Soybeans CFTC Positioning Report: Week Ended October 2, 2026

Executive summary

The CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders report for Soybeans (ZS) for the week ending October 2, 2026, highlights a notable round of speculative long liquidation and commercial short-covering as the market retreated from recent multi-month highs.

• Managed Money: Trimmed gross longs by 19,867 contracts and gross shorts by 1,266 contracts, bringing the net long position down from a cycle peak of 265,159 contracts on September 25 to 246,558 contracts (280,875 longs vs. 34,317 shorts).
• Commercial Hedgers (Producer/Merchant): Aggressively covered short positions by 17,540 contracts while adding 13,555 longs, cutting their net short position by 31,095 contracts to -291,145 contracts.
• Open Interest: Declined by 24,101 contracts (-2.16%) to 1,090,227 contracts, retreating from the annual peak of 1,114,328 set the prior week.
• Price & Positioning Alignment: Front-month futures fell from 1320.00 cents/bushel on September 25 to 1277.25 cents/bushel on October 2. The price drop accompanied by falling open interest and large managed money long reductions confirms profit-taking and long-side de-risking.

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Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

Category	Gross Long	Gross Short	Spreading	Net Position (2026-10-02)	Prior Net (2026-09-25)	Net WoW Change
Managed Money	280,875	34,317	132,706	+246,558	+265,159	-18,601
Producer/Merchant	341,596	632,741	—	-291,145	-322,240	+31,095
Swap Dealers	123,984	65,814	21,282	+58,170	+64,696	-6,526
Other Reportables	64,508	54,194	75,363	+10,314	+16,422	-6,108
Nonreportable (Small Traders)	49,913	73,810	—	-23,897	-24,037	+140

• Managed Money Positioning: Despite this week's pullback of 18,601 net contracts, fund positioning remains historically elevated. Managed money net length had surged from under +20,000 contracts in early January 2026 to over +265,000 contracts in late September. Gross longs still represent 25.8% of total open interest, while gross shorts sit near annual lows at 3.1%.
• Commercial Net Positioning: Commercial net short exposure of -291,145 contracts has eased from the year-to-date extreme short exposure of -322,240 contracts seen on September 25, reflecting active harvest-season pricing and commercial buying into the price dip.

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Flows and week-over-week changes

• Managed Money:
  • Gross Longs: -19,867 contracts (-6.61% WoW)
  • Gross Shorts: -1,266 contracts (-3.56% WoW)
  • Spreading: -5,107 contracts (-3.71% WoW)
  • Active long traders dropped from 121 to 109, while short traders expanded from 27 to 35.
• Producer/Merchant:
  • Gross Longs: +13,555 contracts (+4.13% WoW)
  • Gross Shorts: -17,540 contracts (-2.70% WoW)
  • Active long traders rose from 161 to 169, while short traders fell from 259 to 254.
• Swap Dealers & Other Reportables:
  • Swap dealers reduced gross longs by 6,679 contracts and reduced shorts by 153 contracts, lowering their net long to 58,170 contracts.
  • Other Reportables shed 5,275 longs and added 833 shorts, trimming net long exposure by 6,108 contracts to 10,314 contracts.

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Commercials vs speculators

Managed Money Net Length vs. Commercial Net Length (Past Weeks)
Managed Money Net:  [=========================> ] +246.6k
Commercial Net:     [ <=========================] -291.1k

• Divergence Contraction: The gap between managed money net longs and commercial net shorts narrowed by 49,696 contracts this week, moderating from the extreme multi-year divergence registered on September 25.
• Commercial Behavior: Commercial producers and merchants stepped in as buyers of futures on the break below 1300.00 cents/bushel. Gross commercial long positions expanded to 341,596 contracts—the highest level recorded in the provided history—indicating strong physical processor/originator demand and hedging of forward commitments.

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Open interest and participation

• Total Open Interest: Declined by 24,101 contracts (-2.16%) to 1,090,227 contracts, marking the first significant contraction in open interest since mid-August 2026.
• Trader Breadth: The total number of reporting traders fell from 644 to 625, showing broad participation reduction across both speculative and intermediary desks.
• Trader Concentration:
  • The largest 4 traders held 8.2% of net longs and 12.8% of net shorts.
  • The largest 8 traders held 14.9% of net longs and 19.2% of net shorts.
  • Gross concentration among the top 8 traders stood at 19.1% on the long side and 25.0% on the short side, indicating low single-entity concentration risk on the long side, with commercial shorts maintaining moderate concentration.

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Price context (only using provided series)

According to the provided daily close series for front-month Soybeans:

• Reporting Week Price Action: Between Friday, September 25, 2026 (close: 1320.00) and Friday, October 2, 2026 (close: 1277.25), front-month futures declined by 42.75 cents/bushel (-3.24%).
• Daily Progression:
  • 2026-09-25: 1320.00
  • 2026-09-28: 1287.75
  • 2026-09-29: 1297.75
  • 2026-09-30: 1294.00
  • 2026-10-01: 1283.25
  • 2026-10-02: 1277.25
• Broader Trend: The market rallied from lows around 1058.50 in mid-January 2026 and 1131.25 in June 2026, reaching a peak close of 1331.75 on September 10, 2026, before consolidating between 1300.00 and 1327.00. The break below 1280.00 on October 2 marks the lowest close since late August 2026 (1263.50 on August 27).

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Risks and watchpoints

• Overhang of Speculative Longs: Despite shedding nearly 20,000 long contracts this week, Managed Money still holds 280,875 gross long contracts vs. just 34,317 shorts. A sustained break below late-August price support (1260.00–1263.50) could trigger additional rounds of systematic fund liquidation.
• Commercial Buying Support: The addition of 13,555 commercial long contracts and covering of 17,540 commercial shorts suggests strong commercial buying appetite below 1300.00 cents. A failure of commercial buying to absorb ongoing fund liquidation would indicate weaker physical underlying demand.
• Spreading and Dealer De-risking: Swap dealer net length contracted by 6,526 contracts alongside a decline of 5,107 managed money spreading contracts, showing a generalized reduction in index/dealer exposure. Continued dealer outflows could further dampen market liquidity.