Soybeans COT — Week of October 23, 2026
Soybeans COT Report — Week Ended October 23, 2026
Executive summary
The CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders report for Soybeans (ZS) for the week ended October 23, 2026, reveals significant managed money long liquidation as the market digests its pullback from September highs.
Key takeaways from this reporting period: * Speculative de-risking: Managed money cut net long exposure by 28,482 contracts down to +221,325 contracts (259,970 longs vs. 38,645 shorts), driven primarily by the outright closure of 25,261 long contracts. This marks the lowest net long position for money managers since late August 2026. * Commercial absorption: Commercial hedgers (Producer/Merchant/Processor/User) absorbed speculative selling, trimming their net short position by 15,543 contracts to -287,435 contracts, driven by 19,640 new gross long positions. * Open interest expansion via spreads: Aggregate open interest rose by 21,377 contracts to 1,093,612. The weekly expansion was accompanied by heavy spreading activity, with managed money spreading rising 17,515 contracts to 139,960 contracts. * Price alignment: Front-month futures closed at 1,257.50 cents/bushel on October 23, steadying modestly after slipping from the 1,320.00–1,331.75 peak recorded in September.
Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)
Speculative exposure in Soybeans remains solidly net-bullish in structural terms, though positioning has receded considerably from the late-September peak:
- Managed Money: Net position sits at +221,325 contracts (23.8% of aggregate long open interest vs. 3.5% of short open interest). This compares to a cyclical peak net long of +265,159 contracts on September 25, 2026, and an October 9 net long of +258,066. Positioning remains elevated compared to early 2026, when net managed money stood near neutral (+19,794 contracts on January 30, 2026).
- Producer/Merchant: Net short at -287,435 contracts (329,927 longs vs. 617,362 shorts). This reflects a noticeable retreat from extreme producer short levels reached in late September (-322,240 net short on September 25, 2026).
- Swap Dealers: Net long at +65,797 contracts (124,730 longs vs. 58,933 shorts, with 30,118 spreading). This is an increase from +57,239 net long on October 16/17 and reflects steady institutional index rebalancing demand.
- Other Reportables: Net long at +25,271 contracts (70,558 longs vs. 45,287 shorts, with 89,346 spreading), recovering modestly from +21,292 net long the previous week.
- Non-Reportable (Small Traders): Net short at -24,958 contracts (49,003 longs vs. 73,961 shorts), essentially flat relative to the prior week's -25,360 contracts.
Flows and week-over-week changes
Total open interest grew by 21,377 contracts (+1.99%) to 1,093,612 contracts. The category-level net and gross weekly changes were as follows:
| Category | Gross Long Change | Gross Short Change | Spreading Change | Net Change | Net Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Managed Money | -25,261 | +3,221 | +17,515 | -28,482 | +221,325 |
| Producer/Merchant | +19,640 | +4,097 | N/A | +15,543 | -287,435 |
| Swap Dealers | +2,681 | -5,877 | +8,284 | +8,558 | +65,797 |
| Other Reportables | -477 | -4,456 | -347 | +3,979 | +25,271 |
| Non-Reportable | -658 | -1,060 | N/A | +402 | -24,958 |
The dominant active flow was the heavy liquidation of long positions by managed money (-25,261), combined with a modest addition of short hedges (+3,221). Concurrently, commercial entities brought on 19,640 long contracts against just 4,097 short contracts, serving as the liquidity provider to spec unwinds. Spreading also saw heavy interest, expanding by 17,515 contracts for managed money and 8,284 for swap dealers.
Commercials vs speculators
The structural tension between commercials and trend-following speculators shows signs of cooling:
- Speculative Unwinding: Managed money long positions fell from 285,231 to 259,970 contracts, pulling the long-to-short ratio down from 8.05:1 in mid-October to 6.73:1 as of October 23. The number of managed money gross long traders dropped from 110 to 103, showing that active funds are taking profits or reducing risk.
- Commercial Pricing Defense: Producers and merchants expanded their long book (up 19,640 to 329,927 contracts), narrowing their aggregate short exposure from -302,978 on October 16 to -287,435. Commercial shorts remain significant at 617,362 contracts (56.5% of total market open interest), but the pace of commercial hedge selling has stalled after peaking during the September harvest pricing window (650,281 contracts on September 25).
Open interest and participation
- Total Open Interest: Total open interest rose to 1,093,612 contracts, up 21,377 contracts week-over-week. While open interest is below the mid-September peak of 1,114,328 contracts, participation remains high across the board.
- Trader Counts: Active reporting entities increased to 636 total traders (compared to 629 in the preceding week). Managed money participating long accounts slipped from 110 to 103, while short accounts ticked up from 33 to 36.
- Concentration: Concentration levels among large market participants remained modest:
- Top 4 traders held 8.0% of net longs and 12.9% of net shorts (gross: 10.7% long, 15.9% short).
- Top 8 traders held 14.2% of net longs and 19.3% of net shorts (gross: 18.9% long, 24.1% short).
- This is slightly less concentrated than in late July 2026, when the top 8 gross short traders held 28.6% of open interest.
Price context (only using provided series)
Cross-referencing COT shifts with the daily front-month price series highlights clear momentum exhaustion:
- Rally Phase (July – September 2026): Front-month Soybeans embarked on an aggressive advance from 1,146.75 on July 2, 2026, reaching a high of 1,331.75 on September 10, 2026. Managed money positioning expanded in lockstep, surging from +69,579 net long on July 10 to over +265,000 in late September.
- Consolidation and Pullback (Late September – October 2026): After hovering near 1,320.00 on September 25, prices retreated systematically, falling to 1,277.25 on October 2, dipping further through mid-October, and touching a low close of 1,246.25 on October 21.
- Current Week Action: Between the prior COT report (close of 1,260.50 on October 16) and the current reporting date (1,257.50 on October 23), prices consolidated within the 1,246.25–1,257.50 range. The sharp decline in managed money gross longs (-25,261) confirms that fund liquidation pressured prices toward the October 21 low before finding short-term support.
Risks and watchpoints
- Overhang of Speculative Longs: While managed money trimmed 25,261 longs, the group still holds 259,970 gross long contracts against only 38,645 shorts. If support near the recent low of 1,246.25 gives way, the remaining long overhang creates vulnerability to further cascading stop-outs.
- Harvest Hedging Saturation: Commercial gross shorts (617,362 contracts) have begun to stabilize below the September peak of 650,281. A further deceleration in commercial hedge additions would indicate that seasonal harvest hedge pressure is abating.
- Spreading Surge: The sizable expansion in spreading (+17,515 contracts for managed money to 139,960) suggests market participants are actively shifting exposure between contract maturities or running calendar spreads rather than committing outright directional capital at current price levels.