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Soybeans COT — Week of September 25, 2026

Soybeans COT Report: Week of September 25, 2026

Executive summary

  • Managed Money Bullish Conviction Reaches New Peak: Speculative funds expanded their net long position in Soybeans (ZS) by 23,658 contracts week-over-week, pushing net positioning to +265,159 contracts, a fresh high across the entire reporting history.
  • Commercial Hedging Reaches Record Depth: Producer/merchant participants absorbed speculative buying by increasing gross short positions to 650,281 contracts, bringing their aggregate net short exposure to -322,240 contracts.
  • Open Interest Expansion: Total market open interest climbed by 9,448 contracts to 1,114,328 contracts, marking the highest open interest reading in the recorded dataset.
  • Price Consolidation Near Highs: Front-month ZS futures traded near the top of their annual range, closing at 1,320.00 cents/bushel on September 25, 2026, supported by robust trend-following flows.

Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

Trader Category Gross Long Gross Short Spreading Net Position % of Open Interest (Long / Short)
Managed Money 300,742 35,583 137,813 +265,159 27.0% / 3.2%
Producer/Merchant 328,041 650,281 — -322,240 29.4% / 58.4%
Swap Dealers 130,663 65,967 24,179 +64,696 11.7% / 5.9%
Other Reportables 69,783 53,361 72,926 +16,422 6.3% / 4.8%
Nonreportable 50,181 74,218 — -24,037 4.5% / 6.7%

Historical Perspective & Extremes

  • Managed Money: The current net long exposure of +265,159 contracts surpasses the previous high of +257,258 contracts set on September 11, 2026. This stands in stark contrast to the cyclical lows observed earlier in the year, such as the trough of +19,985 contracts on January 16, 2026, and the mid-summer low of +36,986 contracts on June 26, 2026.
  • Producer/Merchants: The net short position of -322,240 contracts represents the deepest commercial short exposure seen over the analyzed timeframe, reflecting heavy forward hedging into the rally.

Flows and week-over-week changes

Managed money traders executed strong dual-sided bullish repositioning:

  • Managed Money: Added 18,161 long contracts while shedding 5,497 short contracts, alongside a slight reduction in spreading (-903 contracts). The ratio of outright longs to shorts stands at 8.45:1.
  • Producer/Merchant/Processor/User: Added 4,314 long contracts but were outpaced by 14,225 new short contracts, deepening their net short position by 9,911 contracts.
  • Swap Dealers: Reduced gross longs by 6,068 contracts and added 2,990 short contracts, lowering their net long stance from +73,754 to +64,696 contracts.
  • Other Reportables: Trimmed longs by 4,219 contracts and covered 959 short contracts (net change: -3,260).
  • Nonreportables (Small Traders): Marginally adjusted with +208 longs and +1,637 shorts, shifting net positioning to -24,037 contracts.

Commercials vs speculators

Managed Money Net Positioning vs Commercial Net Positioning:
Speculators (MM Net):   [=============> +265,159 ]
Commercials (P/M Net):  [ <=========================== -322,240 ]
  • Divergence: The classic structural divide between commercial hedgers and speculative money managers is at its widest point of the year.
  • Concentration of Commercials: Producer/merchants control 58.4% of all short open interest (650,281 contracts), held across 259 short reporting entities.
  • Speculative Dominance on the Long Side: Managed Money holds 27.0% of total gross open interest on the long side (300,742 contracts across 121 traders), compared to just 3.2% of gross short open interest (35,583 contracts across 27 traders).

Open interest and participation

  • Total Open Interest: Advanced by 9,448 contracts (+0.86%) to 1,114,328 contracts, confirming continued capital entry alongside price firmness.
  • Trader Breadth: Total unique reporting traders reached 644, up from 639 in the prior week and well above the cycle low of 550 traders recorded on January 5, 2026.
  • Concentration Ratios:
    • Top 4 Traders: Account for 9.0% of net long and 13.9% of net short open interest (gross: 11.0% long / 16.1% short).
    • Top 8 Traders: Account for 15.9% of net long and 20.4% of net short open interest (gross: 19.1% long / 26.3% short).
    • Concentration metrics remain stable and moderate, indicating that the large open interest base is distributed across a broad participant group rather than a handful of mega-positions.

Price context

Soybean futures (ZS) have tracked speculative momentum throughout the year:

  • Q1 Base: Front-month futures traded in the 1,058.50 – 1,166.00 range between December 2025 and March 2026.
  • Summer Volatility: Prices rallied to 1,205.75 in mid-May 2026 before pulling back to 1,131.25 in early June.
  • Late-Summer Breakout: A sustained upward trend began in mid-August (advancing from 1,167.75 on August 11 to 1,287.75 by August 28), eventually crossing into the 1,300+ handle in early September.
  • Current Levels: The contract closed at 1,320.00 on September 25, 2026, slightly below the September 10 series high of 1,331.75, confirming that high speculative length is coinciding with multi-month price highs.

Risks and watchpoints

  • Crowded Long Exposure: With Managed Money net length at historical extremes (+265,159 contracts) and gross shorts compressed to just 35,583 contracts, any fundamental shift or technical breakdown could trigger aggressive long liquidation.
  • Commercial Selling Pressure: Commercial short hedging remains aggressive above 1,300 cents/bushel (650,281 short contracts), indicating that producers are actively locking in prices at these levels.
  • Key Technical Thresholds: The market is consolidating near the 1,320.00–1,330.00 zone; a drop below the psychological 1,300.00 support level could force trend-following algorithms to trim long exposure.