Soybeans COT Brief: Week Ending September 11, 2026

Executive summary

Speculative fervor in Soybeans (ZS) futures reached a new peak this week, with Managed Money extending their net long position to the highest level seen in over nine months. This aggressive buying occurred alongside a significant surge in open interest, indicating strong new capital inflows supporting the bullish trend. Conversely, Commercials (Producers/Merchants) deepened their net short position to its most extreme level over the same period, signaling heavy hedging activity at these elevated prices. The market is now defined by this stark divergence, pitting highly bullish speculators against well-hedged commercial entities, creating a tense and potentially volatile environment.

Positioning

• Managed Money (MM) net position surged to +257,258 contracts, a substantial increase from +234,920 last week. This marks the largest net long held by this group in the provided historical data dating back to late 2025.
• Producer/Merchant (Commercials) are positioned on the opposite side, with their net short position deepening to -342,895 contracts, their most bearish stance in the available data.
• Swap Dealers flipped their stance more bearishly, moving to a net long of +91,345 contracts. While still net long, this is a significant reduction from prior weeks, driven by a large increase in short positions.
• Other Reportables hold a modest net long of +16,166 contracts.

Flows and week-over-week changes

The reporting week saw significant activity, with total open interest expanding by a notable 42,860 contracts.

• Managed Money were the primary buyers, adding a substantial 22,765 new long contracts while trimming just 427 shorts, resulting in a net buying of over 23,192 contracts.
• Producer/Merchants increased their hedging activity, adding 12,381 short contracts against a smaller addition of 6,794 longs. This reflects producers taking advantage of higher prices to sell forward.
• Swap Dealers were a significant source of new shorts, adding 18,983 short contracts while only adding 1,762 longs. This flow acted as a counterbalance to the speculative buying.
• Non-reportable traders (often considered small speculators) showed mixed sentiment, cutting 2,015 longs while adding 614 shorts.

Commercials vs speculators

The classic dynamic between hedgers and speculators is at an extreme. - Speculators, led by Managed Money, are overwhelmingly bullish. The MM long position of 293,215 contracts dwarfs their short position of just 35,957. This is a high-conviction bet on continued price appreciation. - Commercials are heavily hedged against a price decline. Their gross short position of 634,427 contracts represents a significant portion of the total market and stands at its highest level in the provided data. This indicates that those with underlying physical exposure see current prices as a valuable opportunity to lock in sales.

Open interest and participation

• Total open interest (OI) jumped to 1,070,401 contracts, the highest level since at least late 2025. The combination of rising prices and rising OI is a technically bullish signal, confirming that new money is entering the market to fund the uptrend.
• Market concentration on the short side remains notable, though it has slightly decreased from the prior week. The largest 8 traders now control 22.3% of the net short position, down from 23.6% last week. This is characteristic of a market where large commercial entities dominate the hedging landscape.

Price context

The data for this report covers the period up to Tuesday, September 8th. During that week, ZS futures prices were strong, trading around the 1294-1304 range. The aggressive buying from Managed Money coincided with this price strength. In the days following the September 8th cutoff, the market pushed to a new high of 1318.25 before pulling back to 1296.0 by Friday, September 11th. This suggests speculators continued to buy into strength, though the market met resistance and saw some profit-taking later in the week.

Risks and watchpoints

• Crowded Speculative Long: The Managed Money net long position is at a multi-month extreme. This concentration makes the market vulnerable to a sharp sell-off if the bullish narrative falters, as a rush for the exits (long liquidation) could accelerate downside momentum.
• Heavy Commercial Selling Pressure: The record net short from commercials will likely act as a formidable headwind for prices. They represent a large pool of natural sellers who are likely to increase their hedging on any further price rallies, potentially capping the market's upside.
• Watch Open Interest: A key indicator to watch will be the trend in open interest. If prices begin to fall while OI also decreases, it would signal that the recent speculative buyers are liquidating, confirming a change in trend.