Looking for current data? Read the latest Soybeans COT report →

Soybeans COT — Week of October 2, 2026

Soybeans CFTC Positioning Report: Week Ended October 2, 2026

Executive summary

The CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders report for Soybeans (ZS) for the week ending October 2, 2026, highlights a notable round of speculative long liquidation and commercial short-covering as the market retreated from recent multi-month highs.

  • Managed Money: Trimmed gross longs by 19,867 contracts and gross shorts by 1,266 contracts, bringing the net long position down from a cycle peak of 265,159 contracts on September 25 to 246,558 contracts (280,875 longs vs. 34,317 shorts).
  • Commercial Hedgers (Producer/Merchant): Aggressively covered short positions by 17,540 contracts while adding 13,555 longs, cutting their net short position by 31,095 contracts to -291,145 contracts.
  • Open Interest: Declined by 24,101 contracts (-2.16%) to 1,090,227 contracts, retreating from the annual peak of 1,114,328 set the prior week.
  • Price & Positioning Alignment: Front-month futures fell from 1320.00 cents/bushel on September 25 to 1277.25 cents/bushel on October 2. The price drop accompanied by falling open interest and large managed money long reductions confirms profit-taking and long-side de-risking.

Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

Category Gross Long Gross Short Spreading Net Position (2026-10-02) Prior Net (2026-09-25) Net WoW Change
Managed Money 280,875 34,317 132,706 +246,558 +265,159 -18,601
Producer/Merchant 341,596 632,741 — -291,145 -322,240 +31,095
Swap Dealers 123,984 65,814 21,282 +58,170 +64,696 -6,526
Other Reportables 64,508 54,194 75,363 +10,314 +16,422 -6,108
Nonreportable (Small Traders) 49,913 73,810 — -23,897 -24,037 +140
  • Managed Money Positioning: Despite this week's pullback of 18,601 net contracts, fund positioning remains historically elevated. Managed money net length had surged from under +20,000 contracts in early January 2026 to over +265,000 contracts in late September. Gross longs still represent 25.8% of total open interest, while gross shorts sit near annual lows at 3.1%.
  • Commercial Net Positioning: Commercial net short exposure of -291,145 contracts has eased from the year-to-date extreme short exposure of -322,240 contracts seen on September 25, reflecting active harvest-season pricing and commercial buying into the price dip.

Flows and week-over-week changes

  • Managed Money:
    • Gross Longs: -19,867 contracts (-6.61% WoW)
    • Gross Shorts: -1,266 contracts (-3.56% WoW)
    • Spreading: -5,107 contracts (-3.71% WoW)
    • Active long traders dropped from 121 to 109, while short traders expanded from 27 to 35.
  • Producer/Merchant:
    • Gross Longs: +13,555 contracts (+4.13% WoW)
    • Gross Shorts: -17,540 contracts (-2.70% WoW)
    • Active long traders rose from 161 to 169, while short traders fell from 259 to 254.
  • Swap Dealers & Other Reportables:
    • Swap dealers reduced gross longs by 6,679 contracts and reduced shorts by 153 contracts, lowering their net long to 58,170 contracts.
    • Other Reportables shed 5,275 longs and added 833 shorts, trimming net long exposure by 6,108 contracts to 10,314 contracts.

Commercials vs speculators

Managed Money Net Length vs. Commercial Net Length (Past Weeks)
Managed Money Net:  [=========================> ] +246.6k
Commercial Net:     [ <=========================] -291.1k
  • Divergence Contraction: The gap between managed money net longs and commercial net shorts narrowed by 49,696 contracts this week, moderating from the extreme multi-year divergence registered on September 25.
  • Commercial Behavior: Commercial producers and merchants stepped in as buyers of futures on the break below 1300.00 cents/bushel. Gross commercial long positions expanded to 341,596 contracts—the highest level recorded in the provided history—indicating strong physical processor/originator demand and hedging of forward commitments.

Open interest and participation

  • Total Open Interest: Declined by 24,101 contracts (-2.16%) to 1,090,227 contracts, marking the first significant contraction in open interest since mid-August 2026.
  • Trader Breadth: The total number of reporting traders fell from 644 to 625, showing broad participation reduction across both speculative and intermediary desks.
  • Trader Concentration:
    • The largest 4 traders held 8.2% of net longs and 12.8% of net shorts.
    • The largest 8 traders held 14.9% of net longs and 19.2% of net shorts.
    • Gross concentration among the top 8 traders stood at 19.1% on the long side and 25.0% on the short side, indicating low single-entity concentration risk on the long side, with commercial shorts maintaining moderate concentration.

Price context (only using provided series)

According to the provided daily close series for front-month Soybeans:

  • Reporting Week Price Action: Between Friday, September 25, 2026 (close: 1320.00) and Friday, October 2, 2026 (close: 1277.25), front-month futures declined by 42.75 cents/bushel (-3.24%).
  • Daily Progression:
    • 2026-09-25: 1320.00
    • 2026-09-28: 1287.75
    • 2026-09-29: 1297.75
    • 2026-09-30: 1294.00
    • 2026-10-01: 1283.25
    • 2026-10-02: 1277.25
  • Broader Trend: The market rallied from lows around 1058.50 in mid-January 2026 and 1131.25 in June 2026, reaching a peak close of 1331.75 on September 10, 2026, before consolidating between 1300.00 and 1327.00. The break below 1280.00 on October 2 marks the lowest close since late August 2026 (1263.50 on August 27).

Risks and watchpoints

  • Overhang of Speculative Longs: Despite shedding nearly 20,000 long contracts this week, Managed Money still holds 280,875 gross long contracts vs. just 34,317 shorts. A sustained break below late-August price support (1260.00–1263.50) could trigger additional rounds of systematic fund liquidation.
  • Commercial Buying Support: The addition of 13,555 commercial long contracts and covering of 17,540 commercial shorts suggests strong commercial buying appetite below 1300.00 cents. A failure of commercial buying to absorb ongoing fund liquidation would indicate weaker physical underlying demand.
  • Spreading and Dealer De-risking: Swap dealer net length contracted by 6,526 contracts alongside a decline of 5,107 managed money spreading contracts, showing a generalized reduction in index/dealer exposure. Continued dealer outflows could further dampen market liquidity.