Soybeans COT — Week of November 6, 2026
Soybeans Commitments of Traders Analysis — Week of November 6, 2026
Executive summary
The CFTC Commitments of Traders report for Soybeans (CBOT: ZS) for the week ending November 6, 2026, reveals an aggressive continuation of fund liquidation. Managed money slashed its net long position by 51,054 contracts week-over-week to 142,727 contracts, driven by a 38,502-contract cut in gross longs alongside 12,552 contracts of fresh short additions. This marks the lowest speculative net long posture since early February 2026, down sharply from the late September peak net position of +265,159 contracts.
Commercial participants absorbed the spec selling, as producer/merchants covered 37,796 short contracts, reducing their net short position from -255,393 contracts to -221,446 contracts. Total open interest contracted by 19,838 contracts to 959,576, following an even larger unwind of 114,198 contracts the previous week. This sustained liquidation coincides with front-month futures breaking below key technical handles, sliding from above $1.32/bu in September down to $1,179.50/bu on November 5.
Managed Money Net Position (Historical Path):
2026-09-25: +265,159 contracts (Peak Net Long)
2026-10-09: +258,066 contracts
2026-10-16: +249,807 contracts
2026-10-23: +221,325 contracts
2026-10-30: +193,781 contracts
2026-11-06: +142,727 contracts (Current Week)
Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)
- Managed Money:
- Gross Longs: 187,713 contracts (19.6% of open interest)
- Gross Shorts: 44,986 contracts (4.7% of open interest)
- Spreading: 141,509 contracts (14.7% of open interest)
- Net Position: +142,727 contracts
- Historical Context: Net positioning has collapsed by 122,432 contracts (-46.2%) in just six weeks since the cycle peak of +265,159 contracts on September 25, 2026. Managed money gross longs have breached below 200,000 contracts for the first time since July 2026, though positioning remains significantly above early-year lows (e.g., net +19,794 contracts on January 30, 2026).
- Commercials (Producer/Merchant/Processor/User):
- Gross Longs: 303,815 contracts (31.7% of open interest)
- Gross Shorts: 525,261 contracts (54.7% of open interest)
- Net Position: -221,446 contracts
- Historical Context: Commercial net short exposure has relaxed significantly from peak harvest hedging pressure seen on September 25, 2026 (-322,240 contracts) and October 9, 2026 (-311,767 contracts).
- Swap Dealers:
- Gross Longs: 125,959 contracts (13.1% of open interest)
- Gross Shorts: 47,991 contracts (5.0% of open interest)
- Net Position: +77,968 contracts (up slightly from +74,340 contracts prior week).
Flows and week-over-week changes
Total market open interest fell by 19,838 contracts (-2.0%) week-over-week to 959,576 contracts. The weekly flows by category were:
| Category | Gross Long Change | Gross Short Change | Net Flow Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Managed Money | -38,502 | +12,552 | -51,054 (Bearish) |
| Producer/Merchant | -3,849 | -37,796 | +33,947 (Bullish/Covering) |
| Swap Dealers | -2,604 | -6,232 | +3,628 (Bullish) |
| Other Reportables | +6,459 | -4,094 | +10,553 (Bullish) |
| Nonreportable (Retail) | -2,398 | -5,324 | +2,926 (Bullish) |
Managed money recorded an outright exit of long length (-38,502 contracts) paired with new outright shorts (+12,552 contracts), while spreading interest rose slightly (+1,522 contracts to 141,509). Other reportables absorbed some risk, lifting gross longs by 6,459 and adding 19,467 spread contracts.
Commercials vs speculators
The divergence between commercials and specs narrowed markedly this week:
- Commercial Short Covering: Producer/merchants drove commercial activity by buying back 37,796 short hedges. With North American harvest progress advancing through late autumn, the surge of seasonal farmer selling has begun tapering off, allowing commercial elevators and processors to lift short hedges against physical cash positions.
- Speculative Unwind: Managed money accounts accounted for the bulk of sell-side pressure. The long-to-short ratio for managed money compressed from 6.97:1 on October 30 (226,215 longs vs. 32,434 shorts) down to 4.17:1 on November 6 (187,713 longs vs. 44,986 shorts).
- Trader Breadth: The number of managed money longs dropped from 105 to 95 traders, while managed money short holders expanded from 28 to 38 traders, showing active trend-following capitulation and new short deployment.
Open interest and participation
- Aggregate Open Interest: Open interest stands at 959,576 contracts, down from the multi-week high of 1,121,298 contracts seen on October 9, 2026.
- Participation: Total market participants remained stable at 614 traders (vs. 613 on October 30). Commercial producer/merchant shorts totaled 254 entities (down slightly from 266), while long commercials dropped to 139 entities (from 181).
- Concentration Metrics:
- Top 4 Net Traders: 8.8% long / 12.3% short
- Top 8 Net Traders: 15.0% long / 18.8% short
- Top 4 Gross Traders: 12.1% long / 14.5% short
- Top 8 Gross Traders: 20.4% long / 23.0% short Concentration remains moderate and well distributed across major commercial and institutional players, with no single entity dominating net market exposure.
Price context
Soybean futures (ZS) have experienced sustained downward momentum throughout October and early November 2026:
- Recent Trajectory: Front-month futures closed at $1,221.75/bu on October 30. During the week leading into the November 6 COT cut-off, daily closes softened steadily: $1,204.50 on November 2, $1,203.00 on November 3, $1,199.00 on November 4, and $1,179.50 on November 5. (Note: Price quotes for November 6 itself are absent from the provided series).
- Trend Comparison: Since closing at a high of $1,331.75 on September 10 and $1,320.00 on September 25, front-month prices have lost $140.50/bu (-10.6%).
- Volume/OI Interaction: The drop in price accompanied by a drop in open interest (-134,036 contracts across the past two reporting periods) reflects classic long liquidation rather than aggressive structural short initiation, though managed money shorts did pick up by 12,552 contracts this week.
Risks and watchpoints
- Managed Money Liquidation Continuation: Managed money still holds 187,713 gross long contracts. If technical support around $1,170–$1,180 fails, further fund stops could be triggered toward the 100,000–120,000 contract gross long levels seen early in 2026.
- Exhaustion of Commercial Short Covering: If producer short covering slows while speculative selling continues, downward price pressure could accelerate without commercial dip-buying.
- Spreading Exposure: Managed money spreading remains high at 141,509 contracts (14.7% of total OI), reflecting substantial calendar spread repositioning as market participants navigate delivery cycles and crop-year spreads.
- South American Weather Window: Positioning changes over the coming weeks will likely hinge on whether Brazilian planting conditions prompt speculative re-engagement or solidify this autumn unwind.