Palladium Physical Market Brief: September 29, 2026

Executive summary

• October delivery cycle opens: NYMEX Palladium (PA) logged 72 delivery notices on the first notice day for the October 2026 contract at a settlement price of $1,201.60 USD.
• Delivery volume context: Initial October intentions (72 contracts) represent a solid start relative to recent non-major delivery months (e.g., August 2026 finished with 36 contracts MTD), though below the major September 2026 contract cycle (262 contracts MTD).
• Physical vs. speculative positioning divergence: While physical market participants stepped in to stop 72 contracts at lower price levels ($1,201.60/oz), speculative positioning remains heavily net short (-6,006 contracts in Managed Money), presenting an asymmetric squeeze risk if physical off-take continues.

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Delivery intentions (today + MTD context)

• Today's activity (Intent Date: 2026-09-29):
  • Contract: October 2026 Palladium Futures (NYMEX)
  • Daily notices issued / stopped: 72 contracts
  • Delivery date: October 1, 2026
  • Settlement price: $1,201.60 USD
  • Month-to-date (MTD) total: 72 contracts

Historical delivery context:

• September 2026 contract cycle: Concluded with 262 MTD deliveries by September 8, 2026. The bulk of deliveries occurred during the transition window: 190 contracts on August 28 ($1,428.60 USD settlement) and 58 contracts on August 31 ($1,362.90 USD settlement), before trickling down into single digits in early September.
• August 2026 contract cycle: Finished with 36 MTD deliveries, featuring small-batch daily deliveries (1 to 3 contracts) settling between $1,322.50 and $1,334.10 USD.
• Price trend into delivery: Physical settlement prices have declined sharply from the late-August peak of $1,428.60 USD down to $1,201.60 USD for the initial October 2026 notices.

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Warehouse stocks

• CME/NYMEX does not publish daily warehouse stocks data for Palladium in this feed (null). Physical tightness must be inferred directly from delivery notice uptake, contract rollover spreads, and settlement behavior.

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COT cross-check

• Reporting date: September 25, 2026
• Total Open Interest: 16,730 contracts
• Managed Money:
  • Long: 4,028 contracts
  • Short: 10,034 contracts
  • Net Position: -6,006 contracts (heavily net short)
• Producer / Merchant:
  • Long: 891 contracts
  • Short: 1,560 contracts
  • Net Position: -669 contracts

Divergence assessment: Speculators are maintaining aggressive short positioning, with Managed Money short exposure (10,034 contracts) representing nearly 60% of total open interest. Despite the sustained downward pressure on prices, physical demand continues to absorb supply on contract rollouts, as seen by the 72 contracts stopped on day one of October.

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Risks and watchpoints

• Short-covering vulnerability: With Managed Money net short 6,006 contracts against an open interest base of only 16,730, any sustained physical off-take or delivery bottlenecks could trigger swift covering in PA futures.
• Delivery pace in October: Watch whether October delivery notices expand beyond the initial 72-lot tranche or taper quickly as observed in August.
• Price floor testing: Monitor whether physical absorption stabilizes near the $1,200.00 USD threshold after dropping over $220/oz since late August.