Palladium Physical Market Brief: July 09, 2026

Executive summary

Physical delivery activity for the NYMEX Palladium contract continues, with 5 new delivery notices issued today. This brings the month-to-date total to a steady 78 contracts. This consistent physical settlement stands in contrast to recent derivatives positioning data. As of late June, Managed Money speculators held a significant net short position of 4,724 contracts. This divergence between bearish paper positioning and ongoing physical demand warrants close observation.

Delivery intentions (today + MTD context)

• Today's Activity: For the active JULY 2026 contract, 5 new delivery notices were issued and subsequently stopped (taken) by participants on July 9, 2026.
• Month-to-Date (MTD): Today's activity brings the total number of contracts settled via physical delivery for the month to 78.
• Context: The steady flow of delivery notices this month indicates consistent demand for physical metal settlement through the futures exchange. Historical daily data was not available for immediate trend comparison.

Warehouse stocks

CME/NYMEX does not publish publicly available data on registered warehouse stock levels for Palladium. Therefore, analysis of stockpile changes is not possible through this channel.

COT cross-check

The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) data, with a reporting date of June 26, 2026, reveals a significant divergence between speculative positioning and physical market activity. - Managed Money: Speculators held a net short position of -4,724 contracts (4,783 long vs. 9,507 short). - Physical vs. Paper: This bearish speculative stance contrasts with the 78 contracts taken for physical delivery month-to-date, suggesting that physical market participants are actively seeking metal despite negative sentiment in the paper market.

Risks and watchpoints

• Positioning Divergence: The primary watchpoint is the tension between the large speculative net short position and the steady physical delivery demand. A continuation of firm physical offtake could pressure short positions, potentially leading to increased volatility if covering is required.
• COT Data Lag: The positioning data is as of June 26. The next COT report will be critical to see if speculators have started to reduce their net short exposure in response to ongoing physical settlement.
• Forward Month Activity: Continued delivery notices against the July contract should be monitored. Any acceleration in the pace of deliveries would further highlight the physical bid in the market.