Palladium Physical Market Brief: October 15, 2026

Executive summary

Physical settlement activity in NYMEX Palladium futures remains muted, with 5 contracts issued and stopped on October 15, 2026, bringing month-to-date (MTD) deliveries to 86 contracts. Settlement prices have settled at $1,121.00/oz, continuing a multi-week softening from above $1,400.00/oz in early September. Speculative positioning via the CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) report shows Managed Money heavily net short, representing significant paper bearishness that has so far matched the downward price drift and subdued physical exchange off-take.

Delivery intentions (today + MTD context)

• Today's Activity (October 15, 2026):
  • Total issued: 5 contracts
  • Total stopped: 5 contracts
  • Contract: October 2026 Palladium Futures (NYMEX)
  • Settlement price: $1,121.00 USD
  • Delivery date: October 19, 2026
• Month-to-Date Context:
  • Cumulative October 2026 deliveries stand at 86 contracts.
  • Following an initial delivery of 72 contracts on September 29 (for October 1 delivery at $1,201.60), delivery volume has slowed to sporadic, single-digit prints: 1 contract on October 5 ($1,167.20), 5 contracts on October 8 ($1,114.90), and 5 contracts today ($1,121.00).
• Comparative Run-Rate:
  • Delivery intensity is significantly lower than the preceding September 2026 contract cycle, which recorded 262 cumulative deliveries by September 8 (following an opening notice print of 58 contracts on August 31 at $1,362.90 and 10 contracts on September 1 at $1,317.20).
  • This reflects both the non-core nature of the October delivery cycle compared to active months and relatively tame commercial demand for exchange-delivered metal.

Warehouse stocks

CME does not publish NYMEX warehouse stocks for palladium in this feed run (warehouse_stocks is null). As a result, eligible vs. registered warrant coverage ratios cannot be calculated directly from this data set.

COT cross-check

The latest CFTC positioning data (as of October 9, 2026) reflects heavy speculative short interest in PA futures:

• Open Interest: 21,060 contracts
• Managed Money: 4,485 longs vs. 13,870 shorts (Net short: -9,385 contracts)
• Producer/Merchant: 1,445 longs vs. 1,263 shorts (Net long: +182 contracts)

Physical vs. Paper Dynamic: Managed Money short positions represent roughly 65.9% of total open interest, underscoring an aggressive speculative bet on continued price weakness. Physical delivery activity aligns with this bearish tone: with only 86 contracts delivered MTD and settlement prices falling from $1,425.90 on September 3 to $1,121.00 today, there is currently no evidence of physical tightness on the exchange to challenge the prevailing paper short position.

Risks and watchpoints

• Short-Covering Vulnerability: With Managed Money short exposure spanning 13,870 contracts in a market with only 21,060 contracts of total open interest, the market structure remains heavily asymmetric. Any sudden disruption in mine supply or an unexpected jump in delivery stops could trigger an abrupt short squeeze.
• Delivery Deceleration: Watch whether October deliveries stall completely before contract expiration. Further sub-5 contract prints indicate end-users are comfortable securing metal off-exchange via bilateral contracts rather than taking delivery through NYMEX.
• Price Support Around $1,100: Settlement prices stabilized slightly from $1,114.90 on October 8 to $1,121.00 on October 15. A failure to hold this band could invite fresh speculative selling.