Palladium Physical Market Brief: October 5, 2026

Executive summary

Physical delivery activity for NYMEX Palladium (PA) slowed to a minimal pace today, with 1 contract issued and stopped for the October 2026 delivery cycle at a settlement price of $1,167.20/oz. This brings month-to-date (MTD) deliveries to 73 contracts, following an initial tranche of 72 notices posted on September 29. Total delivery demand in the current October contract remains well below the volumes observed during the September 2026 cycle (which totaled 262 contracts). The muted physical delivery pace coincides with significant speculative short positioning in CFTC data and a steady decline in settlement prices from late-August levels above $1,428.00/oz.

---

Delivery intentions (today + MTD context)

• Today's activity (October 5, 2026):

  • Contracts issued/stopped: 1 contract
  • Contract month: October 2026 Palladium Futures (NYMEX)
  • Settlement price: $1,167.20/oz
  • Intent date: October 5, 2026 (Delivery date: October 7, 2026)
  • Month-to-date total: 73 contracts

• Historical context & trend:

  • October 2026 cycle: Activity opened on September 29 with 72 contracts issued and stopped (settlement $1,201.60/oz). Since then, physical demand has tapered off sharply to just 1 contract today.
  • Comparison to September 2026 cycle: The prior active delivery month experienced far stronger physical uptake, opening with 190 contracts on August 28 (settlement $1,428.60/oz), adding 58 contracts on August 31, and eventually reaching an MTD cumulative total of 262 contracts by September 8.

---

Warehouse stocks

• CME/NYMEX warehouse stock data is not published or reported in the current physical feed for this metal.

---

COT cross-check

As of the latest CFTC report (as of October 2, 2026):

• Open Interest: 18,602 contracts
• Managed Money: 3,740 Long | 11,702 Short (Net Short: -7,962 contracts)
• Producer/Merchant: 1,244 Long | 1,341 Short (Net Short: -97 contracts)

Positioning vs. Physical Divergence: Managed Money accounts hold a dominant net short stance representing roughly 42.8% of total open interest. This heavily bearish speculative stance aligns with softening physical delivery demand (73 MTD contracts in October vs. 262 in September) and ongoing settlement price depreciation ($1,167.20 vs. $1,428.60 on August 28). There is currently no physical delivery squeeze challenging the heavy speculative short overhang.

---

Risks and watchpoints

• Short-covering vulnerability: With Managed Money short exposure at 11,702 contracts against total open interest of 18,602, any sudden supply bottleneck or unexpected surge in physical delivery stops could trigger a sharp, positioning-driven short squeeze.
• Secondary delivery volumes: Watch whether October contract deliveries remain subdued or pick up late in the cycle, which would signal emerging off-exchange tightness.
• Price floor testing: Continued price weakness below the $1,167.20 level may test producer hedging margins (currently near-flat with commercial net short at -97 contracts).