Gasoline RBOB — COT Positioning Analysis (Week Ended October 2, 2026)

Executive summary

The CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders report for Gasoline RBOB futures (RB) for the week ending October 2, 2026, shows broad-based gross position liquidation across both speculative and commercial categories. Total open interest contracted sharply by 18,245 contracts (-5.05%) to 342,854 contracts.

Managed money pared risk on both sides of the ledger, trimming longs by 3,529 contracts and covering 1,677 shorts, reducing its net long position modestly to +94,186 contracts from +96,038 contracts the previous week. Commercials also engaged in sizeable gross liquidation, led by producer/merchants covering 8,544 shorts while trimming 5,991 longs. Despite this mild position trimming, speculative net length remains near multi-month highs, coinciding with front-month prices consolidating near cyclical highs above $3.30/gal.

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Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

• Managed Money: Net position stands at +94,186 contracts (104,795 long vs. 10,609 short), holding 30.6% of total open interest on the long side and just 3.1% on the short side. This marks a minor pullback from the peak net length recorded the prior week on September 25, 2026 (+96,038 contracts), but sits well above the mid-year lows when net managed money stood around +57,000 to +65,000 contracts (e.g., +57,720 contracts on May 15, 2026).
• Producer/Merchant: Net short exposure moderated to -90,259 contracts (82,029 long vs. 172,288 short) compared to -92,812 contracts the prior week. Commercial hedging remains heavy, accounting for 50.3% of total open interest on the short side.
• Swap Dealers: Net long position widened to +12,070 contracts (53,392 long vs. 41,322 short), an increase from +8,263 contracts net long on September 25.
• Other Reportables: Net short stands at -28,955 contracts (8,491 long vs. 37,446 short).
• Non-Reportable (Small Traders): Net long sits at +12,958 contracts (25,684 long vs. 12,726 short).

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Category               Gross Long    Gross Short    Net Position    % of Total OI
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Managed Money             104,795         10,609         +94,186            30.6%
Producer/Merchant          82,029        172,288         -90,259            23.9% (L) / 50.3% (S)
Swap Dealers               53,392         41,322         +12,070            15.6% (L) / 12.1% (S)
Other Reportables           8,491         37,446         -28,955             2.5% (L) / 10.9% (S)
Non-Reportable             25,684         12,726         +12,958             7.5% (L) /  3.7% (S)
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Flows and week-over-week changes

The reporting week ending October 2, 2026, was dominated by net position reductions across major market participants:

• Managed Money: Longs fell by 3,529 contracts while shorts decreased by 1,677 contracts. Managed money spreading positions also contracted by 972 contracts to 37,254 contracts. The managed money net position decreased by 1,852 contracts.
• Producer/Merchant: Producers and merchants shed 5,991 long contracts and bought back 8,544 short contracts, reducing their net short position by 2,553 contracts.
• Swap Dealers: Dealers added 1,060 gross longs and covered 2,747 gross shorts, expanding their net long position by 3,807 contracts. Spreading among swap dealers dropped by 2,374 contracts to 10,854.
• Other Reportables & Non-Reportables: Other reportables shed 1,859 longs and added 183 shorts (spreading fell 2,751). Non-reportable traders reduced longs by 1,829 contracts and added 637 shorts.

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Commercials vs speculators

Managed Money Net vs Producer/Merchant Net (Recent Progression):
Date          Managed Money Net    Producer/Merchant Net
2026-08-28        +79,652                -95,522
2026-09-04        +89,215               -100,969
2026-09-11        +92,848               -102,029
2026-09-18        +83,171                -91,473
2026-09-25        +96,038                -92,812
2026-10-02        +94,186                -90,259

The dynamic between speculative buyers and commercial hedgers reflects a market that has seen speculative appetite swell through August and September, absorbing producer selling. As managed money pushed gross longs above 100,000 contracts over the past month, producer short hedging expanded to accommodate the flow.

In the latest week, the reduction in producer shorts (-8,544) outpaced speculative long liquidation (-3,529), indicating commercial short-covering into quarter-end position squaring.

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Open interest and participation

• Total Open Interest: Declined by 18,245 contracts (-5.05%) to 342,854 contracts, reversing the buildup seen earlier in September (peaking at 365,028 on September 11, 2026).
• Trader Breadth: The total number of reporting traders fell from 240 to 226.
  • Managed money long trader count fell from 70 to 67, while short traders dropped from 14 to 12.
  • Producer/merchant long count declined from 58 to 56, and short count fell from 80 to 73.
• Concentration:
  • The largest 4 traders held 9.1% of net long and 18.7% of net short positions (up slightly from 18.1% short the prior week).
  • The largest 8 traders accounted for 16.8% of net long and 26.5% of net short positions.
  • On a gross basis, the top 8 traders held 24.6% of gross longs and 34.5% of gross shorts.

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Price context

Front-month Gasoline RBOB futures traded in an elevated, volatile band throughout the late-summer and early-autumn rally:

• Price Trajectory: Prices rallied from the $2.30–$2.40 range in late June/early July to cross $2.80 in late August, eventually breaking above $3.00/gal in early September.
• Reporting Window: Over the latest reporting week (Tuesday, September 29 close at $3.1071 to Friday, October 2 close at $3.3134), RBOB futures staged an intra-week push, reaching an interim closing high of $3.4014/gal on October 1 before settling back to $3.3134/gal on October 2.
• Price vs COT Alignment: The concurrent drop in open interest (-18,245) alongside volatile price action around the $3.30–$3.40 level signals short-covering and speculative profit-taking rather than fresh capital entering the market at new highs.

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Risks and watchpoints

• Crowded Speculative Longs: Managed money net length remains near top-tier levels (+94,186 contracts, with gross longs at 104,795). Any shift in fundamental refined-product demand or seasonal weakness could trigger an accelerated wave of speculative long liquidation.
• Open Interest Contraction: The sharp drop in aggregate open interest suggests participants were de-risking around the quarter-end/month-end period rather than aggressively bidding the breakout above $3.30.
• Producer Hedging Thresholds: While producers covered shorts this week, their gross short base remains significant at 172,288 contracts. Continued rallies above $3.40/gal will likely attract renewed commercial supply hedging.