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Gasoline RBOB COT — Week of October 9, 2026

Gasoline RBOB — COT Positioning Brief (Week Ended October 9, 2026)

Executive summary

The CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders report for Gasoline RBOB futures (RB) for the week ending October 9, 2026, highlights sustained speculative bullishness colliding with persistent commercial short hedging against elevated spot and prompt futures levels.

  • Managed Money: Net position expanded by 2,900 contracts week-over-week to +97,086 contracts (+109,150 longs vs. 12,064 shorts). Speculators remain heavily tilted long, holding nearly 31.3% of total open interest on the gross long side, close to multi-month highs.
  • Commercial Positioning: Producer/merchants expanded their net short exposure to -95,281 contracts (82,103 longs vs. 177,384 shorts), with gross short additions (+5,096 contracts) outpacing modest long additions (+74 contracts).
  • Open Interest & Flow: Total open interest rebounded modestly by 5,846 contracts to 348,700 contracts, recovering from the steep reduction seen the week prior (342,854 contracts on October 2).
  • Price Alignment: Daily prompt prices hovered in an elevated band between $3.2304 and $3.3158 per gallon during the reporting window, settling at $3.2709 on October 9. Speculative positioning remains sticky near peak bull levels even as the upward price momentum consolidates after breaching $3.40 earlier in the month.

Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

Positioning remains near the upper quadrant of the 2026 range for speculative money, while producer hedging remains deep in net short territory:

  • Managed Money Net Positioning:

    • October 9, 2026: +97,086 contracts (109,150 longs vs. 12,064 shorts).
    • Recent Extremes: Net long positioning peaked recently at +96,038 contracts on September 25 (108,324 longs vs. 12,286 shorts) and sits slightly below early-September gross long marks (106,371 longs on September 11), but net length of +97,086 now marks the highest net long position recorded across the provided 2026 series. This contrasts sharply with early spring levels, when net length troughed at +59,177 contracts on April 10, 2026 (63,811 longs vs. 4,634 shorts).
    • Spreading: Managed money spreading stands at 39,616 contracts (11.4% of total open interest), up from 37,254 contracts on October 2, but below peak summer levels above 44,000 contracts.

  • Producer/Merchant Net Positioning:

    • October 9, 2026: -95,281 contracts (82,103 longs vs. 177,384 shorts).
    • Context: Net short exposure deepened from -90,259 contracts on October 2. While gross short exposure of 177,384 contracts remains below the extremes witnessed in February 2026 (>268,000 short contracts when total open interest was >460,000), producers are maintaining heavy net short hedging at 50.9% of gross market interest.

  • Swap Dealers:

    • October 9, 2026: Net long +11,231 contracts (52,144 longs vs. 40,913 shorts).
    • Context: Swap dealers trimmed their net length slightly from +12,070 contracts on October 2 (53,392 longs vs. 41,322 shorts), yet remain substantially more long than they were earlier in the year (e.g., net long of just +724 contracts on April 10, 2026).

  • Other Reportables & Non-Reportables:

    • Other Reportables: Net short -26,555 contracts (10,021 longs vs. 36,576 shorts), softening marginally from -28,955 contracts net short on October 2.
    • Non-Reportable (Retail/Small Traders): Net long +13,519 contracts (26,080 longs vs. 12,561 shorts), essentially stable compared to +12,958 contracts net long on October 2.

Flows and week-over-week changes

Between October 2, 2026, and October 9, 2026, positioning shifts reflected renewed long accumulation by institutional money and aggressive short hedging by physical producers:

  • Managed Money:
    • Gross Longs: +4,355 contracts (to 109,150)
    • Gross Shorts: +1,455 contracts (to 12,064)
    • Spreading: +2,362 contracts (to 39,616)
    • Net Change: +2,900 contracts
  • Producer/Merchant:
    • Gross Longs: +74 contracts (to 82,103)
    • Gross Shorts: +5,096 contracts (to 177,384)
    • Net Change: -5,022 contracts
  • Swap Dealers:
    • Gross Longs: -1,248 contracts (to 52,144)
    • Gross Shorts: -409 contracts (to 40,913)
    • Spreading: -869 contracts (to 9,985)
    • Net Change: -839 contracts
  • Other Reportables:
    • Gross Longs: +1,530 contracts (to 10,021)
    • Gross Shorts: -870 contracts (to 36,576)
    • Spreading: -754 contracts (to 19,601)
    • Net Change: +2,400 contracts
  • Non-Reportables:
    • Gross Longs: +396 contracts (to 26,080)
    • Gross Shorts: -165 contracts (to 12,561)
    • Net Change: +561 contracts

Commercials vs speculators

The divergence between non-commercial trend-followers and commercial hedgers remains prominent:

Managed Money Net:    +97,086 contracts  [■■■■■■■■■■ Long]
Producer/Merch Net:   -95,281 contracts  [Short ■■■■■■■■■■]
Swap Dealers Net:     +11,231 contracts  [■ Long]
Other Reportable Net: -26,555 contracts  [Short ■■■]
  • Speculative Conviction: Managed money gross longs (109,150) outweigh shorts (12,064) by a ratio of 9.05 to 1. Only 13 managed money traders hold short positions, compared to 70 holding outright long positions. This high long-to-short skew indicates an absence of speculative short sellers willing to fade the sustained autumn price strength.
  • Commercial Resistance: The commercial physical sector absorbed this speculative buying by expanding short hedges by 5,096 contracts to 177,384 contracts across 78 reporting entities. Producers continue to utilize rallies toward $3.30–$3.40 to lock in refining margins and forward wholesale values.

Open interest and participation

  • Total Open Interest: 348,700 contracts, up 5,846 contracts (+1.71%) week-over-week. While expanding this week, open interest remains well below early-year highs (469,165 contracts on February 6, 2026), reflecting structural contract rollovers and reduced broader market participation relative to the winter build.
  • Trader Counts: Active reporting entities totaled 238, up from 226 in the prior week.
    • Managed money participants increased from 67 long / 12 short to 70 long / 13 short.
    • Commercial producer participation rose from 56 long / 73 short to 55 long / 78 short.
  • Concentration Ratios:
    • Top 4 Traders: Net position concentration stands at 10.0% long and 17.8% short (gross: 13.4% long, 19.7% short).
    • Top 8 Traders: Net position concentration stands at 17.7% long and 25.6% short (gross: 23.7% long, 32.3% short).
    • Concentration on the short side remains moderate-to-high, reflecting standard structural concentration among large refinery operations and merchant blenders.

Price context (only using provided series)

The price series for Gasoline RBOB futures tracks a sharp multi-month rally followed by a high-level consolidation:

  • Medium-Term Trajectory: Front-contract closes ascended steadily from sub-$1.80 levels in late January ($1.7946 on January 26, 2026) through the $2.30–$2.70 corridor across spring and early summer.
  • Late-Summer Acceleration: Price momentum accelerated sharply starting in mid-August ($2.7458 on August 14), breaking above $3.00 on September 8 ($3.0880), and peaking at an interim high of $3.4014 on October 1, 2026.
  • Reporting Week Action:
    • October 2, 2026: $3.3121
    • October 5, 2026: $3.2304
    • October 6, 2026: $3.3158
    • October 7, 2026: $3.2411
    • October 8, 2026: $3.3117
    • October 9, 2026: $3.2709
  • Technical & COT Intersection: Despite front prices cooling slightly from the $3.4014 peak to settle at $3.2709 on October 9, Managed Money added gross longs (+4,355 contracts), driving net speculative length to fresh multi-month highs.

Risks and watchpoints

  • Crowded Long Vulnerability: With Managed Money long-to-short positioning stretched at 9.05:1 (109,150 longs vs. 12,064 shorts across 70 entities), positioning is heavily asymmetrical. Any macroeconomic or energy-complex catalyst that triggers long liquidation could precipitate rapid downside air pockets.
  • Commercial Capping: Producer/merchants responded to price stability above $3.25 by adding 5,096 short contracts. If spot prices fail to break higher past $3.40, persistent commercial selling may create overhead resistance.
  • Open Interest Trend: Although open interest gained 5,846 contracts this week, it has contracted by more than 120,000 contracts since February peaks. Rebuilding open interest on speculative buying into a narrowing price range warrants close tracking for signs of trend exhaustion.