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Gasoline RBOB COT — Week of September 25, 2026

Gasoline RBOB COT Report: Week of September 25, 2026

Executive summary

The CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 25, 2026, shows a strong speculative surge in Gasoline RBOB (RB) futures. Managed Money expanded its net long position by 12,867 contracts to +96,038 contracts, driven by aggressive gross long additions (+12,408 contracts) and modest short covering (-459 contracts). Gross long positions among money managers reached an annual peak of 108,324 contracts.

Total open interest rose by 3,096 contracts to 361,099 contracts, continuing an autumn expansion from the seasonal lows near 300,000 contracts recorded in May and June. Commercial participants (Producer/Merchant) reduced both gross long (-9,380) and gross short (-8,041) exposures, maintaining a net short position of -92,812 contracts. Price action in the front-month contract reached a high of $3.5993/gal on September 23 before closing the reporting window at $3.3922/gal on September 25, reflecting late-week volatility amidst crowded speculative length.

Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

Speculative length in Gasoline RBOB has reached its highest net level in the dataset:

  • Managed Money Net Positioning: Stands at +96,038 contracts (108,324 longs vs. 12,286 shorts), surpassing previous highs of +92,848 contracts on September 11, 2026, and +88,820 contracts on February 27, 2026. Gross long exposure represents 30.0% of total open interest, the highest single category allocation for money managers over the tracked period.
  • Producer/Merchant Net Positioning: Sits at -92,812 contracts (88,020 longs vs. 180,832 shorts), accounting for 50.1% of the short side of the market. While commercial gross shorts remain lower than the peak hedging levels seen in January–February 2026 (when shorts exceeded 269,000 contracts), net short positioning remains wide.
  • Swap Dealers: Net long +8,263 contracts (52,332 longs vs. 44,069 shorts), dropping from +13,676 net long contracts the prior week as gross short hedging increased.
  • Other Reportables: Net short expanded to -26,913 contracts (10,350 longs vs. 37,263 shorts), driven by significant short additions.
  • Nonreportable (Small Traders): Net long +15,424 contracts (27,513 longs vs. 12,089 shorts), remaining net long throughout the year.
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Category                | Gross Long | Gross Short | Net Position | WoW Change |
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Managed Money           |    108,324 |      12,286 |      +96,038 |    +12,867 |
| Producer/Merchant       |     88,020 |     180,832 |      -92,812 |     -1,339 |
| Swap Dealers            |     52,332 |      44,069 |       +8,263 |     -5,413 |
| Other Reportables       |     10,350 |      37,263 |      -26,913 |     -6,663 |
| Nonreportables (Retail) |     27,513 |      12,089 |      +15,424 |       +548 |
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Flows and week-over-week changes

Position adjustments during the week of September 25, 2026, exhibited significant directional divergence:

  • Managed Money: Added +12,408 gross longs and covered -459 shorts, while spreading positions increased by +749 to 38,226 contracts. The active trader count on the long side rose from 67 to 70.
  • Producer/Merchant: Reduced long exposure by -9,380 contracts and liquidated -8,041 shorts, representing active de-risking as prices traded near multi-month highs.
  • Swap Dealers: Held gross longs steady (+201 contracts) while adding +5,614 short contracts, accompanied by a modest increase of +296 spreading contracts.
  • Other Reportables: Shifted heavily to the short side, adding +8,486 short contracts against +1,823 long contracts, while unwinding -2,858 spreading contracts.
  • Total Open Interest: Increased by +3,096 contracts (+0.86%) to 361,099.

Commercials vs speculators

The structural imbalance between commercial hedgers and directional speculators widened this week:

  • Speculative Concentration: Managed Money long-to-short ratio expanded to 8.82:1, indicating an overwhelmingly one-sided bullish bias among funds. Speculative gross length comprises 30.0% of total market open interest, while speculative short interest is just 3.4%.
  • Commercial Hedging: Producers and merchants hold 50.1% of all open short contracts against 24.4% of long contracts. The reduction in commercial short interest over recent months (from 269,713 in late February to 180,832 currently) reflects seasonal destocking or lower physical inventory hedging requirements as the summer driving season concludes.
  • Trader Breadth: 70 managed money long accounts are active against 14 short accounts, while 80 commercial short accounts stand against 58 commercial long entities.

Open interest and participation

  • Total Open Interest: Sits at 361,099 contracts, moderately higher than the spring troughs (~300,000 to 315,000 contracts in May/June) but below the winter highs of 469,165 contracts seen in February 2026.
  • Concentration Metrics:
    • Top 4 Traders: Account for 12.7% of gross longs and 19.8% of gross shorts (9.3% net long, 18.1% net short).
    • Top 8 Traders: Control 23.2% of gross longs and 31.8% of gross shorts (16.6% net long, 26.1% net short).
  • Trader Participation: Total reporting traders stood at 240, up slightly from 236 the previous week but lower than the 270–282 range observed during Q1 2026.

Price context

Front-month RB futures traded with elevated volatility during the September reporting period:

  • Weekly Trajectory: Prices opened the week at $3.4535/gal (September 21), advanced to a peak of $3.5993/gal on September 23, and experienced a sharp late-week correction to settle at $3.3922/gal on September 25.
  • Medium-Term Trend: The front contract has sustained a broad rally through 2026, rising from $1.828/gal in late January and $2.4489/gal in late June to multi-month highs above $3.50/gal in mid-September.
  • Positioning vs Price: The aggressive accumulation of managed money longs (+12,408 contracts) coincided with the push to $3.5993/gal, but the sharp pullback to $3.3922/gal on September 25 suggests short-term exhaustion and potential overhead pressure on newly initiated longs.

Risks and watchpoints

  1. Long Liquidation Risk: Managed Money gross longs are at a series high of 108,324 contracts. Any sharp downward momentum below the $3.35–$3.40/gal range could trigger cascading stop-outs given the 8.8:1 long/short skew.
  2. Post-Peak Seasonal Roll: As the market transitions into autumn, RBOB gasoline demand typically softens seasonally. Slower commercial absorption could expose fund length to margin compression.
  3. Short Expansion in Other Reportables: The sudden addition of +8,486 shorts by Other Reportables and +5,614 shorts by Swap Dealers signals institutional hedging or non-traditional speculative positioning betting against further upside.
  4. Concentration Vulnerability: The top 8 short traders control nearly a third of all short exposure (31.8%), maintaining significant pricing leverage over clearing and roll dynamics.