Gasoline RBOB Futures COT Report: Week Ending August 14, 2026

Executive summary

Speculative and commercial activity surged in the Gasoline RBOB futures market this week, accompanied by a significant price rally and a sharp increase in overall market participation. Managed Money maintained their substantial net long position, showing conviction in the uptrend, while Commercials engaged in heavy two-way flow, adding significantly to both long and short positions but ultimately reducing their net short exposure. The 20,763 contract increase in open interest alongside rising prices points to new capital entering the market, confirming the bullish momentum. While the speculative long position is formidable, it remains just shy of its year-to-date peak, suggesting the trade may not be fully exhausted.

Positioning

• Managed Money (Speculators): The speculative net long position was largely unchanged, decreasing by a mere 34 contracts to stand at a net long of +69,851 contracts. This position consists of 82,232 long contracts versus only 12,381 short contracts. This is near the top of the multi-month range, though still below the peak of +88,820 contracts seen in late February.
• Producers/Merchants (Commercials): This group remains heavily net short, as is typical for hedgers. Their net short position currently stands at -89,712 contracts (71,588 long vs. 161,300 short). This is a notable reduction from last week's net short of -94,676 contracts, indicating a lightening of hedges.
• Swap Dealers: This category, often providing liquidity or taking the other side of indexed positions, saw their net long position decrease by 1,307 contracts to +23,070 contracts.

Flows and week-over-week changes

This was a very active week, driven primarily by Commercials and a surge in spreading activity. - Managed Money: Experienced a quiet week on a net basis. They modestly trimmed longs (-350) and shorts (-316). The most significant change was a massive increase in their spreading positions by +7,636 contracts, suggesting a focus on calendar spreads or relative value trades rather than outright directional bets. - Producers/Merchants: Drove much of the week's activity. They aggressively added +16,489 long contracts while also adding +11,525 short contracts. This heavy gross activity resulted in their net short position shrinking by 4,964 contracts. - Swap Dealers: Added 565 long contracts but also added a more substantial 1,872 short contracts, reflecting a slightly more bearish tilt. - Other Reportables: Reduced their net short position by liquidating 1,054 longs and adding 2,919 shorts.

Commercials vs speculators

The classic dynamic of bullish speculators versus bearish hedgers continues, but with interesting nuances this week. - Managed Money holds a conviction long of +69,851 contracts, betting on continued price strength. Their gross long position outnumbers their shorts by nearly 7-to-1. - Commercials are the primary counterparty, with a net short position of -89,712 contracts. - The fact that Commercials reduced their net short exposure during a week of strongly rising prices suggests they may be taking profit on existing hedges or see less immediate downside risk, choosing not to hedge as aggressively at these higher levels. The large increase in both their long and short books indicates significant new hedging and risk management activity is taking place.

Open interest and participation

• Open Interest (OI) saw a significant surge, increasing by 20,763 contracts to a total of 325,194 contracts. This nearly 7% weekly increase is a strong signal of new money entering the market and validating the ongoing price trend.
• The total number of reportable traders stood at 244, which is in line with recent weeks.
• Position concentration among the largest four traders remains moderate, accounting for 12.5% of the net short side and 8.9% of the net long side.

Price context

The positioning changes in this week's COT data stream occurred within a very bullish price environment. - The front-month RBOB futures contract rallied sharply, closing at $3.1811 on Friday, August 14, up from $2.9647 the prior Friday. - The substantial increase in open interest concurrent with this price rally is a technically bullish signal, indicating that the move is well-supported by new market participants. - Managed Money's decision to hold their large net long position steady through the rally demonstrates their strong bullish conviction.

Risks and watchpoints

• Crowded Bullish Bet: While not at an absolute record, the Managed Money net long position is substantial. This makes the market vulnerable to a sharp correction if a bearish catalyst emerges, as a rush to liquidate these long positions could accelerate selling pressure.
• Commercial Hedging Behavior: The reduction in the Commercial net short position is a key development. If this trend continues, it would further support the bullish case. However, a reversal, where Commercials begin aggressively adding new shorts, would signal they believe prices are nearing a top and represent an attractive level to hedge.
• Open Interest as a Guide: The recent surge in OI is a critical indicator of the trend's health. Continued increases in OI alongside rising prices would suggest further upside, while a drop-off in OI could be an early warning that the rally is losing momentum.