Palladium Warehouse & Delivery Report: October 8, 2026

Palladium Physical Market Brief – October 8, 2026

Delivery Activity: A modest 5 contracts were issued and stopped today for the October 2026 NYMEX palladium contract (PA), bringing the month-to-date (MTD) delivery total to 78 contracts.
Price Action: Settlement prices dropped further to $1,114.90/oz, continuing an aggressive downtrend from late-August levels above $1,400/oz.
Positioning Alignment: Physical uptake remains thin following the initial First Notice Day delivery wave (72 contracts on September 29), aligning with heavily net-short speculative positioning in CFTC data rather than signaling a physical squeeze.

Current Session (October 8, 2026):
- Contracts Issued/Stopped: 5 contracts (October 2026 NYMEX Palladium Futures).
- Delivery Date: October 12, 2026.
- Settlement Price: $1,114.90 USD.
- Firm Breakdown: Specific clearing firm allocations were not reported in the feed.
Month-to-Date Trend:
- Cumulative deliveries for October stand at 78 contracts, showing an incremental addition of 6 contracts since October 1 (1 contract issued on October 5 at $1,167.20, and 5 contracts today).
- The vast majority of October delivery volume was concentrated on September 29, 2026, when 72 notices were issued at $1,201.60.
Historical Contract Comparison:
- October delivery velocity is tracking significantly lower than the preceding September 2026 delivery cycle. By September 8, the September contract had logged 262 cumulative deliveries, heavily front-loaded by 190 contracts on August 28 and 58 contracts on August 31.

CME/NYMEX does not publish warehouse stocks data for this metal in the current reporting feed (warehouse_stocks: null). As a result, eligible vs. registered inventory backing current delivery intentions cannot be directly verified.

Positioning Overview (as of October 2, 2026):
- Total Open Interest: 18,602 contracts.
- Managed Money: 3,740 longs vs. 11,702 shorts, resulting in an aggressive net short position of -7,962 contracts (42.8% of total open interest).
- Producer/Merchant: Near-neutral stance with 1,244 longs vs. 1,341 shorts (net short -97 contracts).
Physical vs. Paper Dynamic:
- Speculative sentiment is deeply bearish, and physical delivery flow is providing little counter-evidence. The lack of mid-month delivery acceleration indicates end-users and merchants are not aggressively standing for physical delivery to exploit lower prices, keeping paper positioning and physical delivery behavior broadly aligned.

Short-Covering Squeeze Risk: With managed money holding an outsized short position (11,702 contracts) relative to total open interest (18,602 contracts), any unexpected uptick in physical delivery stops could trigger rapid short covering in PA.
Delivery Stagnation: A failure of MTD deliveries to progress beyond the current 78-contract level would confirm sluggish physical off-take, reinforcing downward price momentum.
Data Blindspot: The lack of exchange warehouse inventory reporting obscures physical float availability, making delivery intentions the primary gauge of NYMEX physical clearing pressure.