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Coffee COT — Week of October 9, 2026

Coffee Commitments of Traders Analysis: Week Ended October 9, 2026

Executive summary

The CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders report for Coffee (KC) futures as of October 9, 2026, highlights renewed speculative interest and expanding market participation: - Speculative rebuilding: Managed Money traders expanded their net long position by 2,830 contracts week-over-week (WoW) to +19,036 contracts, driven predominantly by fresh outright buying (+2,472 contracts) alongside modest short covering (-358 contracts). - Commercial hedging expansion: Commercial hedgers (Producer/Merchant/Processor/User) met the speculative buying by expanding net short exposure by 4,348 contracts to -20,375 contracts, primarily via fresh short sales (+3,951 contracts). - Participation rebound: Total open interest increased by 7,898 contracts (+5.1%) to 162,806 contracts, accompanied by an inflow of speculative accounts (Managed Money long trader count rose from 61 to 71). - Historical posture: Speculative net length has rebounded off the late-September 2026 trough of +15,806 contracts, though it remains well below the seasonal highs seen in January (+35,947 contracts) and July (+34,454 contracts).

Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

  • Managed Money Net Position: Stands at +19,036 contracts (Long: 37,043; Short: 18,007), representing a two-week high following the multi-month low recorded on September 25, 2026 (+15,806 contracts).
    • Over the full reporting sample (dating back to December 2025), Managed Money net length reached a high of +35,947 contracts on January 30, 2026, and a low of +11,863 contracts on June 12, 2026. Current positioning sits in the lower third of its annual range.
  • Producer/Merchant Net Position: Stands at -20,375 contracts (Long: 41,575; Short: 61,950 contracts). This reflects a deeper commercial net short stance compared to last week (-16,027 contracts), though significantly less stretched than mid-August 2026 (-35,046 contracts) or late-January 2026 (-33,035 contracts).
  • Swap Dealers Net Position: Sits at +2,863 contracts (Long: 25,576; Short: 22,713 contracts), reinforcing a moderate net long position after hovering between neutral and slight net long throughout September.
  • Other Reportables Net Position: Stood at -2,823 contracts (Long: 9,650; Short: 12,473 contracts).
  • Non-Reportable (Small Traders): Recorded a net long position of +1,299 contracts (Long: 7,650; Short: 6,351 contracts).

Flows and week-over-week changes

Total market open interest grew by 7,898 contracts (+5.10%) to 162,806 contracts. Flow dynamics across key categories include:

  • Managed Money:
    • Gross Longs: +2,472 contracts (to 37,043)
    • Gross Shorts: -358 contracts (to 18,007)
    • Spreading: +1,994 contracts (to 20,373)
    • Net Flow: +2,830 contracts
  • Producer/Merchant:
    • Gross Longs: -397 contracts (to 41,575)
    • Gross Shorts: +3,951 contracts (to 61,950)
    • Net Flow: -4,348 contracts
  • Swap Dealers:
    • Gross Longs: +1,247 contracts (to 25,576)
    • Gross Shorts: -121 contracts (to 22,713)
    • Spreading: +98 contracts (to 4,605)
    • Net Flow: +1,368 contracts
  • Other Reportables:
    • Gross Longs: +116 contracts (to 9,650)
    • Gross Shorts: +225 contracts (to 12,473)
    • Spreading: +2,099 contracts (to 16,334)
    • Net Flow: -109 contracts
  • Non-Reportables:
    • Gross Longs: +269 contracts (to 7,650)
    • Gross Shorts: +10 contracts (to 6,351)
    • Net Flow: +259 contracts

Commercials vs speculators

Speculative sentiment in KC is pivoting back toward net accumulation after several weeks of liquidation during late August and September: - Speculative Aggression: The +2,472 contract surge in managed money gross longs was accompanied by an increase of 10 outright long fund managers (rising from 61 to 71), whereas gross short managers fell by 5 (from 48 to 43). This confirms broad-based buying rather than an isolated outlier position. - Commercial Counterparty Absorption: Producers and merchants accommodated spec buying by adding 3,951 gross short contracts while trimming 397 gross longs. Producers remain comfortably hedged but are not displaying aggressive panic selling; their gross short share of total open interest stands at 38.1%, well below peak levels seen in January (43.7%) and August (43.0%). - Swap Dealers Supporting the Long Side: Swap dealers absorbed selling with +1,247 gross longs and -121 gross shorts, expanding their net long cushion to +2,863 contracts.

Open interest and participation

  • Open Interest: Grew from 154,908 to 162,806 contracts (+7,898 contracts).
  • Trader Counts: Total reportable entities increased by 9 to 346 traders (up from 337 the prior week).
    • Managed money participants active in spreads rose to 60 (from 57).
    • Commercial entities remained stable (77 long traders vs. 78 previously; 79 short traders vs. 80 previously).
  • Concentration:
    • Top 4 Traders: Account for 16.1% of gross longs and 14.7% of gross shorts (net: 12.0% long, 12.0% short).
    • Top 8 Traders: Account for 24.6% of gross longs and 23.9% of gross shorts (net: 17.8% long, 18.7% short).
    • Concentration levels remain moderate and stable, indicating that open interest is evenly distributed among commercial participants and speculative accounts.

Price context (only using provided series)

Note: No daily close price series was provided in the current dataset. As a result, direct correlation between the October 9 positioning changes and specific price trends, momentum levels, or technical inflection points cannot be established from the feed data.

Risks and watchpoints

  • Speculative Momentum Reversal vs. Exhaustion: Managed money net positioning (+19,036 contracts) is beginning to build back toward the median of the 2026 range (+24,000 to +26,000 contracts). If funds add further length, the market will rely on commercial producers to continue offering liquidity.
  • Commercial Producer Selling Tolerance: The 3,951 contract addition to producer gross shorts indicates active commercial supply overhead. A continuation of producer short expansion alongside rising open interest could test the stamina of new fund longs.
  • Spread Activity: Managed money spreading increased by 1,994 contracts to 20,373 (accounting for 12.5% of total open interest), while Other Reportables spreading expanded by 2,099 contracts to 16,334 (10.0% of open interest), reflecting substantial roll and curve positioning across contract months.