Coffee — COT Positioning Report: Week of October 16, 2026

Executive summary

For the CFTC reporting week ending October 16, 2026, the disaggregated Commitments of Traders (COT) report for ICE Futures U.S. Coffee C (KC) showed a sharp pivot in speculative sentiment. Managed money traders aggressively reduced net exposure by 3,766 contracts week-over-week, cutting their net long to 15,270 contracts (35,096 longs vs. 19,826 shorts). This marks one of the lowest net speculative stances observed across the historical series provided, well below the peak net long of 34,843 contracts reached in early May 2026.

Commercial participants (producer/merchants) absorbed this speculative retreat by paring their net short position by 1,311 contracts to -19,064 contracts (42,105 longs against 61,169 shorts). Total open interest ticked up slightly by 820 contracts to 163,626 contracts, indicating steady aggregate participation amid shifting category-level flows.

Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

Across the all-contract view (163,626 contracts open interest):

• Managed Money: Net long stands at 15,270 contracts (21.4% of total long OI vs. 12.1% short OI). This represents a notable compression relative to earlier in the year (e.g., net longs exceeding 32,000–34,000 contracts between late April and early May 2026, and 35,313 contracts in late December 2025). The current net long level is among the softer readings in the historical dataset, just above the recent trough of 11,863 net long contracts seen on June 12, 2026, and matching late-September 2026 levels (~15,806 net longs on September 25).
• Producer/Merchant: Net short stands at -19,064 contracts (25.7% long OI vs. 37.4% short OI). Commercial hedging pressure remains historically muted compared to early 2026, when producer net short positioning reached deeper extremes near -33,035 contracts (January 30, 2026).
• Swap Dealers: Net long stands at 4,812 contracts (25,988 longs vs. 21,176 shorts). Swap dealer net length expanded this week and remains comfortably positive compared to early 2026, when swap dealers ran a net short stance (e.g., -5,257 contracts on December 23, 2025).
• Other Reportables: Net short stands at -1,734 contracts (10,504 longs vs. 12,238 shorts), holding a modest net short position.
• Non-Reportable (Small Traders): Net long stands at 716 contracts (7,309 longs vs. 6,593 shorts).

Flows and week-over-week changes

Week-over-week adjustments across categories were characterized by:

• Managed Money Liquidation and Short Building:
  • Gross longs cut by 1,947 contracts.
  • Gross shorts increased by 1,819 contracts.
  • Spreading positions expanded by 481 contracts to 20,854.
  • Trader count changes reflected this move: gross long accounts dropped from 71 to 58 (-13 traders), while short accounts rose from 43 to 46 (+3 traders).
• Commercial Cover:
  • Producer/merchants added 530 long contracts and covered 781 short contracts, resulting in a net bullish flow of +1,311 contracts.
• Swap Dealer Flows:
  • Added 412 longs and covered 1,537 shorts, expanding net length by 1,949 contracts.
  • Spreading increased by 458 contracts to 5,063.
• Other Reportables & Non-Reportables:
  • Other reportables added 854 longs and covered 235 shorts (net change +1,089).
  • Small traders reduced longs by 341 contracts and added 242 shorts.

Commercials vs speculators

The structural tension between commercials and speculative money continues to reflect a cautious environment:

Category	Gross Long	Gross Short	Net Position	WoW Net Change	% of OI (Gross L / S)
Managed Money	35,096	19,826	+15,270	-3,766	21.4% / 12.1%
Producer/Merchant	42,105	61,169	-19,064	+1,311	25.7% / 37.4%
Swap Dealers	25,988	21,176	+4,812	+1,949	15.9% / 12.9%
Other Reportables	10,504	12,238	-1,734	+1,089	6.4% / 7.5%
Non-Reportables	7,309	6,593	+716	-583	4.5% / 4.0%

Managed money shed substantial bullish exposure, taking the net long position back toward the lower end of its annual range. The rapid departure of 13 gross long funds underscores diminishing speculative conviction. Meanwhile, producer/merchants continue to hold relatively lean gross short exposure (61,169 contracts) compared to periods of intense harvest hedging seen in January–February 2026 (peaking above 75,000 contracts).

Open interest and participation

• Total Open Interest: Stood at 163,626 contracts, reflecting a minor gain of 820 contracts (+0.50% WoW). This keeps market participation within the broader range established during the late-summer and early-autumn months, well below the peak open interest of 213,519 contracts set on June 12, 2026.
• Trader Breadth: Total reporting traders across all categories dropped slightly from 346 to 339.
• Concentration Metrics:
  • Largest 4 gross traders: 15.1% long, 14.4% short.
  • Largest 8 gross traders: 23.8% long, 23.4% short.
  • Largest 4 net traders: 11.3% long, 11.4% short.
  • Largest 8 net traders: 17.0% long, 17.6% short. Concentration remains well-balanced and historically low, showing no single entity or tight cluster dominating market exposure.

Price context

Data Note: Daily price series for the front contract up to October 16, 2026 was not provided in the data feed. Consequently, precise technical and price action cross-checks cannot be evaluated directly from the input series.

Positioning patterns, however, indicate that the recent surge in speculative selling (simultaneous long liquidation of 1,947 contracts and short creation of 1,819 contracts) points to an environment of downward pressure or momentum-driven trend deterioration in coffee futures over the reporting window.

Risks and watchpoints

• Speculative Momentum Reversal: Managed money net length has unwound swiftly from 19,036 net long on October 9 down to 15,270. Continued selling by trend-followers could push net length toward the 2026 low of ~11,800 contracts.
• Commercial Defense: Producer short interest remains contained at 61,169 contracts, suggesting origin hedgers are not actively locking in forward sales at current levels. Any price break could see origin selling dry up, leaving a potential pocket of commercial buying.
• Swap Dealer Accumulation: Swap dealers expanded net longs to 4,812 contracts, up from -5,257 contracts at the start of the series. Sustained index and institutional buying via swap desks provides an underlying structural cushion against deeper fund liquidations.