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Coffee COT — Week of October 2, 2026

Coffee COT Report — Week of October 2, 2026

Executive summary

The Commitments of Traders (COT) report for ICE Coffee (KC) futures for the week ending October 2, 2026, reflects a modest stabilization in speculative positioning following months of net long liquidation. Managed money accounts recorded a slight expansion in their net long position by +400 contracts to +16,206 contracts (34,571 longs vs. 18,365 shorts), arresting a steep decline from summer net long peaks above +34,000 contracts. Commercial participants (producers and merchants) extended their net short exposure by -3,493 contracts to -16,027 contracts, driven by a surge in gross short hedging (+2,901 contracts). Total open interest ticked higher by +1,873 contracts (+1.22%) to 154,908 contracts, remaining near the lower boundary of its 2026 trading range.

Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

  • Managed Money: Held 34,571 long and 18,365 short contracts, resulting in a net long position of +16,206 contracts. This represents 22.3% of total open interest on the long side and 11.9% on the short side.
    • Historical Range Context: Managed money net length sits near the lower extreme of the entire 2026 reporting dataset. After trading at net long levels of +35,947 contracts on January 30, 2026, and +34,843 contracts on May 8, 2026, fund net length fell to a low of +15,806 contracts on September 25, 2026, before posting the current minor rebound (+16,206).
  • Commercials (Producer/Merchant): Held 41,972 long contracts (27.1% of OI) and 57,999 short contracts (37.4% of OI), establishing a net short posture of -16,027 contracts. While more defensive than the prior week's -12,534 contracts, the commercial net short stance remains significantly lighter than the -34,883 contract deficit recorded on May 8, 2026, or the -32,396 contract deficit on January 30, 2026.
  • Swap Dealers: Net long +1,495 contracts (24,329 long vs. 22,834 short), holding 15.7% of total long OI and 14.7% of short OI.
  • Other Reportables: Net short -2,714 contracts (9,534 long vs. 12,248 short), narrowing their net short stance from -5,533 contracts the prior week.
  • Non-Reportable (Retail/Small Traders): Net long +1,040 contracts (7,381 long vs. 6,341 short).

Flows and week-over-week changes

  • Managed Money Flows: Added +1,435 gross long contracts and +1,035 gross short contracts, alongside a small addition of +218 spreading contracts (reaching 18,379 contracts, or 11.9% of OI). The two-way expansion produced a net inflow of +400 contracts.
  • Producer/Merchant Flows: Reduced gross longs by -592 contracts while adding +2,901 gross shorts, expanding the commercial net short position by -3,493 contracts.
  • Swap Dealer Flows: Cut gross longs by -69 contracts and trimmed gross shorts by -405 contracts (+52 spreading), resulting in a net change of +336 contracts.
  • Other Reportables Flows: Added +790 gross longs and aggressively covered -2,029 gross shorts (+228 spreading), marking the single largest net speculative buying shift across categories (+2,819 contracts).
  • Non-Reportable Flows: Shed -189 longs and -127 shorts, shifting net retail positioning by -62 contracts.

Commercials vs speculators

Category              Gross Long   Gross Short   Spreading      Net Position   WoW Net Change
Managed Money             34,571        18,365      18,379           +16,206             +400
Producer/Merchant         41,972        57,999         N/A           -16,027           -3,493
Swap Dealers              24,329        22,834       4,507            +1,495             +336
Other Reportables          9,534        12,248      14,235            -2,714           +2,819
Non-Reportable             7,381         6,341         N/A            +1,040              -62

The structural standoff highlights a speculative footprint that is historically subdued compared to the elevated net length seen in Q1 and Q2 2026. Producers and merchants resumed short hedging after allowing gross shorts to drop from over 75,000 contracts in early 2026 to 55,098 contracts on September 25. The dynamic between managed money (+16,206 net) and producer/merchants (-16,027 net) shows near-perfect structural balance, with swap dealers marginally tilted long (+1,495 net).

Open interest and participation

  • Total Open Interest: 154,908 contracts, up +1,873 contracts (+1.22%) week-over-week. This follows an extended contraction from the year's peak OI of 213,519 contracts set on June 12, 2026.
  • Trader Count: A total of 337 active reporting entities (up from 329 the previous week).
    • Managed Money: 61 long, 48 short, 57 spreading (109 unique funds).
    • Producer/Merchant: 78 long, 80 short (97 unique commercial entities).
  • Concentration Ratios:
    • Top 4 largest traders held 13.6% of net long OI and 12.0% of net short OI (gross: 17.3% long, 13.7% short).
    • Top 8 largest traders held 19.7% of net long OI and 18.4% of net short OI (gross: 26.0% long, 23.2% short).
    • Market concentration remains relatively diffuse compared to earlier periods in 2026 when the top 8 gross short traders controlled over 30% of aggregate OI.

Price context

  • Market Quotations: Price series data for the front KC coffee contract was not provided for this reporting period.
  • Data Gap Note: Direct quantitative correlation between contract settlement levels and weekly net positioning changes cannot be confirmed due to missing price series records.

Risks and watchpoints

  • Speculative Positioning Asymmetry: Managed money net length (+16,206 contracts) sits close to its annual floor after shedding more than half of its net exposure since May 2026. With gross shorts relatively elevated at 18,365 contracts (compared to ~10,000–12,000 contracts during earlier bullish runs), any supply-side catalyst could trigger rapid short covering.
  • Commercial Hedging Inflows: The addition of +2,901 gross short contracts by producers indicates renewed commercial selling into available liquidity, capping immediate upside momentum.
  • Open Interest Base Building: After dropping from >213k contracts in June to ~150k contracts in mid-September, aggregate open interest has gained for two consecutive weeks (+2,577 and +1,873 contracts), indicating fresh positioning is beginning to re-enter the Coffee complex.