Coffee Commitments of Traders Analysis — Week of September 25, 2026

Executive summary

The CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders report for Coffee (KC) futures for the week ending September 25, 2026, highlights an ongoing retreat in speculative length alongside significant short-covering and buying from commercial producers and merchants.

Key developments include: - Managed Money Net Long Erosion: Speculators reduced gross longs by 2,091 contracts and added 2,764 short contracts, shrinking their net long position to 15,806 contracts—the lowest net speculative long position observed across the entire 2026 historical series. - Commercial Short-Covering: Producer/merchants staged an aggressive net buying week, expanding longs by 4,289 contracts while cutting shorts by 3,623 contracts, reducing their net short posture to -12,534 contracts. - Participation & Open Interest: Total open interest increased modestly by 2,577 contracts (+1.71%) to 153,035 contracts, stabilizing after a sustained multi-month contraction from the peak open interest above 213,000 contracts recorded in June 2026.

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Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

Positioning across primary categories for the week of September 25, 2026, shows a distinct transition away from the heavy speculative length that characterized early-to-mid 2026:

• Managed Money:

  • Gross Long: 33,136 contracts (21.7% of total open interest)
  • Gross Short: 17,330 contracts (11.3% of total open interest)
  • Spreading: 18,161 contracts (11.9% of total open interest)
  • Net Position: +15,806 contracts
  • Extremes Context: Managed money net length has undergone a sharp four-week decline from +31,188 contracts on August 28, 2026, +26,729 on September 4, +22,109 on September 11, and +20,661 on September 18. At +15,806 contracts, net speculative length sits at an extended low relative to early 2026 (peaking at +35,947 on January 30, 2026, and +34,843 on May 8, 2026).

• Producer/Merchant:

  • Gross Long: 42,564 contracts (27.8% of total open interest)
  • Gross Short: 55,098 contracts (36.0% of total open interest)
  • Net Position: -12,534 contracts
  • Extremes Context: The commercial net short posture of -12,534 contracts represents the least net short commercial position recorded in the data set, having steadily narrowed from -35,424 contracts in late August and -35,047 contracts in late July.

• Swap Dealers:

  • Gross Long: 24,398 contracts (15.9% of total open interest)
  • Gross Short: 23,239 contracts (15.2% of total open interest)
  • Spreading: 4,455 contracts (2.9% of total open interest)
  • Net Position: +1,159 contracts (down from +3,568 contracts prior week)

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Flows and week-over-week changes

Total market open interest rose by 2,577 contracts week-over-week. Flows across key categories:

Category	Long Change	Short Change	Spreading Change	Net Change
Managed Money	-2,091	+2,764	-390	-4,855
Producer/Merchant	+4,289	-3,623	—	+7,912
Swap Dealers	-384	+2,025	+183	-2,409
Other Reportables	-64	+278	+836	-342
Nonreportable	+198	+504	—	-306

The week-over-week flow was defined by managed money liquidation and new short initiation (combined net reduction of 4,855 contracts), met directly by commercial buying (+7,912 net commercial contracts).

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Commercials vs speculators

Managed Money Net vs. Commercial Net (Contracts):
Managed Money Net:  [====+15,806====]
Commercial Net:     [====-12,534====]

• Speculative De-risking: Speculators continue to dismantle their long book. Gross long positions (33,136 contracts held by 55 traders) are now closely matched by gross short positions (17,330 contracts held by 53 traders), pulling the long-to-short ratio down to 1.91:1, compared to 3.70:1 on August 14, 2026.
• Commercial Accommodation: Commercial entities absorbed the speculative selling. The commercial short book declined to 55,098 contracts, down from 71,525 contracts in mid-August. Simultaneously, commercial long interest grew to 42,564 contracts across 79 traders.

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Open interest and participation

• Total Open Interest: 153,035 contracts (up 2,577 from 150,458 the prior week). This marks the first weekly expansion in open interest following four consecutive weeks of contractions (falling from 163,299 on August 21 to 150,458 on September 18).
• Trader Breadth:
  • Total reporting traders: 329 (down slightly from 331 on September 18 and 355 in late May).
  • Managed Money participant count is nearly balanced: 55 longs vs. 53 shorts (with 55 spreading).
  • Producer/Merchant participation remains robust: 79 longs vs. 78 shorts.
• Market Concentration:
  • Top 4 Traders: Net long 14.7%, Net short 12.6% (Gross: 17.7% long, 14.1% short)
  • Top 8 Traders: Net long 21.0%, Net short 19.4% (Gross: 27.0% long, 23.5% short)
  • Concentration metrics indicate a moderately dispersed market structure with limited single-entity dominance on the gross short side relative to earlier in the summer.

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Price context

• Front-Month Futures Price Data: The price series data for KC is empty in the current feed run. Direct quantitative correlations between daily closing prices and positioning flow changes cannot be computed from the provided payload.

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Risks and watchpoints

• Speculative Overhang Dissipation: With Managed Money net length at its lowest level across the historical window (+15,806 contracts), downside vulnerability stemming from crowded speculative long liquidation has substantially diminished compared to Q2 2026.
• Commercial Hedging Floor: Commercial producer/merchants have reduced their net short exposure to historic lows (-12,534 contracts). A cessation of commercial short-covering or an emergence of fresh producer selling would test whether non-commercial buyers re-enter the market.
• Spread Positioning Contraction: Managed Money spreading stands at 18,161 contracts, down from summer peaks above 39,000 contracts (June 12, 2026), pointing to reduced calendar arbitrage and spread activity across contract months.
• Open Interest Inflection: Monitor whether the open interest rebound to 153,035 contracts represents the start of a structural rebuilding of positions or temporary positioning ahead of contract expirations.