Method

OLS of WTI (M1 − M12) / M1 on US commercial crude + gasoline + distillate stocks vs their 5-year same-week average, Fridays over the last 5 years. Premium = residual × M1, in $/bbl.

A positive premium means the front of the curve is richer than inventories justify. That is where a supply-risk premium would show up, but other things (refinery outages, positioning, regional dislocations) land there too. Each Friday uses only the inventory report published by then.

Context: crude oil volatility (OVX) 58.81, CBOE via FRED, as of Nov 4, 2026.