Feeder Cattle Futures COT Report for the week ending 2026-02-20

Executive summary

This report covers the positioning changes in Feeder Cattle futures for the week ending February 20, 2026. Speculative sentiment turned more bullish, with Managed Money adding to their net long position, pushing it to the second-highest level in the last eight weeks. This was driven by the addition of new long contracts. In contrast, Commercials (Producers/Merchants) also added to both long and short positions, slightly increasing their net short hedge. Open interest saw a modest rise, suggesting new capital entered the market, coinciding with the increased speculative length. The market remains characterized by a significant long position from speculators against a large short hedge from commercial participants.

Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

• Managed Money: The net long position increased to +18,756 contracts (26,317 long vs. 7,561 short). This is a bullish stance and marks the second-highest net long position in the provided eight-week history, just shy of the +18,865 contracts seen on January 30.
• Producer/Merchant: This cohort holds a net short position of -7,702 contracts (7,793 long vs. 15,495 short). This is a substantial hedge but remains below the eight-week peak net short of -8,662 contracts recorded on February 6.
• Swap Dealers: Maintained a net long position of +4,093 contracts (4,932 long vs. 839 short), a slight decrease from the prior week.
• Non-reportable (Retail): Small speculators hold a significant net short position of -6,239 contracts (11,558 long vs. 17,797 short).

Flows and week-over-week changes

Key flows for the reporting week show a clear divergence between large speculators and other groups: - Managed Money was the primary buyer, adding 777 new long contracts while trimming just 20 short contracts, for a net buying of 797 contracts. - Producer/Merchants increased gross positions on both sides, adding 496 longs and 512 shorts. This resulted in a marginal increase to their net short position. - Non-reportable traders were net sellers, liquidating 869 long positions and trimming only 13 shorts, leading to a net bearish flow of 856 contracts. - Swap Dealers were also slight net sellers, reducing their net long by 95 contracts.

Commercials vs speculators

The classic positioning dynamic is firmly in place. Speculators, led by Managed Money, are providing the risk capital with a substantial +18,756 contract net long position. This is being met by heavy hedging from the commercial side, with Producer/Merchants holding a -7,702 contract net short. The scale of the Managed Money net long position suggests strong bullish conviction from funds, while the large commercial short indicates that producers are using current price levels to lock in future sales.

Open interest and participation

• Open Interest: Total open interest rose by 1,097 contracts to 75,376. This increase, alongside the build in Managed Money longs, suggests new bullish positions are being established rather than just short covering. However, OI remains below the peak of 79,277 seen on Feb 6.
• Participation: Managed Money continues to be a dominant force, with their long positions accounting for 34.9% of total open interest. Producer/Merchant short positions represent 20.6% of the market.
• Concentration: The market shows moderate concentration. The 4 largest traders hold 10.1% of the net long and 13.0% of the net short positions. The 8 largest traders account for 18.1% and 18.9% of the net long and short sides, respectively. These levels do not indicate an overly concentrated market.

Price context

Price series data was not provided for this reporting period. Therefore, it is not possible to directly correlate these positioning changes with specific market price action. We cannot determine if the new speculative longs were added during a price rally or if commercials increased hedges into price strength.

Risks and watchpoints

• Crowded Speculative Long: The Managed Money net long position is near an eight-week high. This represents a significant amount of bullish conviction but also introduces the risk of a sharp correction if sentiment sours, as a rush to exit these crowded longs could accelerate any price decline.
• Commercial Hedging Pressure: The large net short from commercials may act as a cap on prices, as producers appear willing to sell at these levels. Any further price appreciation will likely be met with increased hedging activity.
• Diverging Flows: The weekly flow shows Managed Money buying while smaller, Non-reportable traders were sellers. This divergence can signal conviction from institutional money, but it's a trend to monitor. A reversal where funds begin to sell would be a major bearish signal.