Feeder Cattle Futures COT Report: Week Ending 2026-02-27

Executive summary

This report covers positioning in Feeder Cattle futures as of February 27, 2026. The data reveals a growing bullish conviction among speculative traders, with Managed Money extending their net long position to a multi-week high. This move was primarily driven by short-covering, suggesting a decrease in bearish bets. Commercial participants (Producers/Merchants) remain significantly net short, fulfilling their typical role as hedgers against the speculative length. Overall open interest expanded, indicating that new capital flowed into the market during a week of increasing speculative optimism.

Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

• Managed Money: This key speculative group increased its net long position to +19,634 contracts (26,613 long vs. 6,979 short). This is the largest net long position recorded over the past eight weeks, signaling a clear and strengthening bullish sentiment.
• Producer/Merchant: Commercials are positioned net short -7,626 contracts (8,236 long vs. 15,862 short). While this is a substantial short position, it is not an extreme for the recent period; their largest net short was -8,662 contracts on February 6th.
• Swap Dealers: This group holds a net long position of +4,144 contracts (4,900 long vs. 756 short). Their positioning has remained relatively stable and net long over the last several weeks.

Flows and week-over-week changes

The reporting week saw a notable shift in speculative positioning, with a significant increase in open interest. - Managed Money Flow: The net position increased by 878 contracts. This was composed of a modest addition of new longs (+296 contracts) but a more significant reduction in short positions (-582 contracts). The move was therefore dominated by short-covering. - Producer/Merchant Flow: Commercials slightly reduced their net short stance. They added both longs (+443 contracts) and shorts (+367 contracts), indicating active hedging on both sides of the market. - Non-Reportable Flow: Smaller, non-reportable traders (often considered retail) showed a notable bearish turn, cutting their net long position by 496 contracts. This was driven by a large addition of new short positions (+790 contracts).

Commercials vs speculators

The classic divergence between commercial and speculative interests is prominent and growing in the Feeder Cattle market. - Speculators (Managed Money) are positioned at their most bullish level in at least eight weeks, betting on price appreciation. Their gross long position represents 34.2% of total open interest, while their shorts account for only 9.0%. - Commercials (Producer/Merchant) are the primary counterparties, holding a large net short position. Their gross short position of 15,862 contracts (20.4% of OI) dwarfs their long position of 8,236 contracts (10.6% of OI), reflecting widespread producer hedging to lock in current prices.

Open interest and participation

• Open Interest (OI): Total open interest increased by 2,539 contracts to a total of 77,915. This rise in OI alongside the build in speculative net length is a bullish confirmation signal, suggesting new money is entering the market to support the long side. Current OI is now near the highs of the past two months.
• Trader Participation: The market consists of 296 total reportable traders. The Managed Money category is composed of 59 long traders versus only 17 short traders, highlighting the lopsided bullish sentiment within this group.
• Concentration: The largest four traders control 9.8% of the net long positions but a more significant 12.5% of the net short positions. This indicates that the short side of the market is slightly more concentrated among a few large players than the long side.

Price context

Price series data was not provided for the reporting period. Therefore, a direct correlation between positioning changes and daily price action cannot be made in this analysis.

Risks and watchpoints

• Crowded Speculative Long: The Managed Money net long position at an 8-week high makes the market vulnerable to a long liquidation event. Should the fundamental or technical picture deteriorate, an unwind of this crowded trade could accelerate any price declines.
• Increased Open Interest: The flow of new money into the market adds conviction to the bullish trend. A key watchpoint will be whether open interest continues to rise. A decline in OI while the net long remains extended could be an early warning sign that the trend is losing momentum.
• Commercial Hedging Pressure: The substantial commercial short position can act as a natural cap on prices, as producers may increase their selling on rallies. Conversely, any event that forces these hedgers to buy back their shorts could lead to a short-covering rally.