Feeder Cattle (FC) COT Report: Week Ended October 9, 2026

Executive summary

The Commitments of Traders (COT) report for Feeder Cattle futures for the week ending October 9, 2026, highlights modest spec re-engagement alongside an acceleration in commercial hedging:

• Managed Money Expands Net Long: Speculative funds added 1,598 gross long contracts and 378 gross short contracts, lifting their net long stance by 1,220 contracts to +9,386. This marks a continued gradual recovery from the September 2026 net-long trough of +7,211 contracts.
• Producers Step Up Protection: Commercial producer/merchants drove the week’s primary supply response, adding 1,346 short contracts against just 181 long contracts, nearly expanding their net short position by 40% to -4,074 contracts.
• Open Interest Edging Higher: Total open interest increased by 1,488 contracts (+2.39%) to 63,656 contracts, confirming net capital inflows as both money managers and commercials expanded exposures.
• Price Data Absence: Because front-month settlement data was not provided in this reporting run, momentum and technical interactions cannot be independently verified and must be gauged from order flows.

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Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

Speculative exposure in Feeder Cattle remains in the lower-middle quartile of its 2026 historical range, having retreated significantly from spring peaks:

• Managed Money Net Stance:
  • Current Net: +9,386 contracts (18,962 gross longs vs. 9,576 gross shorts).
  • Recent Extremes: Well below the year-to-date peak recorded on April 17, 2026, when net length reached +21,951 contracts (28,402 longs vs. 6,451 shorts). However, positioning is up noticeably from the September 18, 2026 low of +7,211 contracts.
  • Share of Market: Managed money holds 29.8% of total gross open interest on the long side and 15.0% on the short side, with calendar/inter-market spreading accounting for an additional 16.6% (10,577 contracts).
• Swap Dealers:
  • Swap dealers maintained their deep structural net long bias at +7,144 contracts (7,567 longs vs. 423 shorts), representing 11.9% of open interest on the long side and only 0.7% on the short side.
• Other Reportables:
  • Other reportable market participants remain heavily biased to the short side, holding a net short position of -10,321 contracts (2,839 longs vs. 13,160 shorts).
• Non-Reportable (Small Traders):
  • Non-reportable traders held 9,522 longs versus 11,657 shorts, sitting net short -2,135 contracts.

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Flows and week-over-week changes

The weekly change in positioning for the week of October 9, 2026, was driven by fresh speculative length paired with commercial forward selling:

Category	Gross Long Change	Gross Short Change	Net Weekly Change	Spreading Change
Managed Money	+1,598	+378	+1,220	+325
Producer/Merchant	+181	+1,346	-1,165	—
Swap Dealers	+363	+179	+184	-307
Other Reportables	+431	+505	-74	-1,029
Non-Reportables	-74	+91	-165	—

• Managed Money Long Accumulation: The addition of 1,598 gross long contracts represents the largest single-week gross long addition by funds since early May 2026, indicating renewed trend-following interest.
• Producer Hedging Push: Producer shorts grew by 1,346 contracts, absorbing the vast majority of non-commercial buying pressure.

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Commercials vs speculators

A clear dichotomy emerged this reporting period between speculative momentum buyers and commercial risk managers:

• Commercial Response (Producers/Merchants):
  • Producer/merchants increased gross shorts to 11,366 contracts (up from 10,020 the week prior), while gross longs crept up slightly to 7,292 contracts.
  • Their net position widened from -2,909 contracts to -4,074 contracts. The appetite for producers to lock in forward pricing suggests that commercial feedlots and livestock producers viewed recent price levels as attractive for forward sales.
• Speculative Stance (Managed Money):
  • Managed money expanded gross length to 18,962 contracts while short interest inched up to 9,576 contracts.
  • Managed money long-to-short ratio improved from 1.89:1 to 1.98:1 week-over-week, reflecting steady, though not euphoric, bullish conviction.

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Open interest and participation

Participation showed signs of stabilizing after several months of steady contraction:

• Open Interest: Total open interest rose by 1,488 contracts to 63,656 contracts (+2.39%). While up from the annual lows set in mid-June 2026 (56,937 contracts), it remains well below the early February 2026 high of 79,277 contracts.
• Trader Diversity:
  • Total reporting trader count ticked up slightly to 216 traders (from 214 in the prior week), though down from over 290 traders observed during Q1 2026.
  • Active managed money longs numbered 42 accounts (up from 22 in the previous week's disaggregated count), whereas managed money short accounts decreased to 23 (down from 35), reflecting broader participation among fund bulls.
• Concentration Ratios:
  • The 4 largest traders accounted for 12.4% of net long exposure and 18.0% of net short exposure.
  • The 8 largest traders controlled 18.8% of net long positions and 25.0% of net short positions.
  • On a gross basis, the top 8 traders held 25.4% of long contracts and 29.3% of short contracts, reflecting balanced institutional concentration.

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Price context (only using provided series)

• Price Data Limitations: Front-month settlement pricing was not provided for this reporting period (price_series is empty).
• Flow Implications: Historically, simultaneous expansions in managed money gross longs (+1,598) and producer gross shorts (+1,346) accompanied by rising open interest (+1,488) are characteristic of an uptrend where speculative buying is matched by producer scale-up hedging. However, in the absence of explicit quote feeds, this pricing direction cannot be confirmed from this dataset.

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Risks and watchpoints

• Commercial Overhead Supply: The sharp influx of 1,346 producer short contracts indicates heavy selling overhead. If buying appetite stalls, aggressive commercial hedging could cap further upside.
• Fund Long Liquidation Hazard: Although managed money net length (+9,386 contracts) is far below April’s peak (+21,951), gross fund length stands at nearly 19,000 contracts against a market of only 63,656 total open interest (funds hold ~30% of total long open interest). Any shift in sentiment could trigger swift long liquidation into a market with limited dealer absorptive capacity.
• Thin Summer/Fall Liquidity: While open interest recovered to 63,656 contracts, trader count remains compressed at 216, indicating reduced overall market depth relative to early 2026. Sudden shifts in grain prices or physical cattle market liquidity may cause outsized volatility in FC.