Run Details

State

Completed

Started At

September 16, 2026 at 08:17 PM

Completed At

September 16, 2026 at 08:19 PM

Duration

3 minutes

Headline

FOMC Press Conference, September 16, 2026

Data Preview

{
  "title": "FOMC Press Conference, September 16, 2026",
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    "match_mode": "any",
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      "title",
      "description"
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  },
  "source": "youtube",
  "channel": {
    "url": "https://www.youtube.com/@federalreserve",
    "title": "Federal Reserve",
    "handle": "federalreserve",
    "channel_id": "UCAzhpt9DmG6PnHXjmJTvRGQ"
  },
  "matched": true,
  "insights": {
    "risks": [
      "Inflation risks are to the upside.",
      "Geopolitical developments contribute to elevated uncertainty.",
      "Data point dependence is a dangerous preoccupation.",
      "Losing control of powerful AI technology and doing real-world damage."
    ],
    "topics": [
      "Federal Funds Rate",
      "Monetary Policy",
      "Inflation",
      "Economic Activity",
      "Domestic Spending",
      "Productivity Growth",
      "Capital Investment",
      "Labor Markets",
      "Unemployment Rate",
      "Job Openings",
      "Weekly Hours",
      "Unemployment Claims",
      "CPI (Consumer Price Index)",
      "PPI (Producer Price Index)",
      "PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures)",
      "Commodity Prices",
      "Geopolitics",
      "Financial Conditions",
      "Economic Projections",
      "Real GDP",
      "Central Banks",
      "Artificial Intelligence"
    ],
    "summary": "The FOMC, led by Chairman Kevin Warsh, decided to raise the federal funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.75-4%. This action is taken to combat elevated inflation, which has been above the 2% target for over five years, despite solid economic activity and a strong labor market. The committee is committed to achieving price stability on a timelier basis, acknowledging that underlying inflation trends have not meaningfully improved.",
    "entities": [
      {
        "name": "FOMC",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Decided to raise federal funds rate, continuing policy of ample reserves, widely shared view on financial conditions, optimism inside, unanimous vote, decided standard for action not satisfied."
      },
      {
        "name": "Federal Reserve",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Dual mandate, congressional remit in good shape, commitment to price stability."
      },
      {
        "name": "Kevin Warsh",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "Chairman of Federal Reserve Board, speaking at the press conference."
      },
      {
        "name": "US economy",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Strengthening, resilience, solid pace of expansion, strong labor markets."
      },
      {
        "name": "Jackson Hole",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Policy symposium where Warsh previously spoke."
      },
      {
        "name": "G20 meeting",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "US hosted, advanced economies facing price pressures."
      },
      {
        "name": "Basel",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Central bank conference."
      },
      {
        "name": "President Trump",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "Called to cut interest rates."
      },
      {
        "name": "American people",
        "type": "concept",
        "context": "Least well off have most to gain from stable prices."
      },
      {
        "name": "North Carolina",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Location of G20 meeting hosted by US."
      },
      {
        "name": "10-year Treasury",
        "type": "commodity",
        "context": "Most important asset in the world, risk-free asset."
      },
      {
        "name": "Hyperscalers",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Raising funding in the market."
      }
    ],
    "sentiment": "mixed",
    "confidence": 1.0,
    "key_points": [
      {
        "point": "The FOMC decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.75-4%.",
        "timestamp": "00:09",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The committee continues its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.",
        "timestamp": "00:24",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace, and domestic spending has been resilient.",
        "timestamp": "00:29",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust.",
        "timestamp": "00:47",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.",
        "timestamp": "00:52",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Inflation remains elevated.",
        "timestamp": "01:00",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Today's policy action supports a timelier return to the committee's 2% inflation goal.",
        "timestamp": "01:03",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The committee will deliver price stability.",
        "timestamp": "01:09",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The American economy appears to be strengthening, with improvements in new hiring, private sector earnings, and business capital investment.",
        "timestamp": "01:16",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Broad financial conditions were not considered restrictive by the committee.",
        "timestamp": "01:38",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The US economy shows resilience despite geopolitical shocks and uncertainty.",
        "timestamp": "01:55",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The jobless rate remains low at around 4.1%, and job openings and weekly hours have been increasing, indicating the labor side of the Fed's mandate is in good shape.",
        "timestamp": "02:22",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "For more than five years, inflation has been running above target, making price stability the predominant focus of the Fed's mandate.",
        "timestamp": "02:44",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Summer inflation readings (CPI, PPI, PCE) do not indicate meaningful improvement in underlying trends, with many categories still showing increases above 3% on a six and 12-month basis.",
        "timestamp": "03:03",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Overall commodity prices also bear watching, as prices of many key inputs have risen over the intermeeting period.",
        "timestamp": "03:37",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The FOMC's unanimous vote demonstrates resolve to achieve price stability on a timelier basis.",
        "timestamp": "04:48",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The Fed aims to ensure credit and financial conditions are consistent with its mandate, that relative price changes do not broaden, that inflation compensation in market prices stays low, and that inflation expectations remain well anchored.",
        "timestamp": "04:55",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The FOMC decided that the standard for action (underlying inflation moving to objective clearly and at sufficient speed) has not been satisfied.",
        "timestamp": "04:42",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Median projections for real GDP growth are 2.3% this year and 2.4% next year.",
        "timestamp": "05:34",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Median projections for total PCE inflation are 3.7% this year and 2.3% next year.",
        "timestamp": "05:42",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The median projected unemployment rate holds steady at about 4.1%.",
        "timestamp": "05:49",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The median appropriate federal funds rate is projected to be 4.1% at the end of this year and remain there next year.",
        "timestamp": "05:54",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Inflation risks are to the upside, while labor risks are roughly balanced.",
        "timestamp": "06:04",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Most advanced economies are facing price pressures, and their central banks are making their own judgments.",
        "timestamp": "06:21",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The Fed's decision today reflects its best judgment in service to its dual mandate of full employment and price stability.",
        "timestamp": "06:33",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The least well off have the most to gain from a durable expansion, a solid labor market, and stable prices.",
        "timestamp": "06:49",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The Fed cannot affect individual prices (e.g., oil, food), but it can ensure that changes in relative prices do not broaden out or have second and third-order effects.",
        "timestamp": "07:44",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The decision to raise rates was a sober, serious, and responsible one, prepared for over 110-120 days.",
        "timestamp": "08:42",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The Fed's decisions are its own, not led by markets.",
        "timestamp": "09:44",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The underlying strength of the economy has indeed strengthened, and underlying growth is higher.",
        "timestamp": "12:24",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Inflation trends were not passing the test some weeks ago, and little information since has changed that assessment.",
        "timestamp": "12:54",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Geopolitics, including hotspots around the world, have changed in the last seven weeks.",
        "timestamp": "13:05",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Financial conditions were hard pressed to be described as restrictive by the committee.",
        "timestamp": "13:58",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The Fed does not think in terms of short-term or longer-term neutral rates for operational policy decisions.",
        "timestamp": "14:52",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Trends matter, data points are noisy, and data point dependence is a dangerous preoccupation.",
        "timestamp": "16:15",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The Fed's independence means it stays in its lane, and expects others (trade policy, fiscal policy) to stay in theirs.",
        "timestamp": "17:16",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The unemployment rate is basically running consistent with full employment, so the Fed can focus on price stability.",
        "timestamp": "18:30",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "When the Federal Reserve makes a policy choice, it matters not just to the US economy but spills over to the rest of the world.",
        "timestamp": "20:09",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Long-term bond yields have risen due to economic strength, competition for capital (e.g., hyperscalers raising funding), and geopolitics (hotspots around the world).",
        "timestamp": "22:57",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Price stability is foundational to economic growth.",
        "timestamp": "21:49",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The Fed does not believe it needs to push growth below potential or intentionally cause weakness in the job market to bring inflation down.",
        "timestamp": "27:58",
        "importance": "high"
      }
    ],
    "trade_ideas": [],
    "price_levels": [
      {
        "note": "Raised by a quarter of a percentage point.",
        "value": "3.75-4%",
        "instrument": "Federal Funds Rate",
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      },
      {
        "note": "Committee's goal.",
        "value": "2%",
        "instrument": "PCE inflation",
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      {
        "note": "Likely in August.",
        "value": "3.6%",
        "instrument": "Total PCE prices (12-month change)",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "Running at about.",
        "value": "3.2%",
        "instrument": "Core PCE prices",
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      {
        "note": "Running at about.",
        "value": "2.4%",
        "instrument": "Core CPI prices",
        "level_type": "other"
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        "note": "Too many categories on both 6 and 12-month basis.",
        "value": "Above 3%",
        "instrument": "Inflation increases",
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      {
        "note": "This year.",
        "value": "2.3%",
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      {
        "note": "Next year.",
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        "note": "This year.",
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        "note": "Next year.",
        "value": "2.3%",
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      {
        "note": "Holds steady.",
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      },
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        "note": "End of this year and next year.",
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        "value": "Expanding at a solid pace",
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        "value": "Strong",
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      {
        "value": "Robust",
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        "value": "Kept pace with the workforce",
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      {
        "value": "Changed little",
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        "value": "Remains elevated",
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      {
        "value": "Around 4.1%",
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        "value": "Consistent with full employment",
        "metric": "Unemployment Claims (4-week moving average)",
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        "value": "Around 3.6%",
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        "source": "CPI and PPI data"
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        "value": "About 3.2%",
        "metric": "Core PCE prices",
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      },
      {
        "value": "About 2.4%",
        "metric": "Core CPI prices",
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      {
        "value": "2.3%",
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        "period": "This year",
        "source": "Summary of Economic Projections (Median)"
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        "value": "2.4%",
        "metric": "Real GDP growth",
        "period": "Next year",
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        "value": "3.7%",
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        "source": "Summary of Economic Projections (Median)"
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        "value": "2.3%",
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        "period": "Next year",
        "source": "Summary of Economic Projections (Median)"
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        "value": "About 4.1%",
        "metric": "Unemployment rate",
        "source": "Summary of Economic Projections (Median)"
      },
      {
        "value": "4.1%",
        "metric": "Appropriate Federal Funds Rate",
        "period": "End of this year",
        "source": "Summary of Economic Projections (Median)"
      },
      {
        "value": "4.1%",
        "metric": "Appropriate Federal Funds Rate",
        "period": "Next year",
        "source": "Summary of Economic Projections (Median)"
      }
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  "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELU3u2Ny7r0",
  "transcript": "Good day. In the meeting just concluded, the FOMC decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point to three and three quarters to 4% in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. As noted in the policy statement released just a short while ago, economic activity is expanding at a solid pace. While uncertainty remains elevated, owing in part to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient. Productivity growth, strong. And capital investment is robust. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. But inflation remains elevated. Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the committee's 2% goal. This committee will deliver price stability. Now I'll get into some further detail. Our decision comes at a time when the American economy appears to be strengthening. New hiring, private sector earnings, business capital investment. Each of these markers has improved in recent months and is pointing in a good direction. Credit flows have been robust, particularly for businesses. And as I said at the policy symposium in Jackson Hole, I would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive. This view was widely shared by the committee. So we removed a dose of accommodation. Consider the geopolitical landscape of shocks and uncertainty, and you begin to appreciate the resilience of the US economy. Given that resilience and the potential for even greater performance, an attitude of optimism is exactly what I heard inside the FOMC these last two days. One basic sign of strength is the state of America's labor markets. The jobless the jobless rate remains low at around 4.1%. And both job openings and weekly hours have been increasing. Unemployment claims on a four-week moving average are running at levels consistent with full employment. So the labor side of the Fed's congressional remit is in good shape. Yet for more than five years, inflation has been running above target. So our predominant focus is on the price stability side of our mandate. The plain fact is that inflation is too high and has been for too long. This summer's inflation readings do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved. Based on the most recent CPI and PPI data, the 12-month change in total PCE prices likely was around 3.6% in August. Core PCE and CPI prices running at about 3.2 and 2.4% respectively. Too many categories are still posting increases above 3% on both a six and 12-month basis. I noted in Jackson Hole that overall commodity prices also bear watching. And over the intermeeting period, the prices of many of these key inputs have risen. Since my first FOMC meeting as chairman in June, my colleagues and I have been unequivocal in our commitment to price stability and to our 2% PCE inflation objective. At our July meeting, we all agreed that inflation remained too high, and we expressed our joint readiness to act as circumstances might require. And a good majority of my colleagues and I thought the wiser course then would be to await new information in the intermeeting period. Last month in Wyoming, I expressed my commitment to a monetary policy discipline, not to a decision. I define the standard for action. We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Today, the FOMC decided that this standard has not been satisfied. The committee's unanimous vote shows our resolve to achieve price stability on a timelier basis. We aim to ensure that credit and financial conditions are consistent over time with our mandate, that relative price changes in some sectors of the economy do not broaden, that inflation compensation in market prices stays low, and that inflation expectations remain well anchored. This afternoon, you also received the Summary of Economic Projections. It reflects the views of my colleagues on the committee, but as in June, I've not offered a projection of my own. But like in June, I said I would faithfully discharge the summary of their projections, so here goes. In the summary's median projections, real GDP rises at 2.3% this year, 2.4% next year. Total PCE inflation runs at 3.7% this year and falls to 2.3% next year. The unemployment rate holds steady at about 4.1%. The median participant judges that the appropriate federal funds rate to be 4.1% at the end of this year and to remain there next year. Inflation risks are to the upside, while labor risks are roughly balanced. In my meetings these last few weeks, in Jackson Hole, in Asheville at the G20 meeting, which the US hosted, and at a central bank conference in Basel, it was evident that most advanced economies are facing price pressures. Their central banks are making their own judgments, consistent with their own remits. Our decision today reflects our best judgment in service to our remit. The Fed has a role in sustaining the economic progress happening in America right now and the rising opportunities that come with it. Those who are least well off have the most to gain from a durable expansion, a solid labor market, and stable prices. We at the Fed are unwavering in our vital and straightforward purpose: full employment and price stability. And a thriving American economy that sets the standard for the world. And with that, I'll take a few of your questions. Yeah, it's a it's a good question, uh, Richard. We cannot affect any individual price, whether it be oil prices, whether it be food stuffs at the grocery store. But what we can do and will do is ensure that any change in relative prices don't broaden out. Don't have second and third order effects in the economy. That's what we're tasked to do and that's what we will do. So we're trying to get to more people, so I don't get to cherry pick my preferred question from you, Colby. Um, this won't surprise you. I'm not in the forward guidance business. The decision we made today was a sober decision, a serious decision, a responsible decision. One that we have been preparing for and thinking about in my 110 or 20 days here. Uh, you heard from other people in the dots effectively what their forecasts are. Uh, I'm not going to prejudge any future decisions we make. You might have heard me say in Jackson Hole, I committed to a discipline, a set of principles. I committed to look outside the window and see what I can observe. Uh, that's what I did in Jackson, that's what we did today. So, um, I've said this before, I'll repeat it. Uh, the Fed has an enormous amount of power. These are decisions we make. But getting the understanding right between financial markets and the Fed is a balance that I've long thought could be better struck. We made this decision today based on our assessment of the situation, based on our assessment of, uh, the trajectory for employment, based on our judgment on the strength of the economy. Uh, sometimes the market, uh, uh, tries to prejudge our outcomes. I'll observe market prices and, uh, and, uh, see what they have to say, but today was our decision. Um, I've got nothing for you on, uh, on a discussion with the President. So, but I won't make that count as your question. Um, on the American people, as I said in my prepared remarks, the least well off are the ones who have the most to gain from stable prices. The decision we made today was the right decision to deliver on the remit that Congress gave us to ensure stable prices. Moreover, I would say because of the underlying strength of the economy, because we are, as I mentioned, uh, largely acting consistent with full employment, we can be focused on stable prices. Some months ago, I said we will deliver stable prices. Today's action is consistent with that. Yeah, so as you might know, I'm not a data point dependent guy. Um, so I won't, I won't react one way or another to data that, that shows up on, on our doorstep. But on your first question, I think the more important one, what transpired in the seven weeks since we last met? First, I would say a good majority of my colleagues seven weeks ago thought seven weeks is a good investment. It's a way to buy time so we can make a wise decision. I'll highlight three things that have happened in that intermeeting period. One is, um, I made a had a judgment seven weeks ago about the strength of the economy. There's been a pretty wide-ranging set of data including the labor markets that the economy has strengthened. You might have heard me say that in Jackson Hole a few weeks ago. It's a judgment that I have and the committee has. Uh, second, inflation trends. Uh, I said in Jackson Hole, trends matter. I said in Jackson Hole, we need to look outside the window and interrogate reality. Um, my judgment some weeks ago was the inflation summer trends weren't passing the test. I've seen very little information since that would make me reverse that decision, so I've stuck with it. And the third thing that's changed in seven weeks are geopolitics. I mean, there's no hiding from hotspots around the world. And, uh, our judgment about what is the most likely or least likely of the geopolitical situation has changed. All three of those things led, lend themselves to a, a firm unanimous decision today. Uh, I've described previously, I found it difficult to describe financial conditions as restrictive. I think I said I was hard pressed. What I heard around the table in the last couple of days is my colleagues were hard pressed to describe it that way too. Um, we removed a dose of accommodation so that financial and credit conditions would be more consistent with our ultimate objectives. That was the decision, that was our judgment, and, uh, we'll continue to evaluate that prospectively. Uh, in a word, no. Um, in a few words, I'd say this. Um, I've always been interested in a neutral rate as an academic matter. Back when I learned economics, we used to think of it as a Wicksellian rate. It's the real equilibrium rate. Um, it's useful academically. It's a, it's a discussion to help us think about policy. Do I think it has any operational effect on decisions that we make today? No, I don't. Um, so market participants and reporters, I think generally over the course of the last decade or so, have grown accustomed to waiting somewhat breathlessly on a data point. Um, that isn't my view. Uh, I was not waiting breathlessly on what any particular data was, whether it was retail sales this morning or a CPI print last week. Um, I'll just reiterate, trends matter. Data points are noisy. Data point, uh, dependence is a dangerous preoccupation. It's not something, uh, that concerns me. Markets over time will come to understand how this Fed makes its decisions, what's relevant and not, and I wouldn't want to editorialize that for them beyond it. You, you gave me a long menu from which to choose. They're all very tempting. Um, I don't have anything for you on, on discussions with the President. Um, and I'm not a Wall Street newsletter. Um, part of the independence of the Federal Reserve is we stay in our lane. Independence is a two-way street. We'll let people that do trade policy and fiscal policy stay in their lane too. That's how we can stand up here and call them the way we see them. Yeah. Um, it's a fair question. In the macroeconomics, we tend to look at aggregates around here. Aggregate GDP, overall labor market trends, the state of inflation. A lot of people in Washington spend a lot of time on distributional consequences and that's their job and their business. What I was referring to in the least well off tend to be people that don't own financial assets. Call that a bit less than 50% of the country. They don't have equity in their home, they don't have equity in a 401k plan. So they're living off their, uh, paycheck that comes every couple of weeks. The thing that we can do consistent with our mandate is two things. Ask ourselves, is the country running more or less at full employment? And we've done that. Um, that doesn't mean that individuals aren't searching for a job, but in aggregate, we're running more or less at full employment. If so, we can then look at the other side of our mandate and let that be our focus. And stable prices, an environment where inflation is running consistent with our 2% objective, offers good news because that way when they get their wages, they can put their head above water and deliver real take home pay increases. We don't have total responsibility for it, but we do have responsibility for stable prices. As I've said before, inflation is in a choice, and today we took a step in delivering it. Um, well, uh, I don't ask them to prejudge decisions that we're going to make, so I won't prejudge decisions that they make. But I will say this, I've spent some time with, uh, foreign central bank counterparts, not just in the last 20 years, but over the course of the last several weeks, as I mentioned in Jackson Hole, uh, at the G20 meeting we hosted in North Carolina, and, uh, at a central bank meeting in Basel. What I heard around the table from most of the advanced economies is they're suffering from price pressures too. They're making their own choices consistent with their remit. It tells me a couple things. One is, when the Federal Reserve makes a policy choice, uh, it matters not just to the US economy, but it spills over to the rest of the world. To a lesser extent, that's true for them too. When foreign central banks make decisions where they're confronted with higher prices and they choose, consistent with their remit, to, uh, raise rates, then they're helping to quash inflation in their countries and there's spill-overs and spill-backs in both directions. Beyond that, I won't opine on what other central banks may choose to do this week or beyond. So I don't, I don't remember the full context, but I can tell you, uh, Nick, about the state of growth now. My suspicion, 110 or 20 days ago when I showed up, was that the US economy was strengthening. Even over the last several weeks, I think we now have data broadly defined that says the economy has indeed strengthened. Um, underlying growth is higher. Uh, inflation is the problem. Stable prices have been the problem for now more than five and a half years. So what the committee decided to do today was take an action to ensure a timelier return to our price stability objective. Price stability is foundational to economic growth and I think we took an important step today to deliver it. And we did it in part by removing, uh, the dose of accommodation that I, that I mentioned before. Um, let me speak to the history. What bond market prices do prospectively, I want to let them do their, I want to let them, uh, tell me any story they wish to. I want to try to interrogate that. But why did yields rise, let's say since the last FOMC meeting till this? I'll give you three, three reasons, but I would say these things tend to be overdetermined. This is a complicated set of things that are affecting the most important asset anywhere in the world, the 10-year Treasury. It's the risk-free asset upon which every price of virtually every asset in the world, um, is related to. So I'll say three things. First is economic strength. I mean, part of the reason why we've seen over the course of 2026 long-term yields go up is the economy is strengthened. Second reason, competition for capital. Um, the surge in capital expenditures, which I referenced in my remarks, is real. And the so-called hyperscalers are out in the market raising funding, and so the competition for capital is real, and I think it partly explains the increase in yields. The third is geopolitics. Um, the situation in hotspots around the world are driving long-term yields. Um, it's not simply spot prices of energy or spot prices for corn or soybeans or wheat, but it's the difference between those spot prices and so-called crack spreads. What that means for products that find their way into, uh, stores, uh, across the country. So I think those are the three leading explanations, but certainly not an exclusive list. Um, one easy way to square that, Mike, is those aren't my forecasts. Um, those are the forecasts of my 18 colleagues, and I tried to represent them dutifully to you. Um, my business is to not give forward guidance, but my commitment in June was to reaffirm to the American people, to anyone listening that we will deliver price stability. My commitment in July was to say we want to buy a little bit of time. We want to evaluate what's happening across a range of dimensions. And what I said in Jackson Hole in August is we're committed to a discipline, not to a decision. Today's action, uh, starts to show we're serious about this, and we will deliver on the price stability objective. And as the statement said, we'll do it on a, on a timelier basis. That's our decision, and, uh, uh, when we continue our discussions over the course of the next several weeks and months, we'll have more to say about it, but I'm ill-prepared to prejudge those future actions. So I've spent a lot of time, uh, thinking about AI, and before I found my way to this post, I spent a lot of time talking about it publicly. Um, independence of the Federal Reserve is about staying in our lane. We care very much about what's happening in artificial intelligence. We care much about the implications on the demand side of the economy and ultimately on the supply side of the economy. I care so much, I think it's so important that we establish a task force that should report by the end of the year to help us think about the implications for a future policy conjuncture. But the policy decisions that are made about the risks and rewards, the challenges and opportunities, those are decisions made by other parts of the government. I'm going to leave it to them to make those, those political decisions, those policy decisions. The implications of those decisions obviously have some bearing on our day job, and that's where we'll be focused.",
  "description": "Transcript (PDF): https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20260916.pdf\n\nMeeting materials: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20260916.htm\n\nThe Federal Reserve System is the central bank of the United States. It performs five general functions to promote the effective operation of the U.S. economy and, more generally, the public interest. \n\nThe Federal Reserve conducts the nation’s monetary policy to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates in the U.S. economy; promotes the stability of the financial system and seeks to minimize and contain systemic risks through active monitoring and engagement in the U.S. and abroad; promotes the safety and soundness of individual financial institutions and monitors their impact on the financial system as a whole; fosters payment and settlement system safety and efficiency through services to the banking industry and the U.S. government that facilitate U.S.-dollar transactions and payments; and promotes consumer protection and community development through consumer-focused supervision and examination, research and analysis of emerging consumer issues and trends, community economic development activities, and the administration of consumer laws and regulations.\n\nVisit the Federal Reserve’s website at www.federalreserve.gov for more information.",
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