Run Details

State

Completed

Started At

September 16, 2026 at 08:17 PM

Completed At

September 16, 2026 at 08:17 PM

Duration

1 minute

Headline

FOMC Introductory Statement, September 16, 2026

Data Preview

{
  "title": "FOMC Introductory Statement, September 16, 2026",
  "filter": {
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      "title",
      "description"
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  },
  "source": "youtube",
  "channel": {
    "url": "https://www.youtube.com/@federalreserve",
    "title": "Federal Reserve",
    "handle": "federalreserve",
    "channel_id": "UCAzhpt9DmG6PnHXjmJTvRGQ"
  },
  "matched": true,
  "insights": {
    "risks": [
      "Uncertainty remains elevated, owing in part to geopolitical developments.",
      "Inflation risks are to the upside.",
      "Labor risks are roughly balanced."
    ],
    "topics": [
      "Monetary policy",
      "Interest rates",
      "Inflation",
      "Labor market",
      "Economic growth",
      "GDP",
      "PCE",
      "CPI",
      "Unemployment",
      "Capital investment",
      "Credit flows",
      "Geopolitical developments",
      "Commodity prices"
    ],
    "summary": "The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.75% to 4%. This action aims to support the Federal Reserve's dual mandate and achieve a timely return to its 2% inflation goal, as inflation remains elevated despite solid economic activity, resilient domestic spending, strong productivity, and a robust labor market. The committee emphasizes its commitment to price stability, noting that underlying inflation trends have not meaningfully improved.",
    "entities": [
      {
        "name": "FOMC",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "The FOMC decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate."
      },
      {
        "name": "Federal Reserve",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate."
      },
      {
        "name": "Kevin Warsh",
        "type": "person",
        "context": "Chairman, Federal Reserve Board of Governors"
      },
      {
        "name": "US economy",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "the American economy appears to be strengthening."
      },
      {
        "name": "Jackson Hole",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "as I said at the policy symposium in Jackson Hole."
      },
      {
        "name": "Wyoming",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "Last month in Wyoming, I expressed my commitment to a monetary policy discipline."
      },
      {
        "name": "G20",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "in Asheville at the G20 meeting, which the US hosted."
      },
      {
        "name": "Basel",
        "type": "region",
        "context": "and at a central bank conference in Basel."
      },
      {
        "name": "Central banks",
        "type": "organization",
        "context": "Their central banks are making their own judgments."
      }
    ],
    "sentiment": "mixed",
    "confidence": 1.0,
    "key_points": [
      {
        "point": "The FOMC decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.75% to 4%.",
        "timestamp": "00:01",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "This policy action supports the Federal Reserve's dual mandate and aims for a timelier return to the committee's 2% inflation goal.",
        "timestamp": "00:12",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace, and domestic spending has been resilient.",
        "timestamp": "00:26",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust.",
        "timestamp": "00:38",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.",
        "timestamp": "00:44",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Inflation remains elevated.",
        "timestamp": "00:52",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The American economy appears to be strengthening, with new hiring, private sector earnings, and business capital investment improving in recent months.",
        "timestamp": "01:10",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Credit flows have been robust, particularly for businesses.",
        "timestamp": "01:24",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The jobless rate remains low at around 4.1%, and job openings and weekly hours have been increasing.",
        "timestamp": "02:13",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Unemployment claims on a four-week moving average are consistent with full employment, indicating the labor side of the Fed's mandate is in good shape.",
        "timestamp": "02:23",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "For more than five years, inflation has been running above target, making price stability the predominant focus of the Fed's mandate.",
        "timestamp": "02:36",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Summer's inflation readings do not indicate that underlying trends have meaningfully improved.",
        "timestamp": "02:54",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The 12-month change in total PCE prices was likely around 3.6% in August, with core PCE and CPI prices running at about 3.2% and 2.4% respectively.",
        "timestamp": "03:04",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "Too many categories are still posting increases above 3% on both a 6-month and 12-month basis.",
        "timestamp": "03:19",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Overall commodity prices also bear watching, and the prices of many key inputs have risen.",
        "timestamp": "03:30",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The FOMC is unequivocally committed to price stability and its 2% PCE inflation objective.",
        "timestamp": "03:44",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The standard for action requires confidence that underlying inflation is moving to the objective clearly and at sufficient speed, a standard the FOMC decided has not been satisfied.",
        "timestamp": "04:23",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The committee's unanimous vote shows its resolve to achieve price stability on a timelier basis.",
        "timestamp": "04:40",
        "importance": "high"
      },
      {
        "point": "The Fed aims to ensure credit and financial conditions are consistent with its mandate, that relative price changes in some sectors do not broaden, that inflation compensation in market prices stays low, and that inflation expectations remain well anchored.",
        "timestamp": "04:46",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Median projections for real GDP are 2.3% this year and 2.4% next year.",
        "timestamp": "05:27",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Median projections for total PCE inflation are 3.7% this year and 2.3% next year.",
        "timestamp": "05:34",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The median projected unemployment rate holds steady at about 4.1% for this year and next year.",
        "timestamp": "05:41",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The median participant judges the appropriate federal funds rate to be 4.1% at the end of this year and to remain there next year.",
        "timestamp": "05:47",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "Most advanced economies are facing price pressures, and their central banks are making their own judgments consistent with their remits.",
        "timestamp": "06:14",
        "importance": "medium"
      },
      {
        "point": "The Fed's vital purpose is full employment and price stability, leading to a thriving American economy.",
        "timestamp": "06:54",
        "importance": "high"
      }
    ],
    "trade_ideas": [],
    "price_levels": [
      {
        "note": "Raised by a quarter of a percentage point",
        "value": "3.75% to 4%",
        "instrument": "Federal Funds Rate",
        "level_type": "target"
      },
      {
        "note": "Current and projected",
        "value": "4.1%",
        "instrument": "Unemployment Rate",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "August reading",
        "value": "3.6%",
        "instrument": "Total PCE Prices (12-month change)",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "Current reading",
        "value": "3.2%",
        "instrument": "Core PCE Prices",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "Current reading",
        "value": "2.4%",
        "instrument": "CPI Prices",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "On both 6-month and 12-month basis for many categories",
        "value": "above 3%",
        "instrument": "Inflation increases",
        "level_type": "other"
      },
      {
        "note": "This year",
        "value": "2.3%",
        "instrument": "Real GDP (median projection)",
        "level_type": "target"
      },
      {
        "note": "Next year",
        "value": "2.4%",
        "instrument": "Real GDP (median projection)",
        "level_type": "target"
      },
      {
        "note": "This year",
        "value": "3.7%",
        "instrument": "Total PCE Inflation (median projection)",
        "level_type": "target"
      },
      {
        "note": "Next year",
        "value": "2.3%",
        "instrument": "Total PCE Inflation (median projection)",
        "level_type": "target"
      },
      {
        "note": "End of this year and next year",
        "value": "4.1%",
        "instrument": "Federal Funds Rate (median participant judgment)",
        "level_type": "target"
      }
    ],
    "time_horizon": "medium_term",
    "matches_filter": true,
    "data_references": [
      {
        "value": "3.75% to 4%",
        "metric": "Federal Funds Rate Target Range",
        "source": "FOMC"
      },
      {
        "value": "expanding at a solid pace",
        "metric": "Economic Activity",
        "source": "Policy Statement"
      },
      {
        "value": "resilient",
        "metric": "Domestic Spending",
        "source": "Policy Statement"
      },
      {
        "value": "strong",
        "metric": "Productivity Growth",
        "source": "Policy Statement"
      },
      {
        "value": "robust",
        "metric": "Capital Investment",
        "source": "Policy Statement"
      },
      {
        "value": "kept pace with the workforce",
        "metric": "Job Gains",
        "source": "Policy Statement"
      },
      {
        "value": "changed little",
        "metric": "Unemployment Rate",
        "source": "Policy Statement"
      },
      {
        "value": "remains elevated",
        "metric": "Inflation",
        "source": "Policy Statement"
      },
      {
        "value": "improved in recent months",
        "metric": "New Hiring",
        "source": "American Economy"
      },
      {
        "value": "improved in recent months",
        "metric": "Private Sector Earnings",
        "source": "American Economy"
      },
      {
        "value": "improved in recent months",
        "metric": "Business Capital Investment",
        "source": "American Economy"
      },
      {
        "value": "robust, particularly for businesses",
        "metric": "Credit Flows",
        "source": "American Economy"
      },
      {
        "value": "around 4.1%",
        "metric": "Jobless Rate",
        "source": "Labor Markets"
      },
      {
        "value": "increasing",
        "metric": "Job Openings",
        "source": "Labor Markets"
      },
      {
        "value": "increasing",
        "metric": "Weekly Hours",
        "source": "Labor Markets"
      },
      {
        "value": "consistent with full employment",
        "metric": "Unemployment Claims (4-week moving average)",
        "source": "Labor Markets"
      },
      {
        "value": "around 3.6%",
        "metric": "12-month change in total PCE prices",
        "period": "August",
        "source": "CPI and PPI data"
      },
      {
        "value": "around 3.2%",
        "metric": "Core PCE prices",
        "source": "CPI and PPI data"
      },
      {
        "value": "around 2.4%",
        "metric": "CPI prices",
        "source": "CPI and PPI data"
      },
      {
        "value": "above 3% on both a 6-month and 12-month basis",
        "metric": "Categories posting increases",
        "source": "Inflation Readings"
      },
      {
        "value": "2.3%",
        "metric": "Real GDP (median projection)",
        "period": "this year",
        "source": "Summary of Economic Projections"
      },
      {
        "value": "2.4%",
        "metric": "Real GDP (median projection)",
        "period": "next year",
        "source": "Summary of Economic Projections"
      },
      {
        "value": "3.7%",
        "metric": "Total PCE Inflation (median projection)",
        "period": "this year",
        "source": "Summary of Economic Projections"
      },
      {
        "value": "2.3%",
        "metric": "Total PCE Inflation (median projection)",
        "period": "next year",
        "source": "Summary of Economic Projections"
      },
      {
        "value": "4.1%",
        "metric": "Unemployment Rate (median projection)",
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        "source": "Summary of Economic Projections"
      },
      {
        "value": "4.1%",
        "metric": "Unemployment Rate (median projection)",
        "period": "next year",
        "source": "Summary of Economic Projections"
      },
      {
        "value": "4.1%",
        "metric": "Federal Funds Rate (median participant judgment)",
        "period": "end of this year",
        "source": "Summary of Economic Projections"
      },
      {
        "value": "4.1%",
        "metric": "Federal Funds Rate (median participant judgment)",
        "period": "next year",
        "source": "Summary of Economic Projections"
      }
    ],
    "match_reasoning": "The video is a direct statement from the Federal Reserve Chairman about an FOMC meeting, discussing economic conditions, interest rate decisions, and inflation, which are core topics for a commodities and futures research analyst."
  },
  "video_id": "hgpxmJrsPBY",
  "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgpxmJrsPBY",
  "transcript": "In the meeting just concluded, the FOMC decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point to three and three quarters to four percent in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. As noted in the policy statement released just a short while ago, economic activity is expanding at a solid pace. While uncertainty remains elevated, owing in part to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient. Productivity growth, strong, and capital investment is robust. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. But inflation remains elevated. Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the committee's two percent goal. This committee will deliver price stability. Now getting to some further detail. Our decision comes at a time when the American economy appears to be strengthening. New hiring, private sector earnings, business capital investment. Each of these markers has improved in recent months and is pointing in a good direction. Credit flows have been robust, particularly for businesses. And as I said at the policy symposium in Jackson Hole, I would be hard-pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive. This view was widely shared by the committee. So we removed a dose of accommodation. Consider the geopolitical landscape of shocks and uncertainty, and you begin to appreciate the resilience of the US economy. Given that resilience and the potential for even greater performance, an attitude of optimism is exactly what I heard inside the FOMC these last two days. One basic sign of strength is the state of America's labor markets. The jobless the jobless rate remains low at around 4.1%. And both job openings and weekly hours have been increasing. Unemployment claims on a four-week moving average are running at levels consistent with full employment. So the labor side of the Fed's congressional remit is in good shape. Yet for more than five years, inflation has been running above target. So our predominant focus is on the price stability side of our mandate. The plain fact is that inflation is too high and has been for too long. This summer's inflation readings do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved. Based on the most recent CPI and PPI data, the 12-month change in total PCE prices likely was around 3.6% in August. Core PCE and CPI prices running at about 3.2 and 2.4% respectively. Too many categories are still posting increases above 3% on both a 6th and 12-month basis. I noted in Jackson Hole that overall commodity prices also bear watching. And over the intermeeting period, the prices of many of these key inputs have risen. Since my first FOMC meeting as Chairman in June, my colleagues and I have been unequivocal in our commitment to price stability and to our 2% PCE inflation objective. At our July meeting, we all agreed that inflation remained too high, and we expressed our joint readiness to act as circumstances might require. And a good majority of my colleagues and I thought the wiser course then would be to await new information in the intermeeting period. Last month in Wyoming, I expressed my commitment to a monetary policy discipline, not to a decision. I define the standard for action. We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Today, the FOMC decided that this standard has not been satisfied. The committee's unanimous vote shows our resolve to achieve price stability on a timelier basis. We aim to ensure that credit and financial conditions are consistent over time with our mandate. That relative price changes in some sectors of the economy do not broaden. That inflation compensation in market prices stays low. And that inflation expectations remain well anchored. This afternoon, you also received the summary of economic projections. It reflects the views of my colleagues on the committee, but as in June, I've not offered a projection of my own. But like in June, I said I would faithfully discharge the summary of their projections, so here goes. In the summary's median projections, real GDP rises at 2.3% this year, 2.4% next year. Total PCE inflation runs at 3.7% this year and falls to 2.3% next year. The unemployment rate holds steady at about 4.1%. The median participant judges that the appropriate federal funds rate to be 4.1% at the end of this year and to remain there next year. Inflation risks are to the upside, while labor risks are roughly balanced. In my meetings these last few weeks, in Jackson Hole, in Asheville at the G20 meeting, which the US hosted, and at a central bank conference in Basel, it was evident that most advanced economies are facing price pressures. Their central banks are making their own judgments, consistent with their own remits. Our decision today reflects our best judgment in service to our remit. The Fed has a role in sustaining the economic progress happening in America right now, and the rising opportunities that come with it. Those who are least well off have the most to gain from a durable expansion, a solid labor market, and stable prices. We at the Fed are unwavering in our vital and straightforward purpose: full employment and price stability, and a thriving American economy that sets the standard for all.",
  "description": "Transcript (PDF): https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20260916.pdf\n\nMeeting materials: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20260916.htm\n\nThe Federal Reserve System is the central bank of the United States. It performs five general functions to promote the effective operation of the U.S. economy and, more generally, the public interest. \n\nThe Federal Reserve conducts the nation’s monetary policy to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates in the U.S. economy; promotes the stability of the financial system and seeks to minimize and contain systemic risks through active monitoring and engagement in the U.S. and abroad; promotes the safety and soundness of individual financial institutions and monitors their impact on the financial system as a whole; fosters payment and settlement system safety and efficiency through services to the banking industry and the U.S. government that facilitate U.S.-dollar transactions and payments; and promotes consumer protection and community development through consumer-focused supervision and examination, research and analysis of emerging consumer issues and trends, community economic development activities, and the administration of consumer laws and regulations.\n\nVisit the Federal Reserve’s website at www.federalreserve.gov for more information.",
  "match_reason": "No keyword filter configured",
  "published_at": "2026-09-16T19:46:11Z",
  "thumbnail_url": "https://i.ytimg.com/vi/hgpxmJrsPBY/hqdefault.jpg",
  "reporting_date": "2026-09-16",
  "analysis_source": "gemini-2.5-flash",
  "duration_seconds": null,
  "matched_keywords": [],
  "transcript_available": true
}