Silver Futures COT Brief: Week Ending June 26, 2026

Executive summary

This week's report shows a clear divergence in activity between speculators and commercial participants as silver prices declined. Managed Money pared back their bullish bets, liquidating long positions in response to falling prices. In contrast, Commercial producers and merchants aggressively reduced their net short exposure, buying into the weakness to reach one of their least-short stances in over six months. Swap Dealers remain the largest net short holders, accommodating flows from other categories. Overall open interest is subdued compared to earlier in the year, but saw a slight increase this week, indicating some new capital is entering the market even as other positions are closed.

Positioning

• Managed Money (Speculators): Net long position fell to +11,741 contracts, down from +12,885 the prior week. This is a significant retreat from the recent peak of +15,761 contracts in mid-May and the +21,887 contract peak in late December 2025.
• Producer/Merchant (Commercials): Net short position contracted sharply to -13,722 contracts, down from -16,612 the prior week. This is one of the smallest net short positions for this category in the provided historical data, which saw levels deeper than -25,000 contracts in late 2025 and early 2026.
• Swap Dealers: Remain the largest net short holders at -26,518 contracts. This position is largely unchanged from the prior week's -25,706 contracts and represents the primary counterparty to long speculators.

Flows and week-over-week changes

• Managed Money: Drove the speculative selling, reducing their net long position by 1,144 contracts. This was almost entirely due to long liquidation (-1,180 contracts), with shorts remaining static (-36 contracts). This suggests a capitulation or stop-loss-driven exit from bullish bets.
• Producer/Merchant: Were the most active buyers, increasing their net position by 2,890 contracts. The move was driven by a combination of adding new longs (+965 contracts) and, more significantly, covering existing shorts (-1,925 contracts).
• Swap Dealers: Shed both long (-1,896 contracts) and short (-1,084 contracts) positions, resulting in a slightly less net-short stance.
• Non-reportable (Retail): Also reduced their net long exposure, selling 1,142 long contracts while adding 143 short contracts.

Commercials vs speculators

The classic market structure of speculators (Managed Money) being net long against Commercials (Producers) being net short remains firmly in place. However, the magnitude of these positions is telling. Commercials have shown a clear pattern of reducing their hedges as prices have fallen over recent months. Their current -13,722 contract net short position suggests a significantly reduced appetite for hedging at these price levels, which can be interpreted as seeing less downside risk or finding current prices less attractive for locking in future sales. Meanwhile, Managed Money's conviction has waned, with their net long position now 46% below its late-December peak.

Open interest and participation

• Total Open Interest: Increased modestly by 1,223 contracts to a total of 108,944 contracts.
• Context: Current open interest levels are significantly lower than the 150,000+ contract levels seen in January 2026. This indicates a substantial amount of capital has left the Silver market since the year began, potentially making the market more susceptible to volatility from new flows.
• Concentration: The market shows a high degree of concentration on the short side. The largest 4 traders hold a net short position equivalent to 29.2% of open interest, and the largest 8 traders hold 41.3%. This indicates that the actions of a few large entities, likely within the Swap Dealer and Producer categories, have an outsized influence on the market.

Price context

The provided price series shows that the front-month Silver contract fell during the reporting period (Tuesday, June 23 to Friday, June 26). The closing price declined from 61.95 on June 23 to 59.19 on June 26. The positioning changes are consistent with this price action: - The 1,180 contract long liquidation by Managed Money likely contributed to or was a reaction to the price drop. - The significant short-covering (-1,925 contracts) by Commercials occurred into this price weakness, which is classic hedging behavior as they take advantage of lower prices to reduce their short exposure.

Risks and watchpoints

• Commercial Buying: The most significant watchpoint is the shrinking Producer/Merchant net short position. Their continued buying and short-covering at these levels could provide a supportive floor for the market. A reversal of this trend, where they begin to add shorts aggressively, would be a bearish signal.
• Speculative Overhang: While reduced, the Managed Money net long of +11,741 contracts is still substantial. Further price weakness could trigger another wave of long liquidation, creating downside pressure.
• Low Open Interest: The relatively low overall market participation could amplify the impact of any new, decisive fund flows. A sudden increase in open interest alongside a strong price move would signal renewed conviction.
• Swap Dealer Role: As the largest net short, the Swap Dealer book is a key focus. Any rapid covering from this category could signal a major shift in market dynamics and potentially fuel a sharp rally.