Silver Futures (SI) COT Brief: Week Ending July 10, 2026

Executive summary

In a week of contracting open interest, institutional participants increased their bearish stance on Silver. Managed Money trimmed their net long position for the first time in several weeks, driven by a combination of light long liquidation and fresh short selling. Concurrently, Commercials (Producers and Swap Dealers) added significantly to their net short hedge positions. This collective bearish shift from larger players occurred during a period of price consolidation and preceded a modest price dip later in the week. Overall market participation remains extremely low compared to levels seen earlier in the year, suggesting a lack of strong conviction and potentially increasing the risk of volatility.

Positioning

• Managed Money: The speculative fund category holds a net long position of +13,201 contracts. This is a reduction from recent weeks but remains a notable bullish stance. It is, however, significantly below the net long positions exceeding +21,000 contracts seen in late 2025.
• Producers/Merchants: Commercial hedgers are net short -13,356 contracts. This is a relatively light hedge book compared to historical levels, such as the -25,373 net short position held in late December 2025.
• Swap Dealers: This category remains the largest net short in the market, with a position of -29,739 contracts. Their positioning has been consistently and deeply short throughout the provided historical data.
• Non-Reportable Positions: Smaller retail traders hold a significant net long of +15,080 contracts, making them the most bullish category by net position.

Flows and week-over-week changes

• Managed Money: Turned more cautious, net selling 581 contracts. This was composed of a minor reduction in longs (-55 contracts) and an addition of new shorts (+526 contracts).
• Producers/Merchants: Increased their hedges, net selling 1,085 contracts. This was almost entirely driven by adding 1,046 new short positions.
• Swap Dealers: Also increased their net short position, selling a net 685 contracts by cutting longs (-453) and adding shorts (+232).
• Non-Reportable Positions: Provided the buying power this week, increasing their net long position by 1,123 contracts. This was a result of aggressive short covering (-4,862 contracts) that far outpaced long liquidation (-3,739 contracts).

Commercials vs speculators

• The classic dynamic of bearish Commercials versus bullish Speculators is firmly in place. The combined Commercial net short position (Producers + Swaps) stands at -43,095 contracts.
• This week, the divergence in activity was clear: Commercials added a net 1,770 contracts to their short positions, while the key speculative group, Managed Money, shed 581 contracts from their net long.
• This indicates that during the reporting week, informed hedgers and large speculators were sellers, while the buying was absorbed primarily by the smaller, non-reportable (retail) participants.

Open interest and participation

• Total open interest fell by 4,105 contracts to a new total of 104,859.
• This level of participation is extremely low compared to the 150,000+ contracts of open interest seen during the first quarter of 2026. The market has undergone a significant liquidation event since January.
• The decline in open interest during a week where both commercials and speculators were actively selling suggests that much of the activity was existing longs selling to new shorts, rather than a large influx of new capital.

Price context

• The price data provided shows Silver consolidating in a range for most of the reporting period (the week ending Tuesday, July 7th), with the price closing at $60.205 on that day.
• This consolidation followed a precipitous drop from highs near $120 in late January.
• The bearish positioning shifts noted in this report (Managed Money selling, Commercials adding to hedges) occurred during this consolidation and preceded a price dip to $58.45 on Wednesday, July 8th, the day after the COT data was collected.

Risks and watchpoints

• Low Liquidity Environment: The historically low open interest could exacerbate price swings. A lack of broad participation means that any new catalyst or flow could have an outsized impact on price.
• Speculative Longs Still at Risk: While Managed Money has reduced its net long, the +13,201 contract position remains a source of potential selling pressure. A decisive break below the recent lows could trigger further long liquidation from this cohort.
• Concentration: The short side of the market remains highly concentrated, with the largest 4 traders holding 32.2% of the net short position. While typical for producer-dominated markets, this always carries a background risk of a short squeeze if a powerful bullish narrative emerges, though current momentum does not suggest this is imminent.
• Watch Commercial Hedging: Producer short positions are light historically. A significant increase in their hedging activity could signal that they view current prices as attractive for locking in future sales, potentially capping rallies.