Silver Futures (COMEX) - COT Report for the week of June 22, 2026

Executive summary

This week's report reveals a significant sentiment shift among speculators, with Managed Money aggressively adding to their net long position. This buying was primarily absorbed by Swap Dealers, who increased their net short exposure to its largest level in the provided dataset. Despite this influx of speculative buying, overall market participation remains well below the highs seen earlier in the year. The concentration on the short side is notable, suggesting that a small number of large entities are providing the liquidity for the speculative longs. The absence of price data for the reporting period prevents a direct correlation with market performance, but the positioning change itself points to a renewal of bullish conviction among hedge funds.

Positioning

• Managed Money (Speculators): Net position stands at +12,885 contracts (18,739 long vs. 5,854 short). This is a notable increase from +10,403 contracts last week and marks the most bullish positioning from this category in over a month. However, it remains significantly below the peak net long of +21,887 contracts seen in late 2025.
• Producer/Merchant (Commercials): Net position is -16,612 contracts (3,662 long vs. 20,274 short). This is a very slight reduction in their net short stance from -16,659 last week and remains within the typical range for producer hedging.
• Swap Dealers: Net position has deepened to -25,706 contracts (20,241 long vs. 45,947 short), an increase in their net short exposure from -23,709 contracts in the prior week. This is the largest net short position for Swap Dealers in the provided historical data, indicating they are the primary counterparty to the renewed speculative length.

Flows and week-over-week changes

The reporting week was characterized by a clear divergence in activity between speculators and dealers. - Managed Money were the most active buyers, adding a net +2,482 contracts to their position. This was driven almost entirely by new long positions being established (+2,403 long contracts) while the short side saw a negligible trim (-79 contracts). - Swap Dealers took the other side of this flow, increasing their net short position by -1,997 contracts. This was accomplished by adding substantially more shorts (+2,443 contracts) than longs (+446 contracts). - Producer/Merchant activity was muted, with a minor net reduction of their short hedge by +47 contracts. - Non-reportable (often considered retail) participants were small net sellers, reducing their net long by -380 contracts.

Commercials vs speculators

The classic dynamic of speculators versus commercials is clearly at play. - Speculative Cohorts: Managed Money and Non-reportable traders together hold a combined net long position of +30,659 contracts. The week's buying was led by Managed Money, signaling institutional speculative interest is returning. - Commercial & Dealer Cohorts: Producers and Swap Dealers maintain a large combined net short position of -42,318 contracts. The willingness of Swap Dealers to aggressively increase their short exposure against the Managed Money buying suggests they are either facilitating client orders or see current levels as an opportunity to sell.

Open interest and participation

• Open Interest: Total open interest increased by +4,281 contracts to 107,721. An increase in open interest alongside a rise in the net speculative long position is a bullish signal, as it indicates that new money is entering the market to establish long positions, rather than just short-covering.
• Trader Participation: The total number of reporting traders is 143, which is near the lowest level in the provided data set (which peaked above 200). This suggests that while conviction among current participants may be rising, the overall market is less crowded than it was earlier in the year.
• Concentration: The short side of the market remains highly concentrated. The largest four traders by net position hold 29.5% of all short contracts, compared to just 13.4% on the long side. This highlights that a few large entities (likely commercials and dealers) are the dominant sellers.

Price context

Price data for the current reporting week (ending June 22) is not available in the provided series, which ends on June 10, 2026. Therefore, a direct correlation between this week's positioning changes and price action cannot be made.

From a broader perspective, the last available price data in early June showed a significant decline from peaks above 118.00 in late January. The recent build in speculative long positions comes after a multi-month period of price decline and position reduction, which could suggest that funds see the market as having found a bottom.

Risks and watchpoints

• Renewed Speculative Buying: The aggressive addition of longs by Managed Money is the key development. If this trend continues, it could provide a strong tailwind for prices.
• Heavy Dealer Shorts: Swap Dealers are holding a historically large net short position. While they can maintain this, it also represents significant fuel for a short-covering rally if a bullish catalyst emerges and they are forced to buy back their positions.
• Low Liquidity Environment: With open interest and trader counts well off their highs, the market may be susceptible to higher volatility and outsized moves on any significant news or flow.
• Short Concentration: The high concentration on the short side is a key risk factor. A "short squeeze" scenario, while not imminent, is a possibility if prices begin to rally convincingly and force the large shorts to cover.