NOAA Degree Days Analysis: Week Ending 2026-11-07

Executive Summary

Unseasonably warm weather across the continental United States for the week ending November 7, 2026, drove national population-weighted Heating Degree Days (HDDs) to 72.0, falling 29.0 HDDs (-28.7%) below normal levels. Demand destruction was overwhelmingly concentrated in core heating markets, with the East and Midwest recording severe deficits of -46.0 HDDs and -43.0 HDDs, respectively. This widespread heating shortfall represents a distinctly bearish physical backdrop for natural gas (NG), setting up a loose supply-demand balance and supporting late-season net storage injections or delayed withdrawals.

Weather Snapshot

National heating demand was subdued relative to 30-year climatological norms, while cooling requirements provided negligible offset as the country moved deeper into autumn:

• National: 72.0 HDDs (vs. 101.0 normal, -29.0 deviation); 8.0 CDDs (vs. 5.0 normal, +3.0 deviation).
• East: 66.0 HDDs (vs. 112.0 normal, -46.0 deviation); 8.0 CDDs (vs. 5.3 normal, +2.7 deviation).
• Midwest: 107.5 HDDs (vs. 150.5 normal, -43.0 deviation); 0.0 CDDs (flat to normal).
• South Central: 38.5 HDDs (vs. 64.0 normal, -25.5 deviation); 15.5 CDDs (vs. 7.0 normal, +8.5 deviation).
• Mountain: 119.0 HDDs (vs. 128.0 normal, -9.0 deviation); 1.0 CDD (vs. 3.0 normal, -2.0 deviation).
• Pacific: 78.0 HDDs (vs. 72.0 normal, +6.0 deviation); 0.0 CDDs (vs. 2.0 normal, -2.0 deviation).

The East and Midwest posted the most acute deviations from seasonal expectations, registering deficits exceeding 28% to 41% of normal heating load. The Pacific was the sole region experiencing colder-than-normal conditions, running 6.0 HDDs above normal.

Natural Gas Demand Implications

The significant HDD deficit across high-density residential and commercial (res/comm) heating sectors—specifically the East and Midwest—drives substantial space-heating demand destruction:

• Res/Comm Space Heating: In early November, base heating demand ramps sharply. A national deficit of -29.0 HDDs, heavily weighted toward high-consuming East and Midwest territories, likely reduced aggregate residential and commercial burn by several Bcf/d relative to normal weekly averages.
• Power Burn Offsets: While the South Central region generated a minor surplus in CDDs (15.5 vs. 7.0 normal), marginal power burn for air conditioning in early November is minimal and incapable of counteracting the volumetric loss of res/comm heating demand.
• Storage Trajectory: Early November represents the traditional shoulder-to-winter transition period, when weekly changes typically pivot from net injections to the first net withdrawals. The steep weather-driven demand shortfall will likely push the corresponding EIA print to a looser-than-normal outcome, either extending storage refill season or keeping initial seasonal withdrawals uncharacteristically light.

Forward-Looking Context

• Seasonal Baselines: While November HDDs carry less raw volumetric weight per degree day than peak January or February cold snaps, early-season deficits delay the seasonal inventory draw-down curve, elevating entering-winter inventory cushions.
• Supply-Side Implications: Above-normal temperatures eliminate early freeze-off risks across production basins in the Appalachia and South Central regions, keeping domestic dry gas output unconstrained.
• Caveats & Non-Weather Factors: Weather is only one component of the fundamental balance. Analysts should monitor domestic production runs, LNG feedgas intake levels, and wind generation intermittency, which may alter power sector gas consumption independent of ambient temperatures. Weather updates and market shifts can be tracked through the weather and market balance streams.