NOAA Degree Days Analysis: Week Ending 2026-10-10

Executive Summary

For the week ending October 10, 2026, national population-weighted weather patterns reflected early-shoulder-season conditions, characterized by 18.0 Heating Degree Days (HDDs) and 29.0 Cooling Degree Days (CDDs). National HDD fell 1.0 degree day below normal, while CDD printed 5.0 degree days above normal, driven primarily by late-season heat across the Western United States. Regional divergence was sharp, with unseasonable heating demand in the East (+21.3 HDD deviation) offset by significant warmth in the Mountain and Pacific regions, holding overall natural gas physical burns relatively subdued.

Weather Snapshot

National population-weighted metrics registered modest deviations from base normals: - National Totals: 18.0 HDDs (deviation of -1.0) and 29.0 CDDs (deviation of +5.0). - East: Strongest cold anomaly nationally, recording 54.5 HDDs (+21.3 deviation) alongside 13.7 CDDs (-3.0 deviation). - Midwest: Moderating temperatures yielded 42.4 HDDs (-1.8 deviation) and 6.5 CDDs (-8.5 deviation). - South Central: Mild conditions suppressed power burn, generating 48.0 CDDs (-7.0 deviation) and 6.5 HDDs (-0.5 deviation). - Mountain: Pronounced warmth resulted in 17.0 HDDs (-36.0 deviation) and 35.0 CDDs (+19.0 deviation). - Pacific: Significant anomalous warmth produced 55.0 CDDs (+54.0 deviation) with 20.5 HDDs (-15.3 deviation).

Regional weather trends can be tracked through our [natural gas weather dashboard].

Natural Gas Demand Implications

The weather distribution produced an asymmetrical demand profile across natural gas consumer sectors:

• Residential/Commercial (Res/Comm): The East region's HDD positive deviation (+21.3) supported early-cycle space-heating demand across major population centers. However, this was largely neutralized nationally by the Mountain (-36.0 HDD deviation) and Pacific (-15.3 HDD deviation) basins, preventing any meaningful early-season national heating demand surge.
• Electric Power Burn: South Central cooling demand contracted (-7.0 CDD deviation), dampening peak gas-fired generation in the key ERCOT and MISO footprints. Although the Pacific region witnessed an extreme CDD surplus (+54.0 deviation), late-autumn power burn elasticity in the West remains insufficient to compensate for reduced southern air-conditioning loads.
• Storage Balance: Because October represents peak injection season before net withdrawals begin, net national weather-driven consumption was slightly loose. The cooling deficit in the South Central region favors healthy injections into salt and non-salt caverns, reinforcing loose balances ahead of upcoming EIA storage inventory prints and keeping front-month NG futures fundamentally anchored.

Forward-Looking Context

• Shoulder-Season Sensitivity: Early October degree day totals carry lower per-unit volumetric sensitivity compared to mid-winter HDDs or mid-summer CDDs. Baseline demand thresholds mean that a CDD surplus of 5.0 degree days in October generates materially less power burn than an equivalent deviation in July or August.
• Regional Pipeline Dynamics: Elevated East HDDs may prompt localized spot basis strength at regional delivery points, even as broader benchmark contracts trade on national balances.
• Seasonal Trajectory: As the market transitions out of shoulder season into November, heating requirements will become the primary catalyst for price formation and physical withdrawals on the national natural gas balance. Market participants should monitor whether the Pacific warmth migrates eastward or yields to early cold-air outbreaks from Canada.