NOAA Degree Days Analysis: Week Ending 2026-08-15

Executive Summary

U.S. weather was moderately warmer than normal for the week, driven by intense heat in the South Central region. This deviation implies stronger-than-average power burn for air conditioning, likely resulting in a smaller-than-normal weekly injection into Natural Gas storage inventories.

Weather Snapshot

Nationally, population-weighted Cooling Degree Days (CDDs) totaled 88.0, which was 2.0 CDDs above the seasonal norm. Heating Degree Days (HDDs) were negligible at 0.0, as is typical for mid-August.

The national average masks significant regional variations: * South Central: Experienced extreme heat, finishing the week with a massive surplus of 19.0 CDDs above normal. * Pacific: Was significantly cooler than normal, with a deviation of -8.0 CDDs. * Mountain: Also saw cooler temperatures, running a deficit of -7.0 CDDs. * Midwest: Was slightly warmer than average, with a deviation of +1.5 CDDs. * East: Was slightly cooler than normal, posting a deviation of -1.0 CDDs.

Natural Gas Demand Implications

The hotter-than-normal national weather profile points to a bullish impact on Natural Gas demand for the week. The intense heat in the South Central region, a key area for gas-fired power generation, is the primary driver of this demand strength. Increased electricity demand for air conditioning in this region significantly boosts the volume of gas consumed by power plants (power burn).

While cooler conditions in the Pacific and Mountain regions provided a partial offset, the magnitude of the heat in the South Central region dominates the national picture. This higher demand backdrop means less gas was available for injection into storage. Consequently, the upcoming EIA storage report is expected to show a net injection below the five-year average, which is supportive for near-term NG futures prices.

Forward-Looking Context

This analysis is retrospective and reflects conditions that the market has likely already priced in. As of mid-August, the market is in the final stretch of the summer cooling season. While strong CDDs are expected, the positive deviation from normal is the key factor that tightens the supply/demand balance. Each below-average storage injection reduces the inventory cushion ahead of the upcoming winter heating season, which will soon become the market's primary focus.