NOAA Degree Days Analysis: Week Ending 2026-08-01

Executive Summary

The U.S. experienced cooler-than-normal weather on a national population-weighted basis, driven by a significant cool spell in the high-demand East region. This pattern suggests lower-than-average natural gas demand for power generation. Consequently, the weekly storage injection is expected to be larger than the 5-year average.

Weather Snapshot

Nationally, the U.S. recorded 83.0 population-weighted Cooling Degree Days (CDDs), which is 6.0 CDDs below normal for this time of year. Heating Degree Days (HDDs) were negligible, as expected in peak summer.

The national average masks significant regional variations: * East Region: Experienced substantially cooler-than-normal conditions, posting 60.0 CDDs, a deviation of -28.7 CDDs from the norm. This was the most significant bearish deviation in the country. * Mountain Region: Was significantly hotter than normal, with 109.0 CDDs, representing a deviation of +29.0 CDDs. * Pacific Region: Also saw intense heat, registering 66.0 CDDs, a deviation of +26.0 CDDs above normal. * South Central & Midwest: Were much closer to seasonal norms, with deviations of -0.5 and -3.5 CDDs, respectively.

Natural Gas Demand Implications

The cooler-than-normal national weather profile points to bearish natural gas demand for the week.

• Demand Impact: The substantial negative CDD deviation in the densely populated East region significantly curbed national air conditioning demand. This outweighs the increased power burn from the heat waves in the less-populated Mountain and Pacific regions. The result is lower aggregate demand for natural gas from the power sector compared to a typical week in early August.

• Storage Impact: With lower weather-driven demand, more gas was likely available for injection into underground storage. We can anticipate the upcoming EIA storage report to show a net injection that is larger than the five-year average for this week.

Forward-Looking Context

This analysis occurs during the peak of the summer cooling season, a period that typically features the highest power burn and, consequently, the smallest weekly storage injections of the summer.

• Caveats: This outlook is based solely on temperature data. Actual consumption can be influenced by other factors, including power generation from renewables (wind/solar), coal-to-gas switching economics, and unplanned power plant or pipeline outages.
• Seasonal Significance: A week with below-normal cooling demand in early August is particularly noteworthy. It provides a valuable opportunity to build storage inventories at a time when stockpiles are usually growing at their slowest pace, helping to improve the storage trajectory heading into the winter withdrawal season.