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Natural Gas COT — Week of September 25, 2026

Natural Gas — CFTC Positioning Report (Week of September 25, 2026)

Executive summary

The CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders report for Natural Gas (NG) for the week ending September 25, 2026, reflects a notable short-covering squeeze and structural rotation among speculative and non-commercial market participants:

  • Managed Money Short Covering: Speculative funds slashed their gross short positions by 32,457 contracts, bringing net managed money positioning to -65,547 contracts from -100,205 contracts the prior week.
  • Open Interest Expansion: Total market open interest expanded by 17,143 contracts to 1,837,146 contracts, continuing a broad upward climb toward new highs for the year.
  • Speculative Absorption: The aggressive short-covering by managed money was heavily absorbed by other reportables adding massive short exposure (+26,227 contracts), while swap dealers and producers steadily added to their long inventories.
  • Price Reaction: Prompt futures rallied sharply during the reporting week, moving from $2.899 on September 18 to peak at $3.224 on September 24 before closing at $3.151 on September 25.

Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

Positioning across the major disaggregated categories as of September 25, 2026:

Category Gross Long Gross Short Spreading Net Position Net % of OI
Managed Money 266,563 332,110 653,249 -65,547 -3.57%
Producer/Merchant 239,910 263,630 — -23,720 -1.29%
Swap Dealers 248,325 21,081 117,599 +227,244 +12.37%
Other Reportables 39,799 190,782 215,326 -150,983 -8.22%
Nonreportable 56,375 43,369 — +13,006 +0.71%

Historical Context & Extremes

  • Managed Money Net Position: At -65,547 contracts, the net managed money position has recovered to its least bearish level since early July 2026 (-60,295 contracts on July 10), rebounding substantially from extreme net short exposure in mid-August (-110,630 contracts on August 14).
  • Swap Dealer Net Longs: Swap dealers extended their net long position to a high of +227,244 contracts (13.5% long vs. 1.1% short of total OI), up steadily from +130,632 contracts in late December 2025.
  • Managed Money Spreading: Spreading volume remained elevated at 653,249 contracts (35.6% of open interest), near the peak recorded on September 4, 2026 (648,453 contracts).

Flows and week-over-week changes

The total change in open interest for the week was +17,143 contracts. Category flows were marked by sizable gross rearrangements:

  • Managed Money: Added 2,201 long contracts and eliminated 32,457 short contracts, representing a net weekly bullish shift of +34,658 contracts. Spreading increased by 7,696 contracts.
  • Producer/Merchant: Added 5,642 long contracts while adding 12,155 short contracts, shifting net positioning more short by -6,513 contracts.
  • Swap Dealers: Increased gross longs by 6,160 contracts and added 2,875 shorts, expanding their net long book by +3,285 contracts. Spreading decreased by 1,160 contracts.
  • Other Reportables: Decreased longs by 3,374 contracts and heavily expanded shorts by 26,227 contracts, generating a net weekly bearish shift of -29,601 contracts.
  • Nonreportable (Retail/Small Traders): Shed 158 longs and added 1,671 shorts (net shift of -1,829 contracts).
Managed Money Net Weekly Flow:      +34,658 contracts (Bullish Cover)
Other Reportables Net Weekly Flow:  -29,601 contracts (Bearish Add)
Producer/Merchant Net Weekly Flow:   -6,513 contracts (Hedging Add)
Swap Dealers Net Weekly Flow:        +3,285 contracts (Net Long Add)

Commercials vs speculators

  • Speculators (Managed Money): Speculators engaged in one of their largest single-week short-covering events of the year (-32,457 short contracts). Despite the aggressive cover, their gross short base remains substantial at 332,110 contracts (18.1% of OI), leaving ample fuel for further short squeezes if fundamental support holds.
  • Commercial Hedgers (Producer/Merchant & Swap Dealers):
    • Producers raised gross short hedging to 263,630 contracts as prompt prices rebounded above $3.00/MMBtu, locking in downside protection into the shoulder season.
    • Swap dealers maintained their heavily long posture (248,325 longs vs 21,081 shorts), providing institutional counterpart liquidity to commercial short-hedging and speculative positioning.
  • Concentration: The top 4 gross long traders control 18.0% of the market (top 8 hold 27.9%), while the top 4 gross short traders command 24.0% of open interest (top 8 hold 34.1%). Net concentration reveals the largest 4 short traders holding 10.2% of net open interest.

Open interest and participation

  • Total Open Interest: Advanced to 1,837,146 contracts, up 17,143 contracts WoW. Total OI has increased steadily from early 2026 levels (~1.50M–1.53M contracts in January–March 2026), demonstrating sustained capital deployment across the Natural Gas curve.
  • Trader Count: Total active reporting entities stood at 327 traders (matching peak participation seen in July and September 2026).
  • Category Participation:
    • Managed Money: 70 long, 56 short, 90 spreading (total MM traders: 216).
    • Producer/Merchant: 50 long, 44 short.
    • Swap Dealers: 25 long, 9 short.
    • Other Reportables: 45 long, 55 short.

Price context

Prompt NG futures demonstrated high volatility and upward momentum leading directly into the September 25, 2026 report date:

2026-09-18: $2.899
2026-09-21: $2.829 (-2.41%)
2026-09-22: $3.018 (+6.68%)
2026-09-23: $3.044 (+0.86%)
2026-09-24: $3.224 (+5.91%)
2026-09-25: $3.151 (-2.26%)

Over the full reporting window (closing September 18 to September 25), prices gained +8.69% (+25.2 cents), breaking through the $3.00 handle for the first time since June 2026. The price action aligns cleanly with the managed money flow: the rapid +39.5 cent rally between September 21 ($2.829) and September 24 ($3.224) directly coincided with over 32k contracts of managed money short covering.

Risks and watchpoints

  • Residual Speculative Short Exposure: Managed money remains gross short 332,110 contracts. Continued price stability above the $3.00/MMBtu threshold threatens further forced short-covering and volatility spikes.
  • Other Reportable Position Divergence: Other reportable entities absorbed the bulk of the short side this week (+26,227 short contracts to reach 190,782 gross shorts). If this cohort faces margin pressure from continued rallies, liquidations could amplify upside moves.
  • Producer Hedging Resistance: As prices moved above $3.15–$3.20, producer/merchant gross short additions (+12,155) accelerated, signaling increased structural supply overhead.
  • Shoulder Season Fundamentals: Cross-check positioning shifts against injection metrics and weather outlooks available on the Natural Gas EIA, Weather, and Balance dashboards.