Natural Gas COT Report: Week of October 9, 2026

Executive summary

For the reporting week ended October 9, 2026, Natural Gas (NG) futures saw a continuation of bearish speculative sentiment alongside expanding aggregate market exposure:

• Managed Money Net Position: Speculators widened their net short position by 11,738 contracts to -144,537 contracts (218,758 longs vs. 363,295 shorts), driven primarily by fresh short additions.
• Commercial Stance: Producers and merchants trimmed their net short book to -8,229 contracts from -14,084 contracts previously, while swap dealers maintained an overwhelmingly net long stance of +228,076 contracts.
• Participation & Open Interest: Total open interest expanded by 33,861 contracts to 1,815,990 contracts, rebounding after the prior week's drop.
• Price Performance: Front-month NYMEX Natural Gas closed at $3.203/MMBtu on October 9, 2026, gaining 5.4% from the prior week's close ($3.039 on October 2) even as speculative short exposure expanded.

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Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

• Managed Money:

  • Net Position: -144,537 contracts (12.0% of OI long, 20.0% of OI short).
  • Context & Extremes: Managed money net short positioning deepened further from -132,799 contracts on October 2, 2026. This is the largest net short exposure recorded in the available series, surpassing the previous trough of -107,255 contracts on August 14, 2026, and significantly lower than the relatively balanced positions observed earlier in the year (e.g., -47 contracts net on February 6, 2026).
  • Spreading Exposure: Managed money calendar spreading remained large at 626,277 contracts (34.5% of total open interest).

• Swap Dealers:

  • Net Position: +228,076 contracts (251,645 longs vs. 23,569 shorts), remaining near recent highs (+227,587 contracts on October 2, 2026, and +227,244 contracts on September 25, 2026).

• Producer / Merchant / Processor / User:

  • Net Position: -8,229 contracts (248,697 longs vs. 256,926 shorts), compared to -14,084 contracts on October 2 and -23,720 contracts on September 25. Producers are at their least net short posture since May 2026.

• Other Reportables & Nonreportable:

  • Other Reportables: Net short of -91,902 contracts (53,521 longs vs. 145,423 shorts), moderating from -98,221 contracts in the prior week.
  • Nonreportable (Small Traders): Net long of +16,592 contracts (55,149 longs vs. 38,557 shorts).

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Flows and week-over-week changes

Category	Gross Long Change	Gross Short Change	Net Weekly Change	Spreading Change
Managed Money	-1,764	+9,974	-11,738	+5,325
Producer / Merchant	+6,639	+784	+5,855	—
Swap Dealers	+858	+369	+489	+5,210
Other Reportables	-2,149	-8,468	+6,319	+19,965
Nonreportable	-223	+702	-925	—
Total Open Interest	—	—	+33,861	—

The defining weekly flow was speculative short accumulation: managed money added 9,974 short contracts while shedding 1,764 long contracts. Commercial producers absorbed this flow by expanding gross longs by 6,639 contracts against a minor addition of 784 shorts.

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Commercials vs speculators

Managed Money Net:      [-144,537]  <--- Trend: Deepening net short
Producer/Merchant Net:  [  -8,229]  <--- Trend: Moderating net short (buying)
Swap Dealers Net:       [+228,076]  <--- Trend: Stable heavy net long

• Speculative Divergence: Managed money short interest continues to build toward cyclical highs at 363,295 contracts (57 traders short vs. 66 long). Despite the price rally during the week, non-commercial money was not shaken out and instead added to outright downside bets.
• Commercial Hedging: Producers and merchants have significantly reduced net hedging exposure over the late summer and early autumn. Commercial net short positioning has tightened from -26,305 contracts on August 14, 2026, to just -8,229 contracts on October 9, 2026, signaling limited appetite or need for aggressive forward selling near current spot levels.

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Open interest and participation

• Total Open Interest: Rose by 33,861 contracts (+1.9%) to 1,815,990 contracts. This follows a sharp liquidation of 55,017 contracts during the week ended October 2, 2026.
• Trader Breadth: Active trader count fell slightly from 324 to 322:
  • Managed money: 66 longs (+1), 57 shorts (+2), 88 spreaders (+3).
  • Producer/Merchant: 45 longs (+2), 39 shorts (+2).
  • Swap dealers: 26 longs (flat), 11 shorts (flat).
• Concentration:
  • Top 4 Traders: Accounted for 8.6% of net long and 10.8% of net short positions; 17.0% of gross long and 22.8% of gross short positions.
  • Top 8 Traders: Accounted for 12.5% of net long and 15.3% of net short positions; 27.4% of gross long and 33.9% of gross short positions. Concentration remains moderate and consistent with historical levels.

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Price context

The price series for the front contract provides the daily closing trajectory leading up to the report date:

• Weekly Price Move: From $3.039/MMBtu on Friday, October 2, 2026, the front month rose steadily:
  • October 5, 2026: $3.080
  • October 6, 2026: $3.117
  • October 7, 2026: $3.215
  • October 8, 2026: $3.132
  • October 9, 2026: $3.203
• Medium-Term Context: Front contracts traded as high as $4.607 on January 30, 2026, before trending lower through spring and summer, ultimately touching a multi-month low of $2.911 on August 6, 2026. Since testing sub-$3.00 levels in late September ($2.950 on October 1, 2026), prices have stabilized and rebounded back into the $3.10–$3.30 range.
• COT Cross-Check: The rise from $3.039 to $3.203 occurred alongside an open interest increase of 33,861 contracts and an expansion of 9,974 managed money shorts. This indicates that the rally was not driven by speculative short-covering, but rather by commercial/other buying absorbing aggressive speculative short additions.

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Risks and watchpoints

• Short Squeeze Potential: With managed money holding 363,295 gross short contracts and net short positioning at series extremes (-144,537 contracts), speculative positioning is heavily stretched to the downside. Any sudden bullish fundamental catalyst could prompt rapid short-covering.
• Commercial Support vs. Resistance: Producer net short exposure is exceptionally light (-8,229 contracts). If prices advance further toward the mid-$3.00s, monitor whether producers re-enter with substantial hedging supply.
• Spreading Weight: Calendar spreading across managed money (626,277 contracts) and other reportables (239,946 contracts) represents over half of total open interest, leaving the market sensitive to curve repricing and roll periods.