Natural Gas Futures (NYMEX) - COT Report for the week ending April 17, 2026

Executive summary

This report covers positioning in NYMEX Natural Gas futures for the week ending Tuesday, April 14, 2026, with data released on April 17, 2026. The key development was a massive increase in bearish sentiment from speculative traders. Managed Money added aggressively to short positions, driving their net short exposure to -114,095 contracts, the most bearish level in the provided dataset. This flow occurred as prices probed new lows for the period. In contrast, Commercial (Producer/Merchant) positioning remained relatively neutral. The substantial build in speculative shorts was largely absorbed by Swap Dealers, whose net long position swelled to +181,454 contracts. The sharp rise in Open Interest alongside the increase in shorts indicates new bearish bets entering the market.

Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

• Managed Money (Speculators): Net position plunged to -114,095 contracts, a significant increase from the prior week's -86,033 net short. This is the largest net short position seen over the available historical data, surpassing the previous extreme of -105,134 contracts in mid-January 2026. The gross short position of 281,875 contracts is now 1.68x the size of the gross long position of 167,780.
• Producer/Merchant (Commercials): Remained modestly net short at -10,542 contracts, a slight increase in the net short from the prior week's -9,428 contracts. This position is not extreme and suggests a relatively balanced hedging book among physical market participants at current price levels.
• Swap Dealers: This category holds the primary offsetting position to speculators, with their net long increasing to +181,454 contracts. This is a very large net long exposure, reflecting their role as counterparties to fund selling.
• Other Reportables: Hold a significant net short of -72,793 contracts.

Flows and week-over-week changes

The reporting week saw a substantial shift in positions, driven almost entirely by Managed Money's bearish activity. - Managed Money: Executed the most significant change, adding a massive +38,381 short contracts while also adding a more modest +10,319 long contracts. The net effect was an increase in their net short position by 28,062 contracts. - Producer/Merchant: Showed limited activity, with a small reduction in both longs (-3,939) and shorts (-2,825), indicating a slight decrease in hedging activity. - Swap Dealers: Increased their net long exposure by adding +7,340 long contracts and cutting -2,599 shorts. - Nonreportable (Small Speculators): Flipped from a net long to a larger net long position, with their net position rising to +15,976 contracts. This was driven by a significant reduction in shorts (-6,146).

Commercials vs speculators

The classic dynamic of Commercials holding a large net short against a Speculator net long is absent. - Speculators (Managed Money) are positioned with extreme bearishness. The group's gross short exposure now accounts for 17.8% of the market's total open interest, a very significant share. - Commercials (Producer/Merchant) are positioned near neutral. Their -10,542 contract net short position is minor relative to the overall market size, suggesting that producers are not aggressively hedging forward production at these prices, and/or merchants see value in buying forward. - The primary positioning conflict is between the large Managed Money short and the very large Swap Dealer long. This highlights the role of financial intermediaries in warehousing the risk from speculative flows.

Open interest and participation

• Open Interest: Total open interest rose by +26,377 contracts to 1,585,240. An increase in open interest during a period of rising short positions confirms that the move was driven by new selling ("fresh shorts") rather than the liquidation of long positions.
• Participation: Managed Money accounts for a substantial 34.8% of Open Interest through spreading positions (552,098 contracts), indicating significant activity in calendar spreads and relative value plays in addition to outright directional bets.
• Concentration: The market shows a notable concentration on the short side. The largest 4 traders by gross position hold 24.7% of all short contracts, and the largest 8 hold 36.8%. This concentration is higher than on the long side (20.2% and 30.9%, respectively).

Price context

The provided daily price series shows that Natural Gas prices were in a distinct downtrend leading into the April 14th survey date. - The front-month contract fell from $2.818 on April 2nd to a low of $2.594 on April 14th, the day positions were measured. - The aggressive addition of 38,381 short contracts by Managed Money directly corresponds with this price decline, suggesting that trend-following strategies were actively pressing their bearish advantage as the market made new lows. - Following the Tuesday survey, prices saw a modest rebound, closing the week on Friday, April 17th, at $2.676. The positioning data, released on this day, reveals a market heavily skewed with speculative shorts.

Risks and watchpoints

• Crowded Short Trade: The extreme net short position held by Managed Money is the most significant risk factor. A position of this size is vulnerable to a "short squeeze," where any unexpected bullish catalyst could force a rapid wave of buying to cover shorts, accelerating a price rally.
• Commercial Neutrality: The lack of heavy producer hedging (a large commercial net short) at these levels could be interpreted as a sign that physical market participants see limited downside from here. Any shift by this group toward net long positioning would be a strong bullish signal.
• Open Interest as a Guide: Continued monitoring of open interest will be critical. If a price rally is accompanied by a sharp drop in open interest, it would confirm a short-covering squeeze. Conversely, if a rally occurs with rising open interest, it would signal that new buyers are entering and the trend may be reversing more sustainably.