Live Cattle (LC) COT Positioning Report – Week of September 25, 2026

Executive summary

The CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 25, 2026, shows modest short-covering by trend-following speculators alongside an uptick in overall open interest. Managed Money held a net long position of 49,090 contracts, expanding net exposure by +1,394 contracts week-over-week, driven predominantly by short liquidation (-1,810 contracts) rather than fresh long allocation (-416 contracts).

Total open interest rose by 2,771 contracts to 284,889 contracts, continuing a mild stabilization following the multi-month liquidation cycle that saw open interest fall from spring 2026 peaks above 364,000 contracts. Commercial hedgers (Producer/Merchant/Processor/Users) expanded their net short footprint slightly to -87,543 contracts (+1,215 contracts net short), maintaining conservative hedging levels well below the heavy forward sales observed in Q2 2026.

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Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

Trader Category	Gross Long	Gross Short	Spreading	Net Position	WoW Net Change
Managed Money	80,270	31,180	42,165	+49,090	+1,394
Producer/Merchant	42,214	129,757	—	-87,543	-1,215
Swap Dealers	68,038	3,722	1,568	+64,316	-908
Other Reportables	12,902	33,680	12,685	-20,778	-1,850
Nonreportable	25,047	30,132	—	-5,085	+2,579

Historical Perspective & Extremes

• Managed Money Net Long (+49,090 contracts): Speculative net length remains near multi-month lows. It is slightly above the cycle trough of +47,696 contracts recorded on September 18, 2026, and significantly deflated compared to the peak bullish sentiment in April–May 2026, when net length reached +138,018 contracts (May 8, 2026).
• Managed Money Gross Shorts (31,180 contracts): Although down 1,810 contracts on the week, gross speculative shorts remain elevated relative to the 10,000–16,000 contract range maintained during the spring rally, indicating persistent macro or seasonal bearish interest.
• Producer/Merchant Net Short (-87,543 contracts): Commercial net short exposure sits well above its deepest hedging level of -151,522 contracts set on April 17, 2026, reflecting reduced need for commercial downside protection at current positioning levels.

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Flows and week-over-week changes

Managed money positioning shifts this week were characterized by short reduction rather than aggressive buying:

Managed Money Flows:
  Gross Longs:       80,270  (-416)
  Gross Shorts:      31,180  (-1,810)
  Net Change:        +1,394  (Short covering)
  Spreading:         42,165  (+11)

Commercial (Producer/Merchant) Flows:
  Gross Longs:       42,214  (+2,384)
  Gross Shorts:     129,757  (+3,599)
  Net Change:        -1,215  (Net short expansion)

Swap Dealer Flows:
  Gross Longs:       68,038  (-1,852)
  Gross Shorts:       3,722  (-944)
  Net Change:          -908  (Net long contraction)

Nonreportable (retail/small trader) accounts trimmed net short exposure sharply (+2,579 contracts net) via 1,409 long additions and 1,170 short liquidations, bringing their net position to -5,085 contracts.

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Commercials vs speculators

+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Commercials (Producer/Merchant):       -87,543 net contracts            |
| Speculators (Managed Money):           +49,090 net contracts            |
| Swap Dealers (Index/Intermediaries):   +64,316 net contracts            |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+

• Speculative Conviction: Managed Money accounts control 28.2% of total long open interest versus 10.9% of short open interest and 14.8% in spreading. Bullish speculative conviction remains muted compared to earlier in the year when funds held over 40% of gross long open interest.
• Commercial Hedging: Producer/Merchants hold 45.5% of gross short open interest. The balance of commercial positioning shows steady absorption of supply without the aggressive hedging surges seen in late Q1 and Q2 2026.
• Swap Dealers: Swaps maintain a stable structural long bias at 68,038 contracts (23.9% of open interest), largely reflecting index-tracking allocations and retail product hedging.

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Open interest and participation

• Total Open Interest: 284,889 contracts (+2,771 WoW, or +0.98%).
• Trader Breadth: Total reportable traders decreased slightly to 374 (down from 378 on September 18 and a peak of 428 in April/May 2026).
  • Managed Money long trader count: 73 (vs. 66 prior week).
  • Managed Money short trader count: 31 (vs. 38 prior week).
  • Producer/Merchant short trader count: 131 (vs. 133 prior week).
• Concentration Ratios:
  • Top 4 Traders: 13.3% Net Long / 15.2% Net Short (13.8% Gross Long / 15.4% Gross Short).
  • Top 8 Traders: 21.7% Net Long / 24.3% Net Short (23.1% Gross Long / 25.3% Gross Short).
  • Concentration remains evenly distributed and balanced, without outsized crowding among the largest reporting entities.

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Price context

• Market Quotes: Daily settlement and historical price series data for LC front-month contracts were not provided in this reporting set.
• Consequently, technical structure, moving averages, and direct price-positioning divergence cannot be verified quantitatively from the input feed.

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Risks and watchpoints

1. Vulnerability to Further Short-Covering Rallies: Managed money gross short positions remain relatively high at 31,180 contracts compared to baseline levels under 15,000 contracts seen earlier in 2026. Any fundamental supply constriction could trigger an accelerated short-covering cascade.
2. Absence of Fresh Long Inflows: Despite short covering, managed money gross longs dropped by 416 contracts this week to 80,270—the lowest long count in the provided history. Without net-new long capital entering the complex, upside momentum may face structural friction.
3. Open Interest Stagnation: With open interest lingering below 300,000 contracts (down roughly 22% from the May peak of 364,542), overall liquidity in Live Cattle remains seasonally reduced, increasing the potential for outsized price volatility on unexpected cash-market or packer-demand developments.