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Live Cattle COT — Week of October 2, 2026

Live Cattle (LC) COT Report — Week Ended October 2, 2026

Executive summary

The CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders report for Live Cattle (LC) for the week ending October 2, 2026, showed a moderate expansion in aggregate open interest alongside renewed speculative buying and increased commercial hedging.

  • Managed Money expanded its net long position by 4,103 contracts to +53,193 contracts, driven by a combination of new long additions (+1,452) and short covering (-2,651).
  • Commercial Hedgers (Producer/Merchant/Processor/User) ramped up gross short positions aggressively, adding 7,670 short contracts, widening their net short exposure to -95,274 contracts.
  • Open Interest climbed by 8,750 contracts (+3.07%) to 293,639 contracts, moving off the summer lows seen in August 2026 (276,625 contracts).
  • Swap Dealers remained heavily net long at +65,281 contracts (69,039 longs vs. 3,758 shorts), adding 1,001 long contracts WoW.

Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

Speculative positioning in Live Cattle remains well below the extreme bullish levels recorded earlier in the spring, though it has stabilized from the late-summer contraction.

+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Live Cattle (LC) Net Positioning Summary (Contracts)                        |
+----------------------+--------------------+--------------------+------------+
| Category             | Oct 02, 2026 (Net) | Sep 25, 2026 (Net) | Net Change |
+----------------------+--------------------+--------------------+------------+
| Managed Money        | +53,193            | +49,090            | +4,103     |
| Producer/Merchant    | -95,274            | -87,543            | -7,731     |
| Swap Dealers         | +65,281            | +64,316            | +965       |
| Other Reportables    | -18,025            | -20,778            | +2,753     |
| Nonreportable (Retail)| -5,175            | -5,085             | -90        |
+----------------------+--------------------+--------------------+------------+
  • Managed Money Net Stance: At +53,193 contracts, the net long position sits well below the 2026 peak of +138,018 contracts reached on May 8, 2026 (149,791 longs vs. 11,773 shorts), but represents a bounce off the September 2026 trough of +47,696 contracts (September 18).
  • Historical Comparison: Gross managed money longs stand at 81,722 contracts (27.8% of OI), compared to the 52-week peak of 149,791 contracts in May 2026. Managed money shorts sit at 28,529 contracts (9.7% of OI), moderately trimmed from the recent peak of 33,382 contracts on September 11, 2026.

Flows and week-over-week changes

Total open interest grew by 8,750 contracts to 293,639 contracts during the reporting week. The flows reflect distinct divergence between physical hedgers and financial participants:

+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Week-over-Week Position Changes (Contracts)                                 |
+----------------------+------------+------------+------------+---------------+
| Category             | Long Gross | Short Gross| Spreading  | Net Stance    |
+----------------------+------------+------------+------------+---------------+
| Managed Money        | +1,452     | -2,651     | +3,153     | +4,103 (Long) |
| Producer/Merchant    | -61        | +7,670     | N/A        | -7,731 (Short)|
| Swap Dealers         | +1,001     | +36        | -171       | +965 (Long)   |
| Other Reportables    | +1,445     | -1,308     | +1,330     | +2,753 (Long) |
| Nonreportable        | +601       | +691       | N/A        | -90 (Short)   |
+----------------------+------------+------------+------------+---------------+
  • Managed Money Rebuilding: Speculators expanded exposure via +1,452 outright longs and an increase of +3,153 spreading contracts (to 45,318), while buying back 2,651 short contracts.
  • Producer Hedging Surge: The single largest flow was a +7,670 contract expansion in gross producer shorts (now at 137,427 contracts), reflecting producer forward sales and feedlot hedging.

Commercials vs speculators

The commercial-to-speculative dynamic shows typical structural alignment, with commercial entities absorbing speculative long demand:

  • Producer/Merchant Net Short: Commercial producers hold 42,153 longs vs. 137,427 shorts, resulting in a net short stance of -95,274 contracts (representing 46.8% of total short open interest).
  • Speculator Share: Managed Money accounts for 27.8% of total open interest on the long side and 9.7% on the short side. Spreading accounts for another 15.4% of open interest.
  • Divergence: While Managed Money added to net length for a second consecutive week (+4,103 contracts), Producer/Merchants stepped up producer hedge selling (+7,670 short contracts), indicating commercials capitalized on recent strength to lock in prices.

Open interest and participation

  • Aggregate Open Interest: Total open interest increased by 8,750 contracts (+3.07%) to 293,639 contracts. This follows an expansion from the late-August low of 276,625 contracts, though it remains below the May 2026 peak of 364,542 contracts.
  • Trader Breadth: Total reporting traders rose by 12 to 386 traders (from 374 prior week).
    • Managed money long trader count declined slightly from 73 to 72, while short traders rose from 31 to 35. Managed money spreading traders expanded from 62 to 67.
    • Producer/Merchant short trader count rose to 137 (from 131), matching the addition of commercial short contracts.
  • Concentration: Concentration ratios remained stable:
    • Top 4 largest traders hold 13.9% of gross long OI and 15.8% of gross short OI.
    • Top 8 largest traders hold 22.9% of gross long OI and 25.3% of gross short OI.
    • Net concentration for the top 8 traders stands at 21.0% long and 24.0% short.

Price context

Note: Price series quotes were not provided in the input data feed for this reporting cycle.

Based strictly on COT flow dynamics: - The expansion of open interest (+8,750) accompanying net long speculative buying (+4,103) alongside heavy commercial short hedging (+7,670) is characteristic of a market attempting to build a directional leg, met by willing producer supply at current price levels.

Risks and watchpoints

  • Commercial Supply Pressure: The sharp addition of +7,670 commercial short contracts indicates robust producer selling interest. If speculative demand falters, commercial overhead supply could cap upside momentum.
  • Managed Money Short Covering Fatigue: Out of the +4,103 net long expansion in Managed Money, 2,651 contracts (64.6%) came from short covering. Outright long additions (+1,452) remain relatively modest compared to historical positioning surges, suggesting that fresh speculative buying conviction is still tentative.
  • Spreading Exposure: Managed money spreading positions increased to 45,318 contracts (15.4% of total open interest), pointing to significant inter-month calendar spread and curve positioning that could cause volatility during contract roll windows.