Gold Physical Market Brief: 2026-09-16

Executive summary

Physical delivery intentions for the September GC contract showed a notable increase today, continuing an accelerating trend seen over the past three sessions. A total of 204 new contracts were issued, bringing the month-to-date total to 3,224. This firming physical demand aligns with the strongly net-long positioning held by Managed Money speculators as of the latest COT report, suggesting that for now, paper and physical markets are in broad agreement on the bullish side.

Delivery intentions (today + MTD context)

Demand for physical delivery has strengthened this week. * Today's Activity: For the SEPTEMBER 2026 contract, 204 contracts were issued for delivery, and 204 were stopped (claimed by buyers). * Month-to-Date (MTD): The total for the September contract now stands at 3,224 contracts. * Recent Trend: Today's volume of 204 contracts represents a significant step-up from recent days. It follows 150 contracts on Sep 15 and 70 contracts on Sep 14, indicating an accelerating pace of physical settlement demand as the week progresses.

Warehouse stocks

CME does not publish specific, daily warehouse stock levels for COMEX Gold. Analysis must rely on delivery intentions and flows.

COT cross-check

The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) data, reported as of September 11, provides a useful cross-check against the recent physical activity. * Managed Money (Speculators): This group held a significant net-long position of +134,972 contracts (145,804 long vs. 10,832 short). * Producer/Merchant (Commercials): Commercials held a corresponding net-short position of -30,961 contracts. * Positioning vs. Physical Flow: The strong net-long speculative positioning is consistent with the recent acceleration in physical delivery demand. The uptick in contracts being stopped for delivery suggests that bullish conviction is not limited to the paper market and that some participants are seeking to take ownership of the physical metal.

Risks and watchpoints

• Sustained Delivery Pace: The key watchpoint is whether the accelerated pace of delivery intentions seen over the last three sessions can be sustained through the remainder of the September delivery period. A continuation would signal robust underlying physical demand.
• Context of Volume: While the recent trend is positive, the current month-to-date total of 3,224 contracts remains modest compared to the more than 20,000 contracts delivered against the August contract.
• COT Data Lag: The COT data is as of last Friday, September 11. Market positioning may have shifted since then. A divergence could emerge if speculative length has been reduced while physical demand continues to firm up.