Gold Physical Market Brief: 2026-09-03

Executive summary

Physical delivery intentions for the September Gold futures contract (GC) continue, with 44 new notices posted today. This brings the month-to-date total to 2,555 contracts. The pace of delivery has slowed significantly after a strong start to the month. This moderate physical offtake is set against a backdrop of very strong bullish speculative positioning, with Managed Money holding a large net long position as of the latest COT report. The key question is whether physical demand will accelerate to match the bullishness seen in the paper market.

Delivery intentions (today + MTD context)

For September 3rd, a total of 44 contracts were issued and stopped for the active SEPTEMBER 2026 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES contract.

• Today's Activity: 44 contracts
• Month-to-Date (MTD) Total: 2,555 contracts
• Recent Trend: Today's volume continues a slowdown from the start of the delivery period. The month began with 295 notices on August 31st and 429 on September 1st, but the last two sessions have seen much lower volumes of 35 and 44 contracts, respectively. This suggests the initial wave of physical settlement for the front-month contract may have subsided.

Warehouse stocks

CME/COMEX does not publish detailed, publicly-available warehouse stock levels for Gold. All physical market analysis is based on delivery intentions.

COT cross-check

The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data, as of August 28th, provides a positioning cross-check against the recent physical market activity.

• Managed Money: Speculators held a significant net long position of 144,747 contracts (159,819 long vs. 15,072 short). This indicates strong bullish sentiment leading into the September delivery period.
• Producers/Merchants: Commercials held a net short position of -34,558 contracts, which is typical hedging activity.
• Divergence: The powerful net long speculative position suggests a strong belief in higher prices. The 2,555 contracts delivered so far for September represent a tangible conversion of paper to physical, but the recent slowdown in delivery pace raises questions about whether physical demand is as robust as the speculative positioning implies.

Risks and watchpoints

• Slowing Physical Demand: The sharp drop in daily delivery notices after the first two days of the month is a key watchpoint. If this low pace persists, it may signal that near-term physical demand is being satisfied and could weaken a key pillar of the bullish case.
• Vulnerable Speculative Length: The large net long position held by Managed Money makes the market susceptible to sharp price declines if sentiment shifts. A lack of follow-through in physical deliveries could be a catalyst for long liquidation.
• Open Interest vs. Delivery: Monitoring the Open Interest in the front-month GC contract relative to the delivery volume will be crucial. A high number of longs rolling their positions forward instead of taking delivery would reinforce the theme of paper-market bullishness potentially diverging from underlying physical demand.