Gold Physical Market Brief: September 8, 2026

Executive summary

Physical delivery activity for the September Gold contract continues at a steady pace, with the month-to-date total now exceeding 2,700 contracts. Today's delivery intentions of 162 contracts are a notable increase over the past two sessions, suggesting consistent demand for physical settlement. This physical offtake occurs against a backdrop of very strong net long positioning from Managed Money. While speculative sentiment is clearly bullish, the current pace of physical delivery has not yet matched this enthusiasm, creating a potential divergence to monitor.

Delivery intentions (today + MTD context)

For the active September 2026 contract, today saw 162 new contracts issued for delivery and an equal number stopped (taken for delivery). This brings the month-to-date total to 2,717 contracts.

• Today's Activity (Sep 8): 162 contracts issued/stopped. This is a significant increase from the 44 contracts on Sep 3 and 35 on Sep 2.
• First Notice Day (Sep 1): The delivery month began with a strong 429 contracts.
• Current MTD Total: 2,717 contracts.

The recent pickup in daily intentions suggests that demand for physical settlement remains present as the September delivery window progresses.

Warehouse stocks

CME does not publish detailed, publicly auditable warehouse stock levels for individual depositories for COMEX gold. Therefore, analysis must focus primarily on delivery intentions as the key indicator of physical market tightness.

COT cross-check

The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) data as of September 4, 2026, shows a significant bullish tilt from speculators, which contrasts with the steady, but not explosive, physical delivery demand.

• Managed Money: Funds hold a large net long position of +136,771 contracts (149,721 long vs. 12,950 short).
• Commercials (Producers/Merchants): As is typical, this cohort holds a net short position of -31,289 contracts, likely for hedging purposes.
• Total Open Interest: 415,196 contracts.

The 2,717 contracts stood for delivery this month represent a very small fraction of the total open interest and the speculative net long position. This indicates that the vast majority of bullish paper positions are being held for price exposure rather than for immediate physical acquisition.

Risks and watchpoints

• Pace of Deliveries: Continue to monitor the daily issuance totals for the September GC contract. A sharp acceleration from the current pace could signal tightening physical conditions and provide support for prices.
• Speculative Unwind: The large net long position held by Managed Money represents a key vulnerability. A negative shift in market sentiment could trigger a rapid liquidation of these positions, potentially overwhelming the steady physical demand and pressuring prices lower.
• Paper vs. Physical Divergence: The primary dynamic to watch is the relationship between the strong bullish positioning in the paper market and the more modest, albeit consistent, demand for physical settlement. If physical demand fails to accelerate, the large paper position may be seen as increasingly fragile.