Gold Futures (GOLD) COT Brief: Week Ending 2026-02-20

Executive summary

This report covers positioning in Gold futures for the week ending Tuesday, February 20, 2026. Speculative sentiment turned more bullish, with Managed Money increasing their net long position for the first time in several weeks. This was driven primarily by the addition of new long contracts. In contrast, Swap Dealers significantly reduced their net short exposure by covering short positions. Producer/Merchants added to their net short, but their overall position remains near recent lows. Total open interest saw a minor increase after a period of sharp decline, suggesting some market stabilization. The renewed speculative buying and dealer short-covering coincided with a price rally during the reporting week.

Positioning

• Managed Money (Funds): The key speculative group increased their net long position to +95,893 contracts. This is up from +92,022 contracts the prior week, but remains well below the peak of +134,745 seen in mid-January. Their current gross long position stands at 123,011 contracts versus a small 27,118 contracts short.
• Producer/Merchant (Commercials): This group, typically involved in hedging physical production, increased their net short position to -21,398 contracts from -18,445 last week. However, this is still one of the smallest net short positions in the last two months, far reduced from the -51,165 contracts held on January 16.
• Swap Dealers: This category, which includes dealer banks, holds the largest net short position at -175,384 contracts. This represents a significant reduction from -179,393 contracts the prior week and is substantially smaller than their peak net short of -245,941 contracts in mid-January.

Flows and week-over-week changes

• Managed Money was a net buyer of 3,871 contracts. This move was bullish in composition, consisting of +3,779 new long contracts and a minor reduction of -92 short contracts.
• Swap Dealers were also net buyers, reducing their net short position by 3,909 contracts. This was driven by aggressive short-covering (-5,451 short contracts), which was partially offset by a liquidation of longs (-1,542 contracts).
• Producer/Merchants were net sellers of 2,953 contracts. They reduced their long exposure by -2,094 contracts while adding +859 new shorts.
• Other Reportables were net sellers, reducing their net long position. They liquidated -3,155 long contracts and added +813 shorts.

Commercials vs speculators

The classic market structure persists, with speculators net long against commercial net shorts. - The speculative wing, led by Managed Money, re-established a buying trend this week after several weeks of position reduction from the January peak. - The commercial side shows a divergence. Producers added modestly to hedges, a bearish signal. However, Swap Dealers, the largest commercial short, engaged in significant short-covering. The combined commercial net short position (Producers + Swaps) now stands at -196,782 contracts, a substantial decrease from the -297,106 contracts held just five weeks prior. This shrinking of the commercial short base can be a tailwind for prices.

Open interest and participation

• Total Open Interest (OI) rose slightly by +2,687 contracts to a total of 407,078 contracts.
• This marks a potential stabilization after a massive OI liquidation event between late January and mid-February, where OI fell from a high of 527,455 (Jan 16) to the current low-400k level. The small increase in OI this week alongside rising prices is a constructive sign, suggesting new money may be entering the long side rather than the rally being driven solely by short-covering.
• Concentration on the short side remains high. The largest 4 traders hold 31.5% of the net short position, and the largest 8 traders hold 44.8%. This indicates that the short side is dominated by a few large entities, likely commercials.

Price context

The provided daily price series allows for a cross-check of positioning changes with market action. - The reporting period covers price action from the close of business Tuesday, Feb 13 to Tuesday, Feb 20. - Gold prices rallied during this period. The front-month contract closed at 4974.3 on Feb 13 and finished the reporting week at 5039.5 on Feb 20. - The increase in the Managed Money net long position and the short-covering from Swap Dealers are consistent with this price strength. Speculators were adding to bullish bets as prices rose.

Risks and watchpoints

• Speculative Length: While Managed Money has room to add to longs before reaching January's extremes, their current position of +95,893 contracts is still historically significant. A reversal in price momentum could trigger a rapid liquidation of these positions, creating downside pressure.
• Commercial Short Covering: The continued reduction in the Swap Dealer net short position is a key development. If this trend continues, it removes a significant source of structural selling from the market. Watch to see if this short-covering accelerates, which could fuel further price gains.
• Open Interest: The recent stabilization in OI is a watchpoint. A sustained increase in Open Interest coupled with rising prices would be a strong confirmation of a new bullish leg, signaling that fresh capital is fueling the rally. Conversely, a return to falling OI would suggest the rally is weak and driven by position squaring.