Gold Futures Commitments of Traders - Week Ending 2026-02-13

Executive summary

This week's report shows a market in a state of consolidation after a significant speculative washout in recent weeks. Managed Money positioning was nearly unchanged, holding a net long of +92,022 contracts, which remains near the lowest level in the provided historical data. This follows a period of aggressive long liquidation that coincided with the sharp price drop from late January's highs. In contrast, Commercials (Producer/Merchants) significantly reduced their net short exposure, covering shorts as prices fell. Open interest continued its steep decline, falling by another 5,303 contracts to 404,391. This indicates a continued exit of capital from the market rather than the establishment of new, convicted positions. While the price attempted a recovery during the reporting period, the lack of new speculative buying suggests the rally was driven more by short-covering and may lack durability.

Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

• Managed Money: The speculative net long position is now +92,022 contracts (119,232 long vs. 27,210 short). This is effectively flat from last week's +92,072 contracts and remains the least bullish positioning for this group in the provided data set, which began in late December. This marks a substantial reduction from the peak net length of +134,745 contracts seen on January 16.
• Producer/Merchant (Commercials): This group is net short -18,445 contracts (15,737 long vs. 34,182 short). This is a significant reduction in their short exposure and represents their least bearish positioning in the provided data. For comparison, they were net short by -51,165 contracts on January 16.
• Swap Dealers: Their net short position stands at -179,293 contracts. Similar to Producers, this is the smallest net short position for Swap Dealers in the recent historical data, down from a peak of -245,941 contracts on January 16.

Flows and week-over-week changes

• Managed Money: Activity was muted, signaling indecision. Longs added a negligible 296 contracts while shorts added 346 contracts, resulting in a tiny net change of -50 contracts.
• Producer/Merchant: This group was the most active, significantly reducing their hedges. They added 1,665 long contracts while simultaneously cutting 4,524 short contracts, leading to a 6,189 contract reduction in their net short position.
• Swap Dealers: They also reduced their net short exposure, adding 2,941 longs and cutting 910 shorts.
• Other Reportables: This category saw a notable increase in net short positioning, adding 3,546 short contracts against a reduction of 1,996 longs.

Commercials vs speculators

The classic positioning structure of net-long speculators versus net-short commercials remains intact. However, the recent dynamics are telling. The sharp reduction in Managed Money net length over the past month has been met with an equally significant reduction in the net short positions of both Producer/Merchants and Swap Dealers. This shows commercials actively buying back their short hedges as speculators liquidated long positions during the price decline. The Producer/Merchant net short position has contracted by over 60% from its January 16 peak, a strong signal that they perceive less need to hedge at current or lower price levels.

Open interest and participation

• Open Interest (OI): Total OI fell by another 5,303 contracts to 404,391. This continues a dramatic trend of capital leaving the market. OI has now collapsed by over 123,000 contracts, or 23%, from its recent peak of 527,455 on January 16. This decline alongside a price drop is characteristic of long liquidation, not aggressive new short-selling.
• Concentration: The short side of the market remains highly concentrated. The largest 4 traders hold 32.9% of the net short position, and the largest 8 traders hold 45.9%. This is a slight decrease from prior weeks but still indicates that a few large players dominate the short side.

Price context

The price series reveals a dramatic rally that peaked at $5496.1 on January 29, followed by a severe correction in early February. This report's positioning changes cover the period up to Tuesday, February 10. During this specific period, the price rallied from a close of $4732.0 on February 6 to $5012.4 on February 10. The fact that this ~6% price rally was met with virtually no new buying from Managed Money is a notable bearish divergence. It strongly suggests the bounce was technical and driven by short-covering from the commercial side, not renewed speculative conviction. The price subsequently fell back to $4974.3 by the end of the week (February 13), reinforcing the idea that the rally lacked fundamental buying support.

Risks and watchpoints

• Washed-Out Positioning: With speculative length now at multi-month lows and commercial shorts significantly reduced, the market is arguably "cleaner." There may be less fuel for further long-liquidation-driven declines, which could help establish a price floor.
• Lack of Speculative Buying: The failure of Managed Money to add to long positions during a price rally is a significant watchpoint. A sustainable uptrend would likely require their renewed participation. Until they begin buying again, any rally remains suspect.
• Commercial Behavior: The sharp reduction in commercial short hedging is a supportive underlying factor. Continue to monitor if they maintain this less-hedged posture, as it implies they see value at these levels.
• Open Interest Trend: The key indicator to watch is open interest. A reversal of the steep downtrend, coupled with rising prices, would be the first signal that new, committed capital is entering the market to support a move higher. A continued slide in OI would suggest trader apathy and a vulnerable market.