Gasoline RBOB Futures COT Report - Week Ending 2026-02-13

Executive summary

This week's report reveals a significant and widening divergence in positioning between speculators and commercial hedgers in the Gasoline RBOB market. Managed Money ramped up their net long exposure to a multi-week high, driven by one of the most aggressive bouts of short-covering seen in recent data. This speculative buying was met with equally aggressive selling from Producer/Merchants, who expanded their net short hedge book to its largest level in the provided reporting period. This extreme polarization occurred as prices rallied to a new peak mid-week before sharply reversing, suggesting a potential exhaustion point. The slight contraction in open interest amidst these large flows indicates a transfer of risk rather than a major influx of new capital.

Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

• Managed Money (Speculators): Net position surged to +79,741 contracts, the most bullish stance in the last seven weeks. This was a significant increase from +67,731 contracts the week prior. The position is comprised of 94,517 long contracts versus only 14,776 short contracts, a historically low level of shorts for this category.
• Producer/Merchant (Commercials): Net position fell to a new multi-week low of -114,194 contracts, extending their record net short exposure. This indicates intense hedging activity and a bearish view on prices from physical market participants.
• Swap Dealers: The net long position contracted slightly to +10,545 contracts, down from +13,045 the prior week, suggesting they took the other side of some commercial hedging flows.

Net Positioning History (Last 7 Weeks): | Reporting Date | Managed Money Net | Producer/Merchant Net | Open Interest | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | 2026-02-13 | +79,741 | -114,194 | 463,056 | | 2026-02-06 | +67,731 | -101,902 | 469,165 | | 2026-01-30 | +65,207 | -101,078 | 464,345 | | 2026-01-16 | +57,380 | -95,892 | 450,217 | | 2026-01-09 | +49,065 | -88,972 | 420,878 | | 2026-01-05 | +52,631 | -88,373 | 410,358 | | 2025-12-23 | +62,939 | -86,427 | 422,857 |

Flows and week-over-week changes

The reporting week was characterized by aggressive and opposing flows from the two largest directional players. - Managed Money: Increased their net long position by a massive +12,010 contracts. This change was overwhelmingly driven by short-covering (-10,322 contracts), with a modest addition of new longs (+1,688 contracts). This indicates that capitulation from bears was a primary driver of the positioning shift. - Producer/Merchant: Increased their net short position by a similarly large -12,292 contracts. This was a combination of liquidating long positions (-3,321 contracts) and, more significantly, establishing new short hedges (+8,971 contracts). Commercials were clear sellers into the week's price strength. - Spreading Reduction: Managed Money significantly reduced their spreading positions by 7,712 contracts, which accounts for the majority of the week's drop in total open interest.

Commercials vs speculators

The classic divergence between commercials and speculators is now at a recent extreme. - Speculators (Managed Money) are positioned for further upside, holding their largest net long in this data series. Their bullish conviction is high, as evidenced by the near-total abandonment of short positions. - Commercials (Producer/Merchant) are positioned for a price decline or are locking in margins at current levels. Their net short position of -114,194 contracts represents substantial producer hedging and is a strong signal that the "smart money" finds current prices attractive for selling. This extreme polarization often precedes a period of heightened volatility or a trend reversal.

Open interest and participation

• Open Interest: Total open interest declined modestly by 6,109 contracts to 463,056, despite the large directional flows. This suggests the week's activity was more of a risk transfer between categories, coupled with an unwinding of spread positions, rather than an influx of new market participants.
• Market Share: Producer/Merchants now control a dominant 58.0% of the entire short side of the market. In contrast, Managed Money holds 20.4% of long positions but only 3.2% of short positions, underscoring their one-sided bullish bet.
• Concentration: The short side remains more concentrated than the long side. The largest 4 traders hold 15.3% of the net short position, and the largest 8 hold 20.9%. This reflects the large-scale hedging programs of major commercial entities.

Price context

The positioning changes captured in this report (as of Tuesday, February 10th) coincided with a significant price rally. - The front-month contract climbed from a close of $1.9196 on February 6th to a peak of $1.9869 on February 10th. - The massive short-covering by Managed Money likely helped fuel this rally. Commercials used the price strength as an opportunity to add new hedges. - Crucially, the market was unable to hold these gains. Prices fell sharply in the latter half of the week, with the contract closing at $1.9154 on Friday, February 13th, completely erasing the rally that drove the positioning shift. This price action suggests the heavy commercial selling ultimately absorbed the speculative buying pressure.

Risks and watchpoints

• Extreme Divergence: The primary risk is the record polarization between speculators and commercials. Such a stretched dynamic is often unsustainable. A resolution could be volatile as one side is forced to liquidate.
• Crowded Speculative Longs: The Managed Money net long position is a recent extreme and appears crowded. The sharp price decline late in the week may signal the start of profit-taking. This group is now vulnerable to a long-liquidation cascade if bearish catalysts emerge.
• Commercial Selling Pressure: The record net short from commercials signals a potential ceiling for prices. Their willingness to sell aggressively at these levels may continue to cap rallies.
• Watch Price Action: Given the price reversal after the "as of" date, the key question for next week's report is whether speculators began to liquidate their newly established long exposure or if they absorbed the selling and are re-engaging.