Gasoline RBOB Futures: Week Ending February 20, 2026

Executive summary

Speculative positioning in Gasoline RBOB futures remains exceptionally bullish, with Managed Money holding a net long position near the highest levels seen in the past two months. This is counterbalanced by an equally extreme net short position from Commercial participants, who are heavily hedged against high prices. The reporting week saw a modest reduction in the speculative net length, likely as profit-taking or liquidation during a mid-week price dip. However, with open interest remaining elevated and prices surging into the end of the week, the stage is set for a potential conflict between heavily committed speculators and commercial hedgers.

Positioning

• Managed Money: The speculative net long position stands at +77,784 contracts. This is a slight decrease from last week's +79,741 contracts, which was the most bullish stance in the provided historical data. Despite the small reduction, this positioning remains at a significant extreme, signaling strong bullish conviction among funds.
• Producer/Merchant (Commercials): Commercials hold a large net short position of -112,202 contracts. This is a slight reduction from their peak net short of -114,194 contracts last week. This heavy short posture indicates widespread hedging by physical market participants against a potential drop from current price levels.
• Swap Dealers: This group maintains a net long position of +10,218 contracts, slightly down from the prior week.

Flows and week-over-week changes

• Managed Money reduced their net long exposure by 1,957 contracts. This was driven primarily by long liquidation, with gross longs falling by 2,998 contracts, partially offset by a 1,041-contract reduction in gross shorts. This suggests some profit-taking or risk reduction during the week.
• Producer/Merchants bought back a net 1,992 contracts, reducing their overall short hedge. The move was composed of adding 1,791 new long contracts while covering only 201 short contracts.
• Other Reportables increased their net long position, adding 1,164 longs and 421 shorts.
• Non-Reportable (Retail) positions saw a small net reduction in their long exposure.

Commercials vs speculators

The market shows a classic and stark divergence between its main participants: - Speculators (Managed Money) are overwhelmingly positioned for higher prices. Their gross long positions (91,519) outnumber their gross short positions (13,735) by a ratio of nearly 6.7-to-1. - Commercials (Producer/Merchant) are positioned on the opposite side, providing liquidity and hedging their physical product. Their gross short position of 268,389 contracts substantially outweighs their long position of 156,187 contracts. - This dynamic creates a tense environment where the large speculative long is vulnerable to a washout, while the large commercial short is at risk of a short-covering squeeze if prices continue to rally.

Open interest and participation

• Open Interest (OI): Total open interest saw a marginal increase of 1,616 contracts, rising to 464,672 contracts. OI remains near the highs for the observed period, indicating high levels of engagement and capital in the market.
• Trader Participation: The bullish bet is widespread among funds, with 75 Managed Money traders holding long positions versus only 18 holding shorts. On the commercial side, participants are more evenly split, with 84 long and 95 short.
• Concentration: The short side shows significant concentration. The four largest traders hold 15.0% of the net short position, and the eight largest hold 20.4%. This suggests that a few major players are responsible for a significant portion of the commercial hedging.

Price context

The provided price series offers critical context for the week's positioning changes. - The COT report data is captured as of Tuesday, February 17th. In the week leading up to that date (from Feb 10 close of $1.9869 to Feb 17 close of $1.9225), the front-month contract price declined. - The reduction in Managed Money net length aligns with this period of price weakness, suggesting speculators trimmed positions as the market fell. - However, prices staged a sharp rally after the reporting period, surging from $1.9112 on Wednesday to close the week at $2.013 on Friday, February 20. This rally was not captured in this week's positioning data.

Risks and watchpoints

• Crowded Trade Risk: The extreme net long position held by Managed Money constitutes a crowded trade. This makes the market susceptible to a rapid and sharp sell-off if sentiment turns, as a simultaneous rush to exit these positions could accelerate a price decline.
• Post-Report Rally: The strong price rally on Feb 19-20 occurred after the positioning data was collected. The key question for next week's report will be whether Managed Money re-entered the market and extended their already extreme long positions by chasing this new strength.
• Commercial Hedging Pressure: The immense commercial short position may act as a ceiling on prices. Any further rallies will likely be met with increased selling/hedging from this group. Conversely, a sustained breakout above recent highs could force some of this cohort to cover shorts, adding further fuel to a rally.