Gasoline RBOB Futures Commitments of Traders - Week Ending 2026-02-06

Executive summary

This report covers positioning in the NYMEX Gasoline RBOB futures market as of February 6, 2026. Speculators significantly increased their bullish bets, pushing the Managed Money net long position to its highest level in over six weeks. This buying occurred despite a notable price decline during the reporting period, signaling a strong "buy-the-dip" conviction among funds. In contrast, Commercials (Producers/Merchants) moderately increased their net short hedge position, which remains near its recent extremes. Open interest continued its upward trend, rising by 4,820 contracts, indicating that new capital is entering the market and fueling this divergence between speculative and commercial players. The key dynamic is the growing tension between bullish speculators and heavily hedged commercials, setting the stage for potential volatility.

Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

• Managed Money: The speculative net long position increased to +67,731 contracts (92,829 long vs. 25,098 short). This is the largest net long position seen in the provided data, surpassing the +65,207 contracts held on January 30 and well above the recent low of +49,065 on January 9.
• Producer/Merchant (Commercials): Commercials remain heavily net short at -101,902 contracts (157,717 long vs. 259,619 short). This is the largest net short position in the last six weeks, indicating robust hedging activity from producers and merchants against potential price declines.
• Swap Dealers: This category holds a net long position of +13,045 contracts (41,453 long vs. 28,408 short), a slight decrease from the prior week.

Flows and week-over-week changes

The reporting week saw active positioning changes, primarily driven by Managed Money adding to bullish exposure. - Managed Money Flow: The net long position grew by 2,524 contracts. This was composed of both fresh buying (+1,403 new long contracts) and significant short-covering (-1,121 short contracts), a dual-pronged bullish signal. - Producer/Merchant Flow: Commercials modestly increased their net short position by 824 contracts. This was a result of liquidating 601 long contracts while adding 223 new short hedges. - Open Interest Flow: Total open interest rose by 4,820 contracts, confirming that the week's activity resulted in a net increase in market participation rather than just a transfer of risk between existing players.

Commercials vs speculators

The classic divergence between commercials and speculators is pronounced and growing. - Speculative Bullishness: Managed Money is positioned for higher prices, with their long positions (92,829) outnumbering their shorts by more than 3-to-1. Their willingness to add to this position during a week of falling prices is a strong indicator of their underlying bullish thesis. - Commercial Hedging: Producers/Merchants hold a dominant net short position, reflecting a strong industry-wide desire to lock in current prices for future gasoline production. Their gross short position of 259,619 contracts represents a massive 55.3% of the total short-side open interest.

Open interest and participation

• Total Open Interest: At 469,165 contracts, open interest is at the highest level in the provided six-week history, showing a clear trend of increasing engagement in the RBOB market since early January.
• Trader Participation: The market consists of 277 total reporting traders. Managed Money participation is notable, with 70 traders holding long positions versus only 22 holding short positions.
• Concentration: The market remains highly concentrated on the short side, typical for a producer-dominated market. The four largest traders hold a combined net short position equivalent to 13.9% of total open interest, a slight increase from 13.4% the prior week. The eight largest hold 21.1%. This underscores the influence of large commercial hedgers.

Price context

The price data provided shows a notable downturn during the reporting period (covering trade dates from January 31 through February 3). - The front-month contract closed at $1.9322 on January 30 (the end of the prior reporting period) and fell to $1.8452 by the close on February 3. - The fact that Managed Money added over 2,500 contracts to their net long position during this sharp price drop is a significant bullish divergence. Instead of liquidating in the face of losses, funds used the price weakness as an opportunity to increase their exposure.

Risks and watchpoints

• Crowded Speculative Long: The Managed Money net long position is at a multi-week peak. This makes the market vulnerable to a cascade of long liquidation if prices continue to fall, which could exacerbate any downward move.
• Speculator vs. Commercial Standoff: The primary tension is between bullish funds and heavily hedged commercials. This standoff cannot last indefinitely. A catalyst that favors the speculative view could force commercial shorts to cover, while further price weakness could trigger a washout of the crowded fund long.
• Rising Open Interest: The combination of rising prices (post-reporting period, on Feb 4-5) and rising open interest is a dynamic to watch. If prices rally and OI continues to climb, it would suggest the speculative buying pressure is overwhelming commercial hedging and confirming the bullish trend. Conversely, a price drop on rising OI would indicate aggressive new shorting.