Gasoline RBOB Futures COT Report: Week Ending January 9, 2026

Executive summary

This week's report reveals a notable divergence between price action and speculative positioning. While RBOB futures prices rallied sharply into the end of the reporting period, Managed Money reduced their net long position for the third consecutive week. This reduction was driven by fresh short selling, a bearish signal suggesting a lack of conviction in the rally's sustainability. Commercials, or Producer/Merchants, slightly increased their large net short hedge. Overall open interest rose, indicating new capital entered the market, but the conflicting flows between speculators and commercials create a tense and potentially volatile setup.

Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

• Managed Money: The net long position for this speculative category fell to +49,065 contracts. This continues a recent trend of declining bullishness, down from +52,631 contracts last week (Jan 5) and a recent high of +62,939 contracts two weeks ago (Dec 23).
• Producer/Merchant: This commercial category deepened its net short position slightly to -88,972 contracts, compared to -88,373 last week. This is a substantial hedge against falling prices and is consistent with levels from recent weeks.
• Swap Dealers: Increased their net long position to +14,633 contracts, up significantly from +10,113 in the prior report.

Flows and week-over-week changes

The most significant activity this week was the change in speculative sentiment. - Managed Money: Reduced their net long position by a total of 3,566 contracts. This was composed of a modest liquidation of long positions (-894 contracts) but a more aggressive addition of new short positions (+2,672 contracts). - Producer/Merchant: Exhibited two-way flow, adding both longs (+4,284 contracts) and a slightly larger number of shorts (+4,883 contracts). This resulted in a minor increase of 599 contracts to their net short position. - Swap Dealers: Covered a significant number of shorts (-2,837 contracts) while also adding new longs (+1,683 contracts), contributing to their growing net long stance.

Commercials vs speculators

The classic positioning dynamic is in full effect, but with a noteworthy divergence. - Commercials (Producer/Merchants) hold a large net short position (-88,972 contracts), representing 54.9% of all short positions in the market. This reflects robust hedging activity from producers and merchants at current price levels. - Speculators (Managed Money) remain the primary net long holders (+49,065 contracts). However, their recent activity of selling into strength—reducing their net long position during a rally—suggests this group is either taking profits or positioning for a potential reversal. This is a bearish divergence from the price trend.

Open interest and participation

• Open Interest: Total open interest increased by 10,520 contracts to 420,878. A rise in open interest during a price rally typically confirms the trend, but the underlying flows this week suggest a more complex picture, with significant new shorts being established by speculators.
• Trader Participation: The total number of reporting traders was stable at 267. Within Managed Money, the number of participants holding short positions increased by one to 25, while the number of long holders decreased by one to 66.
• Concentration: Market concentration among the largest traders remains stable. The top 4 traders by net position account for 7.7% of the long side and 13.8% of the short side, broadly in line with the previous week.

Price context

The provided price series shows a significant rally during the reporting week. The front-month contract closed at $1.7033 on January 5 (the date of the prior report) and, after some choppy trading, surged to close at $1.7774 on January 9. The most significant price gain occurred on the final day of the reporting period. The fact that Managed Money was a net seller during this strong upward move is a critical piece of context, indicating they used the rally as an opportunity to reduce bullish exposure.

Risks and watchpoints

• Speculator vs. Price Divergence: The primary watchpoint is that Managed Money sold into a strong rally. This is a bearish divergence that could foreshadow a potential price top or correction, as the key speculative cohort is not chasing the market higher.
• Fresh Short Selling: The addition of 2,672 new short contracts by Managed Money is a more aggressive signal than simple long liquidation would be. It indicates active bets on a price decline.
• Robust Commercial Hedging: The large and stable Producer/Merchant net short position signals that physical market participants see current prices as favorable for hedging future sales, which could act as a cap on further rallies.
• Potential for Volatility: The sharp price spike on the final day of the reporting period combined with rising open interest and conflicting flows sets the stage for potential volatility. If prices continue to rise, the newly established shorts may be forced to cover, adding fuel to the rally. Conversely, if the price falters, the lack of speculative buying support could lead to a swift pullback.