Gasoline RBOB Futures COT Report: Week Ending January 16, 2026

Executive summary

This week's report reveals a significant increase in bullish conviction among speculators, coinciding with a price rally. Managed Money added aggressively to their net long position through a combination of new longs and short-covering. This speculative buying was met by a substantial increase in hedging from Commercials, who expanded their net short position to the largest level in the past four weeks. The surge in overall open interest confirms that new capital entered the market, validating the strength of the move and setting up a classic battle between bullish speculators and price-selling producers.

Positioning

• Managed Money (Speculators): Net position increased to +57,380 contracts, up significantly from +49,065 contracts the prior week. This is the second-largest net long position in the provided four-week history, just shy of the +62,939 level seen on December 23.
• Producer/Merchant (Commercials): Net position moved further into short territory, reaching -95,892 contracts. This is the largest net short position over the last four weeks, extending from -88,972 contracts previously.
• Swap Dealers: Increased their net long position to +16,830 contracts, the highest level in the four-week period.

Flows and week-over-week changes

The market saw a substantial influx of new positions this week, with key participants taking opposing sides. - Managed Money was the primary buyer, increasing its net long position by 8,315 contracts. This was a particularly bullish flow, composed of adding 4,597 new long contracts while simultaneously cutting 3,718 short contracts. - Producers/Merchants were the main sellers, increasing their net short position by 6,920 contracts. This was driven by a massive addition of 22,658 new short (hedging) contracts, which outpaced the 15,738 new longs they also added. - Open Interest surged by 29,339 contracts, a robust increase that underscores the high level of activity and new capital entering the market during the week.

Commercials vs speculators

The classic divergence between commercials and speculators intensified this week. - Speculators (Managed Money) are positioned for further price gains, holding a large net long of 57,380 contracts. Their aggressive buying this week suggests strong confidence in the upside. - Commercials, who use futures to hedge physical market operations, are heavily net short at -95,892 contracts. Their move to a four-week high in net shorts indicates they are using the recent price strength as an opportunity to sell forward production and lock in prices. This cohort is now providing significant liquidity to speculative buyers.

Open interest and participation

• Total open interest rose to 450,217 contracts, the highest level in the provided historical data and a strong confirmation of the recent trend. Rising open interest alongside rising prices is typically considered a bullish technical signal.
• The total number of reportable traders increased from 267 to 272, showing broader participation.
• The concentration of positions on the short side remains higher than on the long side. The largest four traders hold 13.1% of the net short position, compared to 7.5% held by the four largest longs.

Price context

The positioning changes in this report align well with the price action observed during the reporting period (from the close of Jan 9 to the close of Jan 13). - The front-month RBOB contract rallied during the period covered by this report. The price moved from a close of $1.7774/gallon on Friday, Jan 9 to $1.8026/gallon on Tuesday, Jan 13, the as-of date for the position data. - The strong net buying from Managed Money correctly captured this upward move. The rally continued to a peak of $1.8236 on Jan 14 before pulling back slightly by the week's end on Jan 16.

Risks and watchpoints

• Crowded Speculative Long: The substantial increase in the Managed Money net long position makes the market vulnerable to a sharp correction if the bullish narrative changes. A rapid unwind of these long positions could accelerate any price decline.
• Commercial Selling Pressure: The record short position held by Commercials suggests a significant supply of hedging contracts is available at or above current price levels. This could act as a cap on further rallies.
• Open Interest as a Guide: The recent surge in open interest is bullish. A key watchpoint will be if this trend reverses. A decline in open interest accompanied by falling prices would signal long liquidation and could mark a near-term top.
• Widening Divergence: The growing chasm between speculator longs and commercial shorts highlights a mature trend. While this dynamic can persist, it increases the risk of volatility and sharp reversals.