Gasoline RBOB Futures: Commitments of Traders Brief for the week of January 5, 2026

Executive Summary

This report covers the two-week period ending January 5, 2026, which includes the holiday season. Speculative sentiment in Gasoline RBOB futures turned notably bearish as Managed Money significantly reduced their net long position. This was driven by both the liquidation of long contracts and the establishment of new shorts. Concurrently, Commercials (Producers/Merchants) slightly increased their large net short position. This shift in positioning occurred alongside a roughly 3% decline in the front-month contract price and a decrease in overall market participation, as reflected by lower Open Interest. The data points to building bearish momentum, with speculators reducing their upside exposure in a falling market.

Positioning

Net positions for major participant categories as of January 5, 2026:

• Managed Money: Net Long +52,631 contracts. This is a substantial reduction from their net long position of +62,939 contracts as of December 23, 2025.
• Producer/Merchant: Net Short -88,373 contracts. This represents a slight deepening of their net short position from -86,427 contracts two weeks prior.
• Swap Dealers: Net Long +10,113 contracts, a significant increase from their +2,743 net long position in the prior report.

Flows and Week-over-Week Changes

Over the two-week reporting period (from December 23, 2025 to January 5, 2026), the key changes in gross positioning were:

• Managed Money: Displayed a clear bearish shift. They reduced their gross long exposure from 82,666 to 78,239 contracts (-4,427) while simultaneously increasing their gross short positions from 19,727 to 25,608 contracts (+5,881). The combination of selling longs and adding shorts is a strong bearish signal.
• Producer/Merchant: Reduced activity on both sides of the market, though the long-side reduction was more pronounced. They cut gross longs by 5,990 contracts (from 143,861 to 137,871) and gross shorts by 4,044 contracts (from 230,288 to 226,244). This resulted in their net short position growing slightly.
• Swap Dealers: The most significant change was a large reduction in their short positions, which fell by 6,771 contracts (from 31,491 to 24,720). Their long positions saw a minor increase of 599 contracts. This activity was the primary driver of their increased net length.

Commercials vs Speculators

The classic market structure of hedgers versus speculators remains evident.

• Commercials (Producers/Merchants) hold a dominant net short position of -88,373 contracts. Their gross short position of 226,244 contracts, representing 55.1% of the total short side of the market, underscores the significant hedging pressure from producers against potential price declines.
• Speculators (Managed Money) are the primary counterparty, holding a net long of +52,631 contracts. While still a sizeable bullish bet, the recent flow indicates a strong unwinding of this conviction. The 10,308-contract reduction in their net length over two weeks is a significant bearish rotation.

Open Interest and Participation

• Open Interest (OI): Total market participation declined over the period. OI stood at 410,358 contracts, down from 422,857 two weeks prior. The single-week change reported was a decrease of 8,830 contracts, confirming that capital is leaving the market. A drop in OI alongside a price decline is typically seen as a confirmation of the bearish trend.
• Concentration: The market shows moderate concentration on the short side. The largest 4 traders hold 14.0% of the net short position, and the largest 8 hold 21.1%. This is more concentrated than the long side, where the top 4 and 8 traders hold 7.6% and 12.1% of the net long position, respectively.

Price Context

The provided price series aligns perfectly with the shift in positioning. * On the prior report date (December 23, 2025), the front-month contract closed at $1.7573. * On the current report date (January 5, 2026), the price closed at $1.7033. * This represents a price decline of approximately 3.1% over the two-week period. The bearish positioning shift by Managed Money (selling longs, adding shorts) and the drop in Open Interest occurred as prices were actively falling, suggesting speculative selling contributed to or accelerated the downward price move.

Risks and Watchpoints

• Bearish Momentum: The confluence of spec long liquidation, new short initiation, falling prices, and declining Open Interest points to sustained bearish momentum in the near term.
• Remaining Speculative Length: Despite the recent reduction, the Managed Money net long position of +52,631 contracts is still significant. Should prices continue to weaken, there is substantial room for further long liquidation, which could act as an accelerant to the downside.
• Commercial Floor: The large net short position held by commercials provides a potential floor. A sharp price drop could incentivize this group to buy back hedges, providing support. However, their position was relatively stable, suggesting they are not yet being forced to cover.
• Holiday Reporting: The data spans a holiday period, which can sometimes feature lower liquidity and non-representative positioning changes. The trend should be confirmed in subsequent reports.