Feeder Cattle COT Report: Week of October 2, 2026

Executive summary

The CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders report for Feeder Cattle (FC) futures for the week ending October 2, 2026, reveals modest position rebuilding following several months of liquidation. Total open interest stabilized at 62,168 contracts (+185 WoW), holding well below the 2026 peaks near 79,000 contracts recorded in February.

Managed money traders added to both sides of the book, expanding gross longs by 1,122 contracts and gross shorts by 961 contracts, leaving net speculative length slightly higher at +8,166 contracts (up from +8,005 the previous week). Commercial participants (producers/merchants) expanded their net short position by 1,082 contracts to -2,909, while swap dealers bolstered net longs by 907 contracts to +6,960. Overall market participation remains suppressed, with total trader counts at 214, near the lowest levels seen in the dataset.

Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)

• Managed Money: Net long of 8,166 contracts (17,364 longs vs. 9,198 shorts), plus 10,252 spreading contracts. This represents 27.9% of gross long open interest and 14.8% of gross short open interest.
  • Historical Context: Managed money net length remains near the lower end of its 2026 range. Net positioning peaked in mid-April 2026 at +21,951 contracts (28,402 longs vs. 6,451 shorts) and touched a summer low of +7,211 contracts on September 18, 2026.
• Producer/Merchant: Net short of 2,909 contracts (7,111 longs vs. 10,020 shorts).
  • Historical Context: Commercial hedging remains historically light. Earlier in the year (February–March 2026), producer/merchant gross short positions consistently exceeded 15,000 contracts, with net short exposure reaching as high as -8,662 contracts in late February.
• Swap Dealers: Net long of 6,960 contracts (7,204 longs vs. 244 shorts). Net long exposure is near the upper end of its annual range, which saw gross longs bottom at 4,461 in early April 2026 before steadily rising past 8,000 contracts in July and August.
• Other Reportables: Net short of 10,247 contracts (2,408 longs vs. 12,655 shorts, with 6,514 spreading).
• Nonreportable (Small Traders): Net short of 1,970 contracts (9,596 longs vs. 11,566 shorts).

Flows and week-over-week changes

Trader Category	Gross Long Change	Gross Short Change	Net Flow (WoW)	Spreading Change
Managed Money	+1,122	+961	+161	-1,276
Producer/Merchant	-709	+373	-1,082	—
Swap Dealers	+530	-377	+907	-252
Other Reportables	+725	-1,492	+2,217	+1,009
Nonreportable	-964	+1,239	-2,203	—

Key flow highlights: - Speculative Gross Expansion: Managed money added 1,122 longs and 961 shorts simultaneously while pulling 1,276 contracts out of spreading strategies, indicating an emergence of directional divergence among trend-following and macro funds. - Commercial Hedging: Producers and merchants reduced longs by 709 contracts and added 373 shorts, resulting in a net flow of -1,082 contracts. - Other Reportables Short Covering: Other reportable market participants covered 1,492 short contracts while adding 725 longs, reducing their heavy net short exposure by 2,217 contracts.

Commercials vs speculators

Managed Money Net:      [======>              ] +8,166 contracts
Swap Dealers Net:       [=====>               ] +6,960 contracts
Commercial Hedgers Net: [  <==                ] -2,909 contracts
Other Reportables Net:  [<========            ] -10,247 contracts
Nonreportable Net:      [  <=                 ] -1,970 contracts

• Speculative Stance: Speculators hold a net long stance but lack the conviction seen during the Q1 and early Q2 bull cycle. Managed money long concentration has receded from 44.3% of total open interest in early May to 27.9%.
• Commercial Hedging Stance: Producers and merchants maintain a comparatively light hedge footprint, accounting for just 16.1% of gross short open interest (10,020 contracts), compared to over 20% in Q1 2026.
• Swap Dealer Offset: Swap dealers continue to operate primarily as long liquidity providers (holding 11.6% of open interest on the long side against just 0.4% short), offsetting short hedges from other reportable entities and nonreportable retail traders.

Open interest and participation

• Total Open Interest: 62,168 contracts, an increase of 185 contracts (+0.3% WoW).
• Trend in Open Interest: Open interest remains subdued compared to the annual high of 79,277 contracts set on February 6, 2026, and is down 21.6% from that peak.
• Trader Breadth: The total number of reporting traders stands at 214, down from 224 the prior week and well below the peak participation of 296 traders recorded in late February 2026.
  • Managed Money: 22 longs, 35 shorts, 23 spreading (total distinct funds active has declined substantially since February, when managed money long counts regularly topped 50–60 traders).
  • Producer/Merchant: 38 longs, 49 shorts (down from 60 longs and 96 shorts in early March).
• Concentration:
  • Top 4 traders hold 12.2% of net longs and 17.9% of net shorts (gross: 14.8% long, 19.0% short).
  • Top 8 traders hold 19.1% of net longs and 24.5% of net shorts (gross: 24.7% long, 28.1% short).

Price context

Notice: Daily price series quotes are missing or unavailable in the dataset for this reporting window.

Historical positioning context shows that open interest and speculative length contracted together between May and September 2026, moving from a heavy managed money long bias (29,123 longs vs. 8,602 shorts on May 8) down to a relatively balanced regime (~16,000–17,000 longs vs. ~8,000–9,000 shorts). The stabilization of open interest at ~62,000 contracts over the past two reporting cycles suggests the multi-month liquidation phase has paused.

Risks and watchpoints

• Speculative Re-engagement: Managed money trader counts remain low (22 longs vs. 35 shorts). If trend signals flip positive, the low baseline positioning leaves room for rapid long addition, which could trigger sharp upward momentum.
• Light Commercial Hedge Buffer: With producer/merchant gross short positions sitting at only 10,020 contracts—near the lowest levels of the year—commercial capacity to absorb aggressive fund buying without substantial price slippage is reduced.
• Participation Contraction: Total market participation (214 traders) is at a multi-month low. Thinner market depth increases the risk of outsized volatility on unexpected supply or demand shocks in the physical cattle complex.