Cotton COT — Week of November 6, 2026
Cotton — COT Positioning Report: Week Ended November 6, 2026
Executive summary
The CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders report for Cotton No. 2 (CT) for the week ended November 6, 2026, highlights a market undergoing a continued shift away from peak speculative bullishness. Managed Money trimmed net length to +44,168 contracts (long 69,927 vs. short 25,759), a sharp pullback from late-summer peaks when net spec length surpassed +100,000 contracts. Commercial producers and merchants covered significant gross short exposure (-11,945 contracts) while also shedding longs (-6,320 contracts), settling at a net short posture of -115,905 contracts. Total open interest contracted by 9,948 contracts to 388,040, down from late-October highs of 401,293, indicating position liquidations across major participant groups rather than aggressive new trend initiation.
Positioning (net, extremes vs recent weeks)
Positioning across the major categories reflects ongoing decompression from multi-month net extremes:
- Managed Money:
- Gross Long: 69,927 contracts (18.0% of total open interest)
- Gross Short: 25,759 contracts (6.6% of open interest)
- Spreading: 50,181 contracts (12.9% of open interest)
- Net Position: +44,168 contracts long.
- Recent Extremes: Net speculative length stood at a massive +100,963 contracts on September 4, 2026 (115,804 long vs. 14,841 short) and +47,877 contracts on October 30, 2026. The current net long of +44,168 is the lowest net length seen since early spring (April 17, 2026 at +13,116 net long, and prior net short regimes in late 2025/early 2026).
- Producer/Merchant/Processor/User:
- Gross Long: 88,496 contracts (22.8% of open interest)
- Gross Short: 204,401 contracts (52.7% of open interest)
- Net Position: -115,905 contracts short.
- Recent Extremes: Commercial net short positioning has moderated significantly from early autumn peaks, where net producer shorts reached -178,611 contracts on September 4, 2026 and -170,485 on August 28, 2026.
- Swap Dealers:
- Gross Long: 61,680 contracts (15.9%)
- Gross Short: 23,141 contracts (6.0%)
- Spreading: 22,076 contracts (5.7%)
- Net Position: +38,539 contracts long, expanding slightly from +35,612 contracts the previous week.
- Other Reportables:
- Gross Long: 48,077 contracts (12.4%)
- Gross Short: 16,047 contracts (4.1%)
- Spreading: 34,774 contracts (9.0%)
- Net Position: +32,030 contracts long.
Flows and week-over-week changes
Total market open interest dropped by 9,948 contracts to 388,040 (-2.5%). Week-over-week adjustments by trader category revealed notable flow divergences:
| Category | Long Change | Short Change | Spreading Change | Net Flow Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Managed Money | +608 | +4,317 | -2,336 | -3,709 (Net Short Shift) |
| Producer/Merchant | -6,320 | -11,945 | — | +5,625 (Short Covering) |
| Swap Dealers | +637 | -2,290 | -5 | +2,927 (Net Long Shift) |
| Other Reportables | -4,170 | -1,599 | +2,338 | -2,571 (Net Short Shift) |
| Non-Reportable | -700 | +1,572 | — | -2,272 (Net Short Shift) |
The dominant flow in the market was commercial gross short covering (-11,945 contracts), offset partially by a reduction in producer long positions (-6,320 contracts). Meanwhile, speculative funds continued to build gross shorts (+4,317) while adding only marginally to longs (+608), driving the fourth consecutive week of net speculative cooling.
Commercials vs speculators
The structural tension between commercial hedging and speculative sentiment has loosened noticeably over recent weeks:
- Managed Money De-risking: After holding more than 115,000 gross long contracts in early September, money managers now hold 69,927 longs. The managed money short count has risen from an autumn trough of 12,323 contracts (September 18) to 25,759 contracts, reflecting growing hedge fund participation on the sell side.
- Producer Hedging Relief: As speculators pulled back, producers scaled back gross short hedges by 25,714 contracts across the two weeks ending November 6 (falling from 230,115 contracts on October 23 to 216,346 on October 30, down to 204,401 contracts currently).
- Swap Dealer Buffer: Swap dealers continue to operate as an absorber of commercial flows, maintaining a consistent long net position (+38,539 contracts), driven by consumer and index-linked swap exposure.
Open interest and participation
Participation metrics indicate a contraction in total leverage and trader depth:
- Aggregate Open Interest: Open interest stands at 388,040 contracts, retreating from the 2026 high of 401,293 reached on October 23.
- Trader Breadth:
- Total reporting traders across all categories held steady at 340 (vs. 341 in the prior week).
- Long managed money trader count fell to 75 (down from 77 on October 30 and 108 in early September), while short managed money counts rose to 42 (up from 38 on October 30 and 19 in mid-September).
- Concentration Ratios:
- Top 4 Traders: Account for 9.4% of net longs and 19.7% of net shorts (gross: 12.8% long, 25.9% short).
- Top 8 Traders: Account for 14.8% of net longs and 26.2% of net shorts (gross: 20.3% long, 36.0% short).
- Concentration on the short side has decreased noticeably compared to mid-October, when the top 4 net short traders held 23.4% to 26.1% and the top 8 held up to 34.9%, mirroring the recent scale-down of large commercial hedger positions.
Price context (only using provided series)
- Daily Price Series: No daily price series data was provided for this period. As a result, direct correlation between the latest weekly flow changes and contract price movement cannot be quantified from the current dataset.
Risks and watchpoints
- Managed Money Short Expansion: Managed money gross shorts have more than doubled from their September lows (from 12,323 on September 18 to 25,759 on November 6). If speculative short accumulation accelerates while gross longs continue to liquidate toward spring 2026 baselines (~40,000–50,000 contracts), the market risks slipping into a spec-driven net short posture similar to late 2025.
- Producer Short Covering Pace: The reduction of nearly 12,000 gross short contracts in a single week by producers suggests either lower commercial pricing incentives to hedge or physical delivery commitments being finalized. If commercial hedging pressure stabilizes here, downside resistance may build.
- Open Interest Momentum: Consecutive weekly declines in aggregate open interest (-3,305 contracts on October 30; -9,948 contracts on November 6) confirm money is exiting the cotton complex. A resumption of open interest growth alongside short additions would signal fresh directional trend commitment rather than late-cycle profit taking.